装备保障人员优化配置方法研究

将装备保障人员按级别分为操作人员、维修人员及管理人员,结合人员进入、培训和退出的状态,构造了状态转移矩阵,求出了各级别人员数量。定义了不同级别针对不同任务的保障效率,按照保障人员完成最高效率任务构建了最优化配置模型。通过实例验证了模型的实用性。     

基于IMM-RUASFF的网络化目标跟踪算法

针对目前网络化目标跟踪算法存在实时性差、精度低等问题进行了研究。首先,基于网络信息共享需求,建立了网络探测节点的目标跟踪模型;其次,网络探测节点目标跟踪需求和实战要求发现目标经常是有多种运动状态并存,而单一模型的滤波器不能满足对机动目标跟踪性能的要求,采用了基于交互式多模型(Interacting Multiple Model,IMM)的有反馈实时更新的异步状态融合算法。最后,针对多个探测节点目标跟踪的状态融合估计问题,提出了一种有反馈实时更新的异步状态融合算法,通过仿真验证了算法的有效性。     

光电跟瞄平台稳定控制器设计

以考虑光电跟瞄平台三轴环架间的耦合所建立的数学模型为基础,对光电跟瞄平台的稳定回路分别设计了基于线性矩阵不等式(LMI)的状态反馈H∞控制器和多输入系统极点配置控制器;分别建立基于所设计两种控制器的跟瞄平台稳定控制系统,并对其控制效果进行对比研究,结果表明,二者皆能实现对光电跟瞄平台的稳定控制,都具有一定的鲁棒性能。其中H∞控制器的设计更简单,超调更小且达到稳定的时间短,更适合于光电跟瞄平台的稳定控制。     

大容量数据下基于DTN的链路中断优化传输技术

激光或GHz以上的高频链路的应用将导致DTN(Delay Tolerant Network)网络链路数据容量的增大,大容量数据链路的间歇性中断将严重影响数据的传输效率。针对DTN网络中大容量数据链路频繁中断和节点的剩余缓存空间剧烈变化的问题,提出在DTN路由算法上增加拥塞状态预测机制和易中断链路判定机制,根据节点的拥塞程度定义惩罚函数,缓解链路中断和节点资源受限导致的拥塞。仿真结果表明,该机制可以有效提高DTN网络的传输性能。     

基于通用扩张状态观测器的鲁棒飞行控制方法

针对参数不确定、外界干扰与测量噪声情况下飞行控制问题,提出一种基于通用扩张状态观测器的鲁棒飞行控制方法。基于状态相关的Riccati方程控制方法对飞行器俯仰通道非线性模型进行扩展线性化;引入基于通用扩张状态观测器的控制方法,设计干扰补偿增益,实现对外界干扰的估计与补偿;通过在线解算状态相关矩阵及代数黎卡提方程,得出状态反馈增益与干扰补偿增益,实现对飞行器期望攻角的跟踪控制。与已有方法对比表明,所提方法不仅对系统模型不确定性与外界干扰具有较强的鲁棒性,而且在较大测量噪声情况下,其依然能够保证良好的跟踪控制效果,具有较强的工程应用价值。     

Humanitarian response to hurricane disasters: Coordinating flood‐risk mitigation with fundraising and relief operations

To alleviate flooding, caused by hurricanes, governments build structural barriers called levees. In addition, relief providers such as the nongovernmental organizations and charities raise funds, and procure and deliver supplies (food, water, and medicines) for humanitarian relief. The strategy for managing disasters must, therefore, weigh the costs and benefits of building levees as well as procuring and delivering supplies. We use a three‐stage decision making framework to study how the investment in levee capacity can be integrated with supply procurements, fundraising, and rapid response. One of our major findings is that a large fundraising cost discourages postdisaster funding, implying relatively large investments in levee and prepositioned supplies. That notwithstanding, a large social value (of saving life) can tilt the balance in favor of postdisaster funding. If the levee capacity increases, funding for predisaster procurement is reduced without affecting postdisaster funding. For a sufficiently large increase in capacity, however, postdisaster response becomes superfluous. We also find that hurricane uncertainty motivates levees with large capacity. In contrast, levee‐failures motivate levees with small capacity.     

Integrated guidance and control of guided projectile with multiple constraints based on fuzzy adaptive and dynamic surface

Based on fuzzy adaptive and dynamic surface (FADS), an integrated guidance and control (IGC) approach was proposed for large caliber naval gun guided projectile, which was robust to target maneuver, canard dynamic characteristics, and multiple constraints, such as impact angle, limited measurement of line of sight (LOS) angle rate and nonlinear saturation of canard deflection. Initially, a strict feedback cascade model of IGC in longitudinal plane was established, and extended state observer (ESO) was designed to estimate LOS angle rate and uncertain disturbances with unknown boundary inside and outside of system, including aerodynamic parameters perturbation, target maneuver and model errors. Secondly, aiming at zeroing LOS angle tracking error and LOS angle rate in finite time, a nonsingular terminal sliding mode (NTSM) was designed with adaptive exponential reaching law. Furthermore, combining with dynamic surface, which prevented the complex differential of virtual control laws, the fuzzy adaptive systems were designed to approximate observation errors of uncertain disturbances and to reduce chatter of control law. Finally, the adaptive Nussbaum gain function was introduced to compensate nonlinear saturation of canard deflection. The LOS angle tracking error and LOS angle rate were convergent in finite time and whole system states were uniform ultimately bounded, rigorously proven by Lyapunov stability theory. Hardware-in-the-loop simulation (HILS) and digital simulation experiments both showed FADS provided guided projectile with good guidance performance while striking targets with different maneuvering forms.     

基于粗糙集理论的一种综合定权法

基于粗糙集理论中信息量的概念提出了一种新的主观定权法,再以优化理论为依据建立了综合定权的优化模型,并给出了模型的精确解,据此推导出了一种兼顾主观偏好和客观信息的综合权重赋值法,最后给出了一个应用实例说明了这种定权方法的有效性.     

大型装备费用预测中的系统分析

将大型装备连续建造的总成本及控制变量作为一个变化系统,并用灰色系统理论进行建模分析,采用龙格-库塔法求解微分方程组.通过对精度的分析,指出使用灰色系统预测结果不能采用统计分析方法的相关性检验标准,而要通过预测数列与原始数列的逼近情况来判断其预测精度.     

Drone usage by militant groups: exploring variation in adoption

Judging by recent media reporting and pronouncements by senior US military and security officials, the use of drones by militant groups is both reshaping conflict between armed non-state actors and state parties and now presents a grave and direct threat to nations in the West and elsewhere. But does this threat warrant the attention it is currently receiving? To answer this question, this article surveys how various militant groups have used drones both tactically on the battlefield and for wider strategic purposes. Closely examining how drones have been employed and by whom provides a basis for understanding variation in adoption. The article shows how drone usage or non-usage is highly contingent on the setting of the conflict, the aims of different groups, and the capacity of groups to adopt the technology. Though advances in drone technology could make the use-case more appealing for militant groups, drones will be subject to the same back-and-forth, techno-tactical adaptation dynamic between adversaries that have accompanied prior military innovations.