Country Survey XIII: Japan's security posture and defense industry prospects

Defense budgets in Japan have been complicated compromises from numerous inputs ‐ including threat perceptions, domestic industrial/technological base development, support for the bilateral security treaty with the United States and internal bureaucratic politics ‐ but with the fall of the former Soviet Union, the clearest justification for higher spending disappeared. Double‐digit defense spending increases that were common in the 1980s have been replaced by annual increases lower than present inflation rates, resulting in negative real growth in the country's defense budget. Domestic economic problems and consistent government pressures for smaller budgets have further slowed annual growth in total spending and have contributed to lower procurement budgets. As a result, the domestic Japanese defense industry is facing far more constrained conditions from the growth years of a decade before.

Government policymakers are examining Japan's regional security environment as well as its alliance with the United States to determine the appropriate course for the country to take in the coming years. The formal security treaty with the United States is likely to remain a major element of government positions, but other aspects of the country's overall security posture are open to debate. Perceptions of a reduced threat environment are fueling additional pressures for defense budget cuts.

The domestic defense industry seeks means to assure its survival in domestic defense markets in this constrained environment. Expansion into overseas markets to offset declining domestic markets is an option that currently is constrained by policy restrictions on arms exports. Industry is advocating re‐examination of those policies and unlike earlier years, government appears willing to respond positively but cautiously to this lobbying.     

AD HOC TRIBUNALS IN AFRICA

International judicial norms developed slowly during the Cold War but have recently begun to draw on the experiences of the Criminal Tribunal in the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda. These ad hoc bodies had to respond quickly to emergency situations by combining different international approaches to justice and prosecution. The Special Court for Sierra Leone is the latest of these experiments. Despite having had more time for reflective discussion and negotiation, the Special Court faces the same challenge and constraint: the parameters of time and resources are set by political imperatives. The International Criminal Court goes some way to addressing the problems of funding, good judicial appointments and contrasting legal systems, the details of future trials will not be easy. Ad hoc tribunals will probably still have a role to play in cases where the ICC cannot intervene.     

Determinants of military expenditure and the role of globalisation in a cross-country analysis

Abstract

Anecdotal evidence offers conflicting views on the impact of globalisation on military expenditure. We contribute to the existing literature by investigating the effect of globalisation on military expenditure in 82 countries for the period, 1989–2012. After introducing economic and strategic variables into the model, we utilise the dynamic panel generalised method of moments system to estimate the relationship in the variables. The empirical findings reveal that globalisation reduces both military burden and real military expenditure. The findings are consistent, irrespective of the globalisation indicator adopted. The policy implications of the results are explained.     

舰艇防空火力规划与调度方法研究

根据舰艇防空武器拦截过程的时间连续性和拦截效果的不确定性特点,提出了智能规划和优化调度相结合的舰艇防空计划生成方法。在规划阶段,先用智能规划描述语言PDDL对舰艇防空问题进行建模;针对新的来袭目标或观察的拦截结果,利用智能规划的高效行动推理能力,快速生成可能的备选行动方案;在优化调度阶段,对已生成的备选方案的行动系列进行时间、资源冲突处理,并计算选择出当前最佳拦截方案。与现有的采用离散化处理的武器-目标分配方法相比,该规划与调度过程充分体现了拦截过程的连续性,拦截效果的不确定性,拦截过程中的武器协同,以及最佳拦截时机的选择等,更好地描述了舰艇防空的实际过程。最后,通过蒙特卡罗仿真试验,验证了算法的有效性,为舰艇的自动化防空提供了一种新的解决办法。     

求解WTA问题的智能算法评价准则

目前求解火力优化配置(WTA)问题的智能算法层出不穷,急需统一的算法评价准则来比较各算法的寻优能力,以得到相对更高精度、更高效率的算法.针对上述问题建立了完善的评价准则体系,从算法代码编制质量、算法精准度和算法执行效率3个方面对智能算法的寻优能力深入讨论,并给出了2个标准测试模型及其初始化参数.实例说明本评价准则科学合理,具有很高的实用价值.     

石英晶体测试实验中干扰的消除

Ｙ－切石英晶体的各向异性物理特性,使它在正碰撞或平面冲击波作用条件下能产生压剪波的传播,为实现对材料的压剪加载实验研究提供了条件。由于石英晶体的压电效应,国外采用了ＶＩＳＡＲ技术进行测试。在我们的工作中,首次尝试用锰铜压阻法和电磁质速测量法进行测试。压电效应造成了明显的干扰,妨碍信号的获取。实验中用磁控溅射方法将石英晶体表面镀银层约１μｍ,达到了中和极化电荷、屏蔽极化电场的目的,比较成功地消除了压电干扰,获得了有效的测试信号。     

惯性传感技术发展与展望

利用GPS辅助INS的系统已在各种应用领域崭露头角,这些新的应用领域将驱动市场对极低成本惯性传感器的大量需求。在回顾惯性传感技术的发展历程、研究热点、应用领域的基础上,讨论和展望了光纤陀螺仪、微机械陀螺仪和加速度计,以及微型光学传感器技术近期和远期的发展趋势。     

MEFP智能雷攻击坦克毁伤效能分析

以智能雷为研究对象,在建立智能雷扫描运动模型和命中毁伤模型的基础上,分析了MEFP智能雷攻击坦克的毁伤效能.通过建立攻击过程的蒙特卡洛模型,编制了智能雷攻击坦克目标的计算机仿真软件,计算了MEFP智能雷发射不同数目的EFP对坦克目标的毁伤概率.结果表明:MEFP智能雷攻击坦克目标的毁伤效能较高,可应用于对付大规模坦克装甲车辆的进攻和武装直升飞机的攻击.     

网络图书情报发展趋势之管见

随着科学技术的发展和网络应用的普及,网络已经成为人们工作和生活中不可或缺的重要组成部分。图书情报工作也同样步入了网络图书情报时代,为此,有关人员应对网络情报的基本理论,其发展趋势以及在我国目前的发展现状有所了解。