Cost allocation of capacity investment games

Consider a manufacturer serving a set of retail stores each of which faces deterministic demands in a finite planning horizon. At the beginning of the planning horizon, the production capacity of the manufacturer is built, followed by production, outsourcing to third party manufacturers if necessary and distribution to the retail stores. Because the retail stores are usually managed by different managers who act as independent profit centers, it is desirable that the total cost is divided among the retail stores so that their incentives can be appropriately captured and thus efficient operations can be achieved. Under various conditions, we prove that there is a fair allocation of costs among the retail stores in the sense that no subset of retail stores subsidizes others, or equivalently, the resulting capacity investment game has a nonempty core, that is, the capacity investment game is a balanced game. In addition, our proof provides a mechanism to compute a fair cost allocation. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 512–523, 2013     

Verification and validation of detonation modeling

The mathematical model used to describe the detonation multi-physics phenomenon is usually given by highly coupled nonlinear partial differential equations. Numerical simulation and the computer aided engineering (CAE) technique has become the third pillar of detonation research, along with theory and experiment, due to the detonation phenomenon is difficult to explain by the theoretical analysis, and the cost required to accredit the reliability of detonation products is very high, even some physical experiments of detonation are impossible. The numerical simulation technique can solve these complex problems in the real situation repeatedly and reduce the design cost and time stunningly. But the reliability of numerical simulation software and the serviceability of the computational result seriously hinders the extension, application and the self-restoration of the simulation software, restricts its independently innovational ability. This article deals with the physical modeling, numerical simulation, and software development of detonation in a unified way. Verification and validation and uncertainty quantification (V&V&UQ) is an important approach in ensuring the credibility of the modeling and simulation of detonation. V&V of detonation is based on our independently developed detonation multi-physics software-LAD2D. We propose the verification method based on mathematical theory and program function as well as availability of its program execution. Validation is executed by comparing with the experiment data. At last, we propose the future prospect of numerical simulation software and the CAE technique, and we also pay attention to the research direction of V&V&UQ.     

More military base closure? Considering the alternatives*

Despite multiple base closing rounds, the United States Department of Defense still has excess base capacity, and thus President Trump and high-level Defense Department officials are calling for more base closure through the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) process. However, another BRAC may not be the optimal solution, because simple base closure is not an efficient way to reduce surplus base capacity. Thus, Defense Department officials should consider other methods to reduce surplus capacity, including reduction in base size, leasing excess base property, or transferring it to another government agency for a variety of alternative uses. The surplus capacity issue also offers an opportunity to DOD to reassess base utilization, to update base requirements with current and future force structure. While BRAC focuses on American military bases, the process and alternatives also have international applications.     

考虑落角约束与驾驶仪特性的自适应RBF空间末制导律

为使大口径舰炮制导炮弹在打击近岸机动目标的末制导段满足落角约束,现考虑自动驾驶仪动态特性,基于自适应RBF逼近网络与动态面滑模提出一种空间末制导律。构建空间弹目相对运动模型,通过带改进微分跟踪器的扩张状态观测器估计目标加速度。为零化视线角跟踪误差与视线角速率,采用自适应指数趋近律设计非奇异终端滑模动态面,并运用自适应RBF逼近网络削弱控制指令抖振。通过Lyapunov第二法证明了全系统中视线角跟踪误差与视线角速率均最终一致有界。仿真实验表明：该末制导律使制导炮弹在空间中打击具有不同机动形式的近岸目标时,均具备良好的末制导性能。     

角速率火控原理研究

论述并研究了角速率火控原理,利用“滤波──识别”方法,提出了一套新的角速率火控滤波和外推模型。仿真结果表明,这种模型对于机动运动的反舰导弹可以明显提高火控预报精度。     

对加强农村消防工作的思考

针对我国农村消防工作现状 ,就如何加强农村消防工作谈几点看法 ,旨在全面提高农村整体防灾能力。     

综合火力／飞行控制系统空对空射击模态的半物理仿真研究

采用半实物仿真方法研究了综合火力／飞行控制系统的动态特性、作战有效性和工程实现的可行性。文中给出了系统的数学模型、系统的硬件结构和仿真试验结果。结果表明,综合火力／飞行控制系统可以减少瞄准过程时间,增加可射击时间,提高瞄准精度和系统稳定性,扩大攻击范围（全向攻击）,减轻飞行员工作负担,提高载机生存力。因而是很有发展前途的一种航空火力控制新概念。实验也表明工程实现是可能的。     

基于状态约减的信息攻防图生成算法

针对攻防图构建中存在的状态爆炸问题,提出一种基于状态约减的攻防图生成算法。该算法在分析攻击者和目标网络特点的基础上,对独立状态节点的权限进行对比;其在保留最高权限节点的前提下,实现对低权限节点的约减,并去除冗余攻击路径。仿真实验表明算法具有计算复杂度低、能有效降低状态爆炸以及控制攻防图规模等优点。     

Evergreening and operational risk under price competition

“Evergreening” is a strategy wherein an innovative pharmaceutical firm introduces an upgrade of its current product when the patent on this product expires. The upgrade is introduced with a new patent and is designed to counter competition from generic manufacturers that seek to imitate the firm's existing product. However, this process is fraught with uncertainty because the upgrade is subject to stringent guidelines and faces approval risk. Thus, an incumbent firm has to make an upfront production capacity investment without clarity on whether the upgrade will reach the market. This uncertainty may also affect the capacity investment of a competing manufacturer who introduces a generic version of the incumbent's existing product but whose market demand depends on the success or failure of the upgrade. We analyze a game where capacity investment occurs before uncertainty resolution and firms compete on prices thereafter. Capacity considerations that arise due to demand uncertainty introduce new factors into the evergreening decision. Equilibrium analysis reveals that the upgrade's estimated approval probability needs to exceed a threshold for the incumbent to invest in evergreening. This threshold for evergreening increases as the intensity of competition in the generic market increases. If evergreening is optimal, the incumbent's capacity investment is either decreasing or nonmonotonic with respect to low end market competition depending on whether the level of product improvement in the upgrade is low or high. If the entrant faces a capacity constraint, then the probability threshold for evergreening is higher than the case where the entrant is not capacity constrained. Finally, by incorporating the risk‐return trade‐off that the incumbent faces in terms of the level of product improvement versus the upgrade success probability, we can characterize policy for a regulator. We show that the introduction of capacity considerations may maximize market coverage and/or social surplus at incremental levels of product improvement in the upgrade. This is contrary to the prevalent view of regulators who seek to curtail evergreening involving incremental product improvement. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 71–89, 2016     

Approximations for heavily loaded G/GI/n + GI queues

Motivated by applications to service systems, we develop simple engineering approximation formulas for the steady‐state performance of heavily loaded G/GI/n+GI multiserver queues, which can have non‐Poisson and nonrenewal arrivals and non‐exponential service‐time and patience‐time distributions. The formulas are based on recently established Gaussian many‐server heavy‐traffic limits in the efficiency‐driven (ED) regime, where the traffic intensity is fixed at ρ > 1, but the approximations also apply to systems in the quality‐and‐ED regime, where ρ > 1 but ρ is close to 1. Good performance across a wide range of parameters is obtained by making heuristic refinements, the main one being truncation of the queue length and waiting time approximations to nonnegative values. Simulation experiments show that the proposed approximations are effective for large‐scale queuing systems for a significant range of the traffic intensity ρ and the abandonment rate θ, roughly for ρ > 1.02 and θ > 2.0. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 187–217, 2016