An adaptive forecasting algorithm and inventory policy for products with short life cycles

Products with short life cycles are becoming increasingly common in many industries, such as the personal computer (PC) and mobile phone industries. Traditional forecasting methods and inventory policies can be inappropriate for forecasting demand and managing inventory for a product with a short life cycle because they usually do not take into account the characteristics of the product life cycle. This can result in inaccurate forecasts, high inventory cost, and low service levels. Besides, many forecasting methods require a significant demand history, which is available only after the product has been sold for some time. In this paper, we present an adaptive forecasting algorithm with two characteristics. First, it uses structural knowledge on the product life cycle to model the demand. Second, it combines knowledge on the demand that is available prior to the launch of the product with actual demand data that become available after the introduction of the product to generate and update demand forecasts. Based on the forecasting algorithm, we develop an optimal inventory policy. Since the optimal inventory policy is computationally expensive, we propose three heuristics and show in a numerical study that one of the heuristics generates near‐optimal solutions. The evaluation of our approach is based on demand data from a leading PC manufacturer in the United States, where the forecasting algorithm has been implemented. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

Exact likelihood inference for the exponential distribution under generalized Type‐I and Type‐II hybrid censoring

Chen and Bhattacharyya [Exact confidence bounds for an exponential parameter under hybrid censoring, Commun Statist Theory Methods 17 (1988), 1857–1870] considered a hybrid censoring scheme and obtained the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mean of an exponential distribution along with an exact lower confidence bound. Childs et al. [Exact likelihood inference based on Type‐I and Type‐II hybrid censored samples from the exponential distribution, Ann Inst Statist Math 55 (2003), 319–330] recently derived an alternative simpler expression for the distribution of the MLE. These authors also proposed a new hybrid censoring scheme and derived similar results for the exponential model. In this paper, we propose two generalized hybrid censoring schemes which have some advantages over the hybrid censoring schemes already discussed in the literature. We then derive the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator as well as exact confidence intervals for the mean of the exponential distribution under these generalized hybrid censoring schemes. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

A general approach to the shape of failure rate and MRL functions

Failure rate and mean residual life are two important characteristics for studying reliability of products. In literature, some work studied the shape of failure rate function based on the knowledge of the associated probability density function; some other work investigated the shape of mean residual life function based on the shape of the associated failure rate function separately for continuous case and discrete case. In this article, a general approach is developed which can be applied to the aforementioned studies. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Optimal pricing for a short life‐cycle product when customer price‐sensitivity varies over time

Technology products often experience a life‐cycle demand pattern that resembles a diffusion process, with weak demand in the beginning and the end of the life cycle and high demand intensity in between. The customer price‐sensitivity also changes over the life cycle of the product. We study the prespecified pricing decision for a product that exhibits such demand characteristics. In particular, we determine the optimal set of discrete prices and the times to switch from one price to another, when a limited number of price changes are allowed. Our study shows that the optimal prices and switching times show interesting patterns that depend on the product's demand pattern and the change in the customers' price sensitivity over the life cycle of the product. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

论校园文化建设的思想与实践——基于华山中学校园文化建设活动的系列思考之四

校园环境是校园文化建设的主要载体、主要内容和主要表现形式。从校园文化建设的高度出发,校园环境将不再是传统观念中所理解的那种简单的空间概念,进行环境建设必须从文化建设的思路去认识和思考,而进行文化建设也必须依靠环境建设的内容来表达和实现,二者不可分割,这反映了物质与意识的辩证关系。校园环境建设中精神环境的概念需要单独提出来,它是校园文化建设的重要内容,更是校园文化建设的难点。华山中学在校园环境建设方面有着自身的理解和认识,做出了一些有益的尝试,今后还将在这方面进行更深入地探寻,努力打造富有生命力和自身特色的校园文化。     

基于神经网络的库存枪弹储存寿命预测研究

对某型单基发射药库存枪弹的理化性能、内弹道性能变化规律和储存寿命进行了初步研究。分析了库存枪弹储存寿命的影响因素 ,建立了库存枪弹储存寿命和影响因素变化规律的神经网络模型 ,并用此模型预测了库存枪弹的储存寿命。     

The NBUL class of life distribution and replacement policy comparisons

Let X and X_τ denote the lifetime and the residual life at age τ of a system, respectively. X is said to be a NBUL random variable if X_τ is smaller than X in Laplace order, i.e., X_τ ≤_L X. We obtain some characterizations for this class of life distribution by means of the lifetime of a series system and the residual life at random time. We also discuss preservation properties for this class of life distribution under shock models. Finally, under the assumption that the lifetimes have the NBUL property, we make stochastic comparisons between some basic replacement policies. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 578–591, 2001.     

中锰铸钢坦克履带板连接筋的喷丸强化处理

针对新研制的中锰铸钢坦克履带板装车考核中的特点,提出了对连接筋实施喷丸强化处理的预强化方案.分析了喷丸强化层的组织和硬化特性;还通过连接筋的3点弯曲疲劳试验,探讨了喷丸强化对连接筋疲劳裂纹形成的影响.研究认为,对中锰铸钢坦克履带板连接筋进行喷丸强化预处理,是提高其整体使用寿命的重要途径.     

高原卫士奉献精神的哲学反思

立足推进人类社会精神文明建设和加强部队思想建设,把高原卫士作为认识对象,运用马克思认识论和实践观,分析高原卫士在特殊环境里所具备的那种高尚品格和生命价值观。在阐述高原卫士奉献精神本质、内涵,及其实践效果的基础上,追问奉献精神产生的双重根源,指出:高原卫士可贵之处是奉献,人类文明需要可贵的奉献精神。     

通用装备维修保障资源需求仿真建模研究

从新型通用装备维修保障的实际需求出发,在对维修保障系统运行过程分析的基础上,建立了维修资源需求的仿真模型,并给出了相关算法。该模型可实现对各种主要维修资源需求的预测,并能给出装备完好率、备件缺货率和装备待修时间等系统特征指标。该模型和算法可为装备的维修保障提供科学的依据。