Selling to strategic and loss‐averse consumers: Stocking,procurement, and product design policies

Motivated by the presence of loss‐averse decision making behavior in practice, this article considers a supply chain consisting of a firm and strategic consumers who possess an S‐shaped loss‐averse utility function. In the model, consumers decide the purchase timing and the firm chooses the inventory level. We find that the loss‐averse consumers' strategic purchasing behavior is determined by their perceived gain and loss from strategic purchase delay, and the given rationing risk. Thus, the firm that is cognizant of this property tailors its inventory stocking policy based on the consumers' loss‐averse behavior such as their perceived values of gain and loss, and their sensitivity to them. We also demonstrate that the firm's equilibrium inventory stocking policy reflects both the economic logic of the traditional newsvendor inventory model, and the loss‐averse behavior of consumers. The equilibrium order quantity is significantly different from those derived from models that assume that the consumers are risk neutral and homogeneous in their valuations. We show that the firm that ignores strategic consumer's loss‐aversion behavior tends to keep an unnecessarily high inventory level that leads to excessive leftovers. Our numerical experiments further reveal that in some extreme cases the firm that ignores strategic consumer's loss‐aversion behavior generates almost 92% more leftovers than the firm that possesses consumers’ loss‐aversion information and takes it into account when making managerial decisions. To mitigate the consumer's forward‐looking behavior, we propose the adoption of the practice of agile supply chain management, which possesses the following attributes: (i) procuring inventory after observing real‐time demand information, (ii) enhanced design (which maintains the current production mix but improves the product performance to a higher level), and (iii) customized design (which maintains the current performance level but increases the variety of the current production line to meet consumers’ specific demands). We show that such a practice can induce the consumer to make early purchases by increasing their rationing risk, increasing the product value, or diversifying the product line. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 435–453, 2015     

泵喷推进器线谱非定常推力预报方法与试验验证

为预报泵喷推进器转子与周期性前导叶尾流互作用线谱非定常推力,忽略泵喷推进器转子叶片厚度,将泵喷转子简化为环形叶栅,根据片条理论,在半径r处截取泵喷转子分段,忽略流场参数沿分段径向的变化,从而可将该环形叶栅分段视为平面叶栅,在平面叶栅与简谐波互作用的基础上考虑周期性进流,推导得到前导叶分段与转子分段互作用线谱非定常激振力,转子分段周向积分得到非定常推力线谱预报公式,通过数值和试验方法验证公式的有效性。开展设计参数影响分析,得到当前导叶-转子间距与前导叶弦长的比值大于1时,转子-后导叶间距对转子单个叶片的激振力线谱推力几乎不存在影响。     

泵喷宽带非定常激振力预报与参数分析

为预报泵喷推进器转子与湍流互作用宽频非定常激振力,在Sears函数的基础上,考虑随机湍流波的影响,推导了螺旋桨宽频非定常激振力预报公式,并与实验值对比验证了该公式。进一步考虑泵喷推进器转子工作在前导叶尾流场的情况,通过Gauss尾流模型建立叶片尾流湍流波数谱,通过经验公式计算叶片尾流场参数。推导得到泵喷推进器转子宽频非定常激振力预报公式,通过公式计算得到的宽频非定常激振力与数值计算结果相近。分析了流场参数的变化对推进器转子宽频辐射噪声预报结果的影响。研究得到,湍流强度只影响宽频非定常激振力预报结果的幅值,湍流积分尺度对幅值和频谱形状都有较大的影响。     

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舰艇编队防空作战信息效用分析及度量模型

提出了信息生产-消费模型,对舰艇编队防空作战的信息效用进行了分析,建立了信息效用度量指标,根据幂指数方法建立了信息效用度量模型,并给出了应用实例。     

水下目标辐射噪声高精度仿真方法

在对水下高速运动目标实测辐射噪声数据频谱特征充分分析的基础上,基于能量聚点理论建立了一种“平台型λ水平能量聚点”辐射噪声连续谱模型.利用该模型实现了对水下目标辐射噪声的仿真.首先,对离散化的λ取值分别计算其能量聚点频率区间,然后用谐波叠加法生成频带内的时域信号,将所有频带的信号进行叠加就得到辐射噪声的时域信号,与传统的...     

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首次提出极化域-空域联合谱的概念,拓广了电磁波特征参量的谱描述方法.结合具体的极化敏感阵列定义了极化域-空域联合谱,用MUSIC方法得到联合谱函数表达式.研究了联合谱的估计的重要性能指标估计精度和分辨力,估计精度用克拉美劳限CRB(cramer-Rao Bound)来具体度量,分辨力由极化域-空域模糊函数以及模糊图来描述.最后仿真结果验证了该方法的有效性和理论分析的正确性.     

基于CZT的频谱细化算法及应用

针对复杂信号频域特征提取问题,利用Delphi语言编写了Zoom-FFT和基于CZT的频谱细化方法应用软件,以某型坦克传动箱振动速度信号为例进行了对比分析,验证了算法的有效性和程序设计的正确性。结果表明：基于CZT的频谱细化方法具有运算效率高、细化效果好等优点,可以在复杂信号分析中推广应用。     

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碳氢化合物红外光谱特征吸收主要为甲基、亚甲基等结构基团的振动吸收,特征性不强,但C—C主链红外光谱振动吸收能表达不同碳氢化合物的分子结构特征。应用碳氢化合物红外光谱指纹区谱图形貌特征,建立了根据C—C主链红外光谱识别碳氢化合物的方法。研究结果表明,采用指纹区提供的特征信息能够实现对不同结构碳氢化合物的识别,准确率高达99%,优于采用碳氢化合物甲基、亚甲基等结构基团的红外光谱振动吸收信息获得的识别结果。