装备维护系统效能评估人素系数的建模与分析

传统的系统效能评估模型中,一般不考虑人的因素。然而,在国内外航空装备的维护过程中,由于人为失误引起的系统故障却占了相当大的比重。提出对人机系统效能评估的改进模型,并建立了装备维护系统效能评估中的人素系数模型,通过对人的可用性、可信性及固有能力的分析,得出了人素系数的确定方法。此系数的确定使航空装备维护管理部门能够更合理地进行装备维护系统的效能评估,有利于更好地组织配置人力资源。     

Van der Pol-Duffing系统的非共振Hopf分叉

用多尺度法求出了系统的一次近似平均方程和极坐标形成的分叉响应方程。研究了系统非共振情况下的平衡点性质和Hopf分叉,讨论了零解和极限环的稳定性     

受压带肋圆柱壳体固有振动频率和稳定性计算

论述了丧失舱段总稳定性是潜艇耐压壳体在深潜时的主要破坏模式 .并将振动屈曲理论应用于潜艇耐压壳体稳定性的研究 ,在 Donell公式的基础上 ,导出了带肋圆柱壳体的整体固有振动频率与壳体所受外界水压之间的关系表达式 ,据此解出带肋圆柱壳体整体失稳的理论压力值 .最后 ,将公式的计算结果、实验结果和有限元法的计算结果进行比较 ,得出几点结论 .     

血小板在凝血中作用的动力学模型

在生化实验的基础上提出了血小板在凝血中作用的动力学模型,通过定性分析和数值模拟,得到了血小板的激活比率、因子Ⅷ、Ⅸ对凝血酶生成有重要影响的一系列结论.     

Stability in a general oligopoly model

We analyze a general but parsimonious price competition model for an oligopoly in which each firm offers any number of products. The demand volumes are general piecewise affine functions of the full price vector, generated as the “regular” extension of a base set of affine functions. The model specifies a product assortment, along with their prices and demand volumes, in contrast to most commonly used demand models. We identify a fully best response operator which is monotonically increasing so that the market converges to a Nash equilibrium, when firms dynamically adjust their prices, as best responses to their competitors' prices, at least when starting in one of two price regions. Moreover, geometrically fast convergence to a common equilibrium can be guaranteed for an arbitrary starting point, under an additional condition for the price sensitivity matrix.     

Evolutionary determinants of war

This paper considers evolutionarily stable decisions about whether to initiate violent conflict rather than accepting a peaceful sharing outcome. Focusing on small sets of players such as countries in a geographically confined area, we use the concept of evolutionary stability in finite populations. We find that players’ evolutionarily stable preferences widen the range of peaceful resource allocations that are rejected in favor of violent conflict, compared to the Nash equilibrium outcomes. Relative advantages in fighting strength are reflected in the equilibrium set of peaceful resource allocations.     

某尾翼式火箭增程迫弹飞行失稳原因分析

针对某尾翼式火箭增程迫弹弹道飞行失稳的现象,建立了火箭增程迫弹的六自由度弹道模型,仿真分析了该弹丸的摆动角变化规律、全弹道静稳定度、动态稳定度,共振转速、平衡转速等,最终确定共振为该弹飞行失稳的主要原因。为避免弹丸共振的产生,研究确定了该弹的最佳转速范围,通过最大射程及密集度试验结果表明平衡转速为8r～10r时,发动机作用对弹丸飞行影响较小,密集度最好。     

一类不确定非线性时滞系统的鲁棒容错控制

针对一类非线性时滞系统,基于Lyapunov稳定性理论,讨论了不确定参数系统的鲁棒容错控制问题。当故障在失效的传感器以及失效的执行器发生时,且非线性不确定性满足一定的增益条件,通过基于线性矩阵不等式(LMI)方法各自给出了故障在传感器和执行器失效发生时,闭环系统渐近稳定的存在条件及相应控制器的设计方法。一个设计算例的仿真结果表明了该方法是有效的。     

Efficient budget allocation strategies for elementary effects method in stochastic simulation

This paper focuses on extending the Morris' elementary effects method (MM) for sensitivity analysis/factor screening originated in the context of deterministic computer experiments to the stochastic simulation setting. Given a fixed simulation budget to expend, the main objective is to provide efficient and accurate estimates of main and interaction (or nonlinear) effects coined by the standard MM for characterizing the importance of each factor, despite the impact of simulation errors. Taking into account both the factor/input sampling uncertainty rooted in MM and the random errors inherent in a stochastic simulation, we develop efficient budget allocation strategies for implementing MM in this new context. Under each strategy proposed, we derive its corresponding optimal budget partition and optimal budget allocation rules. Numerical results corroborate the practical effectiveness of the proposed budget allocation strategies.     

遗传算法的预防性维修周期优化方法

考虑到预防维修可以提高系统生产效益的同时,故障率会随着维修次数的增加而上升,引入役龄回退因子对预防维修活动前后系统性能的动态变化进行描述;而且还充分考虑到系统预防维修周期随维修次数的变化情况,建立了系统预防维修周期优化模型,并将改进后的遗传算法运用于模型的优化求解.重点研究了系统总效益随预防维修次数的变化率, 从而有效地帮助决策者判定系统何时进行更新替换.