The Requirements of Nuclear Stability in South Asia

While recent history arguably demonstrates a high level of nuclear stability in South Asia, this article argues that this stability has historically been a function of India's relative weakness. It argues that, as India becomes stronger, attention must be paid to the technical and political requirements of nuclear stability: the reliability of weapons and command and control and the political conditions that underpin stable relations between nuclear-armed states. It concludes by recommending the United States aim to modify the perceptions of regional elites about their various intentions and decision-making processes and the role of the United States as crisis manager.     

China's Nuclear Forces and Their Significance to India

The Indian nuclear program is a response to a perceived politico-strategic threat from China as opposed to a military-operational one that New Delhi began after perceiving an “ultimatum” from China in 1965. Consequently, India is in the process of acquiring an assured second-strike capability vis-à-vis China to meet the requirements of general deterrence. While India has always been concerned about the Sino-Pakistani nuclear/missile nexus, China has become wary of the growing military ties between the United States and India in recent years, especially because of the military implications of the US-India civil nuclear deal. Given the growing conventional military gap between the two states, India is not lowering its nuclear threshold to meet the Chinese conventional challenge. Instead, India is upgrading its conventional military strategy from dissuasion to deterrence against China. While the overall Sino-Indian nuclear relationship is stable, it will be challenged as China acquires advanced conventional weapons that blur the distinction between conventional and nuclear conflict.     

Pakistan's Evolving Nuclear Weapon Posture

This essay provides an overview of the ongoing quantitative and qualitative changes in Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and their impact on deterrence stability vis-à-vis India. Prominent among these trends is a major expansion in fissile material production that enables the manufacture of lighter and more compact warheads optimized for battlefield missions; the development of cruise missiles and shorter-range ballistic missiles possessing dual-use capabilities; and a greater emphasis in doctrinal pronouncements on the need for strike options geared to all levels of conflict. Although these trends pose problematic ramifications for the risks of unauthorized and inadvertent escalation, deterrence stability in South Asia is not as precarious as many observers fear. The challenges of fashioning a robust nuclear peace between India and Pakistan cannot be lightly dismissed, however, and policy makers would do well to undertake some reinforcing measures.     

Is the Indian Nuclear Tiger Changing Its Stripes?

Sixteen years after stepping out of the nuclear closet, India's nuclear posture, some of its operational practices, and hardware developments are beginning to mimic those of the original five nuclear weapon states. Several proliferation scholars in the United States contend that India's national security managers are poised to repeat the worst mistakes of the superpowers’ Cold War nuclear competition, with negative consequences for deterrence, crisis, and stability in South Asia and the Asia-Pacific region. This article takes a contrarian view. It dissects the best available data to show why the alarmist view is overstated. It argues that not only are the alarmists’ claims unsupported by evidence, their interpretation of the skeletal and often contradictory data threatens to construct the very threat they prophesize.     

一类随机生态-流行病系统的分析

对一类食饵染病的随机食饵-捕食者系统,应用伊藤公式,给出系统均衡解的全局随机渐近稳定的条件,并通过数值模拟对理论结果进行论证.     

微机械陀螺品质因数的在线测量方法

品质因数是决定微机械陀螺结构性能的重要参数。传统测量振动结构品质因数的幅频曲线半功率带宽法需要记录大量幅频响应数据并需作离线处理,测量效率很低。通过分析微机械陀螺动力学模型发现,品质因数可根据谐振频率及相频函数在谐振频率点处的一阶导数值计算,且相频曲线在谐振频率点附近近似为线性。利用这些特点,提出一种新的品质因数在线快速测量方法。首先,在谐振频率附近对陀螺进行激励,得到相频数据;然后,使用递推最小二乘法估计出相频曲线斜率;最后根据该斜率和谐振频率值计算出品质因数。新方法不需要存储和离线分析频率响应数据,可以自动确定品质因数。仿真和实验验证了本文方法的正确性和可行性。     

基于BWRS方程的压缩空气压缩因子计算

使用压缩空气作为介质进行流体计算时,为保证计算精度须考虑压缩因子的影响。为了精确得到压缩空气的压缩因子,对压缩因子的计算方法进行了研究。将空气简化为氮气与氧气的混合气体,通过3个真实气体状态方程计算压缩因子,并与已有数据进行比较,验证了将空气模型简化,再计算其压缩因子的方法是可行的。BWRS方程计算出的压缩因子精度较高,但在不同压力下的计算误差有较大差距。为进一步提高计算精度,考虑了偏心因子的影响,通过计算分析、经验修正,得到了精度较高的压缩因子计算算法,并进行了试验验证。结果表明：不同压力下改变偏心因子的数值对计算结果有不同程度的影响;改进后的BWRS方程计算精度得到了提高,从而验证了BWRS方程改进算法计算压缩因子的有效性和可行性。     

基于视景模拟的无人机导弹发射仿真

无人机单侧导弹发射后,无人机重量特性、重心位置、气动特性发生变化并同时产生附加的干扰力矩,无人机需要在控制系统作用下尽快恢复稳态飞行。通过在Matlab/Simulink中建立无人机六自由度非线性力学模型、控制系统模型、发动机模型、重力模型、标准大气模型、flight gear软件接口等,模拟仿真无人机单侧导弹发射过程,同时将仿真结果进行可视化视景输出,确保无人机系统平台在导弹发射过程中无人机能够很快恢复稳定姿态并按照预定轨迹飞行。视景模拟仿真结果表明：该无人机平台能够顺利完成导弹的安全发射。     

Analysis of workload of tank crew under the conditions of informatization

A consensus has been reached that the tanks need to be integrated into the informatization battlefield. With the development of technology, the tank crew has being gradually decreased, so the research on two-soldier crew tank has become a hotspot. The workload of tank crew under the conditions of informatization is analyzed based on the combat mission of tank and the typical combat scenarios, and the impact of new technologies on workload is evaluated. The crew members in tank can be reduced from three to two, but it is necessary to substantially improve the automation of target search and the reliability of each subsystem and component.     

非自治Lotka-Volterra竞争系统的持久性与正概周期解

利用微分不等式和Liapunov第二方法 ,研究了二维非自治Lotka -Volterra竞争系统的持久性与正概周期解的存在性、唯一性及全局渐近稳定性。