一种改进的空袭目标威胁等级评估模型

量化判定空袭目标威胁等级是数字化战场信息融合的重要内容,也是未来联合防空作战中指挥决策系统合理分配作战资源的基本依据。但是,空袭目标威胁等级的评判标准至今尚未统一,本文首先使用AHP法建立空袭目标威胁等级层次分析模型,针对AHP法构建成对比较矩阵过于繁琐及各指标权重难以把握的弊端,只针对层次分析模型最下层的相关指标进行分析并提出量化方法,随后根据量化数值直接构建判断矩阵,并结合DELPHI法给出诸项评估指标的权重。最后,通过实例验证了该模型的有效性和准确性。     

探空火箭级间段的CAD系统

本文在CADKEY绘图软件包的支持下,开发了加筋圆柱结构CAD系统—Hcadx.此系统通过菜单引导用户的操作,可用经验公式或解析法作轴压稳定分析,用罚函数法优化参数,可以在不退出Hcadx的情况下启动CADKEY,自动绘制设计草图。此草图经过适当地编辑、修改、便可成为工程中能接受的工作图纸。     

无奇点三维攻击时间控制滑模导引律

为研究导弹在视场角约束下的三维攻击时间控制问题,提出一种三维非线性滑模导引律。利用攻击时间误差设计滑模面,推导出三维形式的俯仰和偏航加速度指令;通过对所设计制导律进行简单修正,解决了零初始前置角引起的奇点问题;从数学上证明了该导引律的稳定性和收敛性,讨论了导引律相关参数的取值范围,分析了与纯比例导引法、解耦三维导引律之间的关系。仿真结果表明,所设计导引律能够在视场角约束条件下有效实现攻击时间增大或减小的控制;俯仰和偏航平面的耦合程度越强,该导引律控制能耗小的优势越为明显。     

Effect of organo-modified montmorillonite nanoclay on mechanical,thermal and ablation behavior of carbon fiber/phenolic resin composites

The mechanical, thermal and ablation properties of carbon phenolic (C-Ph) composites (Type-I) rein-forced with different weight percentages of organo-modified montmorillonite (o-MMT) nanoclay have been studied experimentally. Ball milling was used to disperse different weight (wt) percentages (0, 1,2,4,6 wt.％) of nanoclay into phenolic resin. Viscosity changes to resin due to nanoclay was studied. On the other hand, nanoclay added phenolic matrix composites (Type-II) were prepared to study the dispersion of nanoclay in phenolic matrix by small angle X-ray scattering and thermal stability changes to the matrix by thermogravimetric analyser (TGA). This data was used to understand the mechanical, thermal and ablation properties of Type-I composites. Inter laminar shear strength (ILSS), flexural strength and flexural modulus of Type I composites increased by about 29％, 12％and 7％respectively at 2 wt.％ addition of nanoclay beyond which these properties decreased. This was attributed to reduced fiber volume fraction (％Vf) of Type-I composites due to nanoclay addition at such high loadings. Mass ablation rate of Type-I composites was evaluated using oxy acetylene torch test at low heat flux (125 W/cm2) and high heat flux levels (500 W/cm2). Mass ablation rates have increased at both flux levels marginally up to 2 wt.％ addition of nanoclay beyond which it has increased significantly. This is in contrast to increased thermal stability observed for Type-I and Type-Ⅱ composites up to 2 wt.％addition of nanoclay. Increased ablation rates due to nanoclay addition was attributed to higher insulation effi-ciency of nanolcay, which accumulates more heat energy in limited area behind the ablation front and self-propagating ablation mechanisms triggered by thermal decomposition of organic part of nanoclay.     

基于小波神经网络的蒸汽发生器水位辨识与控制仿真

提出一种基于小波神经网络的控制方法,对蒸汽发生器水位进行控制仿真.该方法利用小波神经网络作为控制系统的辨识器和控制器来构成控制系统.小波神经网络辨识器能更准确逼近非线性对象,小波神经网络控制器能自适应产生最佳的控制规律.仿真结果表明,该方案具有响应快、超调量小、较强抑制干扰能力等良好性能.     

