China's Nuclear Forces and Their Significance to India

The Indian nuclear program is a response to a perceived politico-strategic threat from China as opposed to a military-operational one that New Delhi began after perceiving an “ultimatum” from China in 1965. Consequently, India is in the process of acquiring an assured second-strike capability vis-à-vis China to meet the requirements of general deterrence. While India has always been concerned about the Sino-Pakistani nuclear/missile nexus, China has become wary of the growing military ties between the United States and India in recent years, especially because of the military implications of the US-India civil nuclear deal. Given the growing conventional military gap between the two states, India is not lowering its nuclear threshold to meet the Chinese conventional challenge. Instead, India is upgrading its conventional military strategy from dissuasion to deterrence against China. While the overall Sino-Indian nuclear relationship is stable, it will be challenged as China acquires advanced conventional weapons that blur the distinction between conventional and nuclear conflict.     

Pakistan's Evolving Nuclear Weapon Posture

This essay provides an overview of the ongoing quantitative and qualitative changes in Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and their impact on deterrence stability vis-à-vis India. Prominent among these trends is a major expansion in fissile material production that enables the manufacture of lighter and more compact warheads optimized for battlefield missions; the development of cruise missiles and shorter-range ballistic missiles possessing dual-use capabilities; and a greater emphasis in doctrinal pronouncements on the need for strike options geared to all levels of conflict. Although these trends pose problematic ramifications for the risks of unauthorized and inadvertent escalation, deterrence stability in South Asia is not as precarious as many observers fear. The challenges of fashioning a robust nuclear peace between India and Pakistan cannot be lightly dismissed, however, and policy makers would do well to undertake some reinforcing measures.     

Is the Indian Nuclear Tiger Changing Its Stripes?

Sixteen years after stepping out of the nuclear closet, India's nuclear posture, some of its operational practices, and hardware developments are beginning to mimic those of the original five nuclear weapon states. Several proliferation scholars in the United States contend that India's national security managers are poised to repeat the worst mistakes of the superpowers’ Cold War nuclear competition, with negative consequences for deterrence, crisis, and stability in South Asia and the Asia-Pacific region. This article takes a contrarian view. It dissects the best available data to show why the alarmist view is overstated. It argues that not only are the alarmists’ claims unsupported by evidence, their interpretation of the skeletal and often contradictory data threatens to construct the very threat they prophesize.     

超效率DEA模型在武器装备方案选择中的应用

针对武器装备方案选择过程中的常见问题,利用超效率DEA方法构建武器装备方案选择问题的综合评价模型.以雷达装备方案选择为例,从相对有效性和有效决策单元的排序两个方面,验证方法的正确性和可行性,从而为选择最适合我军作战需求的武器装备方案提供科学依据.     

基于奇异谱分析的盲源分离单通道语音增强算法研究

针对盲源分离算法无法直接对单路含噪语音信号进行分离的问题,提出一种基于奇异谱分析的盲源分离单通道语音增强算法.通过对单路含噪语音信号进行奇异谱分析,将其低频分量作为第二路观测信号,利用改进的最大信噪比盲源分离算法进行处理,从而实现语音信号和噪声的分离.实验结果表明,该算法能够有效抑制噪声,提高信噪比,起到良好的语音增强效果.     

一类随机生态-流行病系统的分析

对一类食饵染病的随机食饵-捕食者系统,应用伊藤公式,给出系统均衡解的全局随机渐近稳定的条件,并通过数值模拟对理论结果进行论证.     

装甲装备器材库存超(欠)储状态分析与程度评价

定义了装甲装备器材库存超(欠)储的概念,提出了维修保障资源点器材储存状态的定性判别和量化方法;考虑数量、时间、空间等影响因素,提出了资源点维修器材超(欠)储程度的评价指标和评价方法,并结合某军区实际数据进行了验证。结果表明:资源点的平均超(欠)储程度反映了保障体系内所有资源点库存偏离正常水平的平均程度,可为确定调剂资源点的优先次序和供应数量提供依据。     

基于单应轨迹的视频实时稳像算法

针对视频稳像中实时任务的需求特点,提出一种基于单应轨迹的视频稳像算法。估计序列图像帧间的单应变换,并将该变换作用于图像窗口的4个角点,从而对每帧图像产生4个短的单应轨迹以代表视频短时间内的运动。利用关联卡尔曼滤波器以一种连续方式对不同帧的单应轨迹进行平滑。对图像合成采用包括性和相似约束以提高结果视频的可观性质量。该算法以在线方式工作,消除了缓存输入图像帧导致的延迟,具备不依赖于复杂的3D重建和长距离特征跟踪的优点,并有效避免了单应模型表达视频运动模型的误差积累问题。实验表明该算法能够有效对包含2D和较复杂3D场景的视频进行稳像,并且能够达到实时处理速度。     

双转子活塞发动机差速驱动组件的动态静力学建模与分析*

针对双转子活塞发动机的工作特点,分析了其差速驱动组件的机构特性,定义了动力学参数,进而采用矢量力学方法对差速驱动组件的动态静力学进行数学建模。运用Matlab对所建理论模型进行数值计算,得出了主要部件的受力特征。为了验证所建数学模型的合理性,基于多体动力学仿真理论,在Recur Dyn环境下建立了双转子活塞发动机的虚拟样机模型,仿真结果与理论计算结果相比较,相应的约束反力的数值变化规律基本一致,都呈现4个周期的变化过程,冲击位置也基本相同,表明建立的动力学理论模型基本符合实际情况,是可信的,可以用作双转子活塞发动机改进设计的理论基础。     

破片对反辐射导弹战斗部毁伤效能仿真

分析了“哈姆”反辐射导弹目标特性及破片对其毁伤模式,建立了破片对反辐射导弹战斗部毁伤效能模型,研究了不同质量破片对反辐射导弹战斗部的穿透能力和引爆能力。仿真及试验结果表明：单枚破片质量为15g,速度在1700m/s以上,就足以对反辐射导弹战斗部达到解体性毁伤,它为未来反导弹药战斗部设计提供了重要参考。