基于正交最小二乘估计的非线性时间序列的预测

在对非线性时间序列的短期预测中经常采用局部线性化的预测算法 ,原有的算法使用普通最小二乘法 (LS)估计近似线性模型的参数。对于存在噪声的数据 ,该算法的数值稳定性较差。本文在对非线性空间进行局部线性化的基础上 ,采用正交最小二乘方法 (OLS)对线性模型同时进行结构选择与参数辨识 ,改善了数值的病态特性 ,增强了算法的稳定性     

Workload distribution of discrete‐time parallel queues with two servers

We study discrete‐time, parallel queues with two identical servers. Customers arrive randomly at the system and join the queue with the shortest workload that is defined as the total service time required for the server to complete all the customers in the queue. The arrivals are assumed to follow a geometric distribution and the service times are assumed to have a general distribution. It is a no‐jockeying queue. The two‐dimensional state space is truncated into a banded array. The resulting modified queue is studied using the method of probability generating function (pgf) The workload distribution in steady state is obtained in form of pgf. A special case where the service time is a deterministic constant is further investigated. Numerical examples are illustrated. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 440–454, 2000     

浮式振荡立轴叶轮的三维效应影响

为研究振荡运动下立轴水轮机的三维效应影响,采用ANSYS CFX软件三维模拟立轴水轮机在不同展弦下的振荡运动（横荡、纵荡）,并与二维模拟的立轴水轮机作对比,通过最小二乘法拟合计算得到水轮机推力和侧向力系数时域结果,分析得到不同展弦比下水轮机阻尼系数和附加质量系数。结果表明：随着展弦比增大,叶轮潮流能的转换效率逐渐增大;三维振荡叶轮的水动力载荷与叶轮展长呈正相关,当展弦比达到10时其水动力载荷及能量转换效率和二维的计算结果相当;三维水轮机水动力系数常数项和阻尼项随展弦比增大而增大。     

内表面间垂直度的高精度测量方法设计与误差分析

针对框体类零件超精密加工的难点问题--内表面问垂直度误差的高精度测量,提出了一种基于波面干涉技术测量的新方法,建立了垂直度测量系统,分析了各调整误差对测量结果的影响.该方法能够实现框体类零件内表面间垂直度误差的高精度测量与评价,并能得到误差的三维分布,测量结果可直接用于零件的确定性修形加工.实验表明,该方法可实现0.6"的综合测量精度.     

控制不等式的改进

讨论了随机过程控制关系产生的不等式,对这个不等式给出了一个新系数,改进了以前的结果,并将其应用于局部平方可积鞅.     

农业自然经济的挽歌社会历史发展的必然——鲁彦小说《黄金》读解

创作于上个世纪二十年代的乡土小说<黄金>,描写了生活在乡村的一家农户,怎样由小康而堕入贫困,因此受尽了乡邻的轻蔑和冷漠.它写出了中国的农业自然经济社会受到了资本主义文明的侵蚀,引起了人与人之间关系的深刻变化.由此揭示了中国乡村经济破产的必然和主人公悲剧命运产生的根源--虽然带着深深的叹惋,但却是一种无可奈何的历史必然.     

二维正方点阵液态声子晶体的带隙计算

介绍了计算二维正方点阵液态声子晶体带隙的PWM法。在四氯化碳/水银复合体系中发现了完全带隙,当四氯化碳填充分数为约22%时带隙宽度达到最大值。研究了三种不同截面形状的填充物,其中,圆形截面填充物体系比方形截面及其45°旋转的体系更有利于产生宽带隙。对圆形截面填充物体系,当填充分数为f=0 229时有最宽带隙ΔΩ=0 5497。将填充物和基体交换,即水银/四氯化化碳复合体系中,所得到的带隙宽度显著减小。     

泛函在射表逼近中的应用

运用泛函理论,对方差最小原则下射表逼近进行分析,给出了在给定基函数形式条件下的统一计算公式,并对最小二乘方法作了改进,消除系数矩阵的原理误差,给出了提高精度的方法。最后,提出了一个选择基函数的有效方法。     

The deformation and failure mechanism of cylindrical shell and square plate with pre-formed holes under blast loading

The deformation and failure mechanism of cylindrical shells and square plate with pre-formed holes under blast loading were investigated numerically by employing the Ansys 17.0 and Ls-Dyna 971. To calibrate the numerical model, the experiments of square plates with pre-formed circle holes were modeled and the numerical results have a good agreement with the experiment data. The calibrated numerical model was used to study the deformation and failure mechanism of cylindrical shells with pre-formed circle holes subjected to blast loading. The structure response and stress field changing process has been divided into four specific stages and the deformation mechanism has been discussed systematically. The local and global deformation curves, degree of damage, change of stress status and failure modes of cylindrical shell and square plate with pre-formed circular holes are obtained, compared and analyzed, it can be concluded as: (1) The transition of tensile stress fields is due to the geometrical characteristic of pre-formed holes and cylindrical shell with arch configuration; (2) The existence of pre-formed holes not only lead to the increasing of stress concentration around the holes, but also release the stress concentration during whole response process; (3) There are three and two kinds of failure modes for square plate and cylindrical shell with pre-formed holes, respectively. and the standoff distance has a key influence on the forming location of the crack initiating point and the locus of crack propagation; (4) The square plate with pre-formed holes has a better performance than cylindrical shell on blast-resistant capability at a smaller standoff distance, while the influence of pre-formed holes on the reduction of blast-resistant capability of square plate is bigger than that of cylindrical shell.     

钢管初应力对方钢管混凝土构件性能的影响研究

在14根方钢管混凝土构件试验的基础上,分析了初应力系数、荷载偏心率、混凝土强度、试件长细比等因素对承载力的影响,给出了钢管初应力对方钢管混凝土压弯构件承载力的影响系数,采用ANSYS有限元分析程序进行了非线性全过程分析.