Nuclear weapons,existential threats,and the stability–instability paradox

Recent scholarship has largely ignored systematic differences in the existential threats that nuclear-weapon possessors pose to other states. This study theorizes that the capacity to pose existential threats shapes nuclear-armed states’ willingness to use military force against one another. We explore three hypotheses regarding how nuclear-based existential threats can deter conflict or encourage it, including under the conditions proposed by the stability–instability paradox. We rely on a statistical analysis of nuclear-armed dyads from 1950 to 2001 and employ the Nuclear Annihilation Threat (NAT) Index to capture variation in the existential threats nuclear-armed states pose to one another. We find that being able to pose an existential threat to another state emboldens potential initiators to use military force but does not deter attacks. The emboldening effects are particularly strong under the hypothesized conditions of the stability–instability paradox. Our study provides unique contributions to ongoing debates over the political effects of nuclear weapons.     

基于北斗、短波的高精度时钟系统研究与设计

介绍了北斗、短波授时技术;对高稳恒温晶振及其频率特性进行分析的基础上,设计了一种基于北斗卫星、短波无线电授时的高精度时钟系统;该系统通过利用北斗接收处理模块、短波授时接收模块得到的秒脉冲信号、时间信息,经过延迟修正处理、脉冲滤波、脉冲补偿、脉冲统计得到标准的秒脉冲信号,实现对恒温晶振频率的校准,获得一个短期及长期频率稳定度都比较优良的时间频率标准,同时利用校频后恒温晶振分频出的1pps信号对时间芯片进行校准,对外输出高精度时间信息;对恒温晶振校频系统的基本工作原理及部分模块电路图进行了说明,试验结果表明,在时间不长于1h内,频率准确度优于1×10-10;该系统实用方便的方法达到了将晶体振荡器校准到较高指标的目的。     

预防性维修工作组合优化

针对单部件的维修间隔期无法反映系统的维修最佳间隔期这一问题,对装备各部件在各修理级别上的预防性维修任务组合情况进行探索。通过建立费用模型、可用度和风险模型作为决策模型,用以组合某一修理级别各部件的维修工作,得出系统预防性维修间隔期,并结合部队实际优化从系统的角度优化等级维修中的维修工作间隔期,为确定大中小修工作提供科学、合理的理论指导。该算法在区分各修理级别的维修能力的基础上,能较好地对各修理级别的维修工作组合情况进行了优化,实例验证了模型的实用性和有效性。     

基于HLA的防区外空面导弹攻防对抗仿真

针对HLA/RTI在接口规范、对象模型模板等关键技术建立分布式仿真平台的复杂性,提出了利用数字武器开发平台进行开发的方法,构建防区外空面导弹攻防对抗系统体系结构,实现了该体系结构联邦成员划分、设计联邦/仿真对象模型表等HLA仿真关键技术,并采用面向对象建模与仿真技术建立了各联邦成员的数学模型.该仿真结果表明,各联邦成员的数学模型与底层支撑环境能够相互分离,仿真模型具有良好的交互性和互操作性,可通过添加或删除联邦成员仿真不同的复杂战场想定,并可作为验证不同算例的仿真平台.     

India's Pursuit Of Ballistic Missile Defense

This article analyzes India's efforts to deploy a Ballistic Missile Program (BMD). The article has three objectives. First, it argues that scientific-bureaucratic factors and India's incapacity to deter Pakistan's use of terrorist proxies have driven its quest for BMD. Second, the article also evaluates the current state of India's two-tiered missile defense shield. In spite of various claims on the part of India's defense science establishment, the paper estimates that India still lacks a deployable BMD system and is still far from developing an effective strategy of deterrence-through-denial. Third, the article analyzes the implications of the development of India's BMD system for nuclear stability in South Asia. The article shows how India's BMD capacities, however limited, have indirectly exacerbated the security concerns of India's regional rival, Pakistan.