基于引导员负荷的指挥引导容量评估

针对目前传统指挥引导容量评估不准确的问题,通过对空战指挥引导容量与引导员负荷的综合分析,提出了基于引导员负荷的指挥引导容量评估方法。基于引导员负荷重新定义了指挥引导容量,给出了引导员负荷的确定方法,并建立了指挥引导容量评估模型。最后对某指挥机构进行实例评估,评估结果表明所提出的指挥引导容量评估方法将评估误差控制在1批之内。     

基于Delphi-BP神经网络的装备保障能力评估

针对评估指标数量过多可能给评估过程及结果带来的弊端,在构建装备保障能力评估指标体系基础上,给出了基于Delphi法的指标体系筛选的方法步骤,通过计算累计贡献率,对指标体系进行了筛选,降低了评估模型的输入维度。建立了评估部队装备保障能力的三层BP神经网络模型,利用Matlab神经网络工具箱对网络进行了训练和仿真,结果显示误差小于10-3。最后,通过对比评估,验证了方法的有效性和正确性。     

集对分析的弹炮结合防空武器系统可靠性分析

针对传统可靠性分析仅考虑系统正常运行及发生故障两种状态,而没有考虑其在亚健康状态下运行的同题,提出了基于集对分析的弹炮结合防空武器系统在亚健康模式下的可靠性分析方法.首先,在详细分析弹炮结合防空武器系统物理结构模型的基础上,基于集对分析方法,建立了弹炮结合防空武器系统可靠性模型;然后,根据工程应用中的经验数据,对弹炮结合防空武器系统的可靠性进行了实例仿真,结果验证了该模型的合理性和有效性.     

基于三粒子纠缠态的量子安全直接通信协议

提出了一种新的三粒子量子安全直接通信协议。通信过程利用decoy光子来检测窃听,保证信道安全。发送方将秘密消息编码在不同幺正操作上,通信双方通过Bell基和Z基测量可直接传递秘密消息。由于所有粒子都用于传输秘密消息,且传输一次可获得两比特信息,该协议具有较高的量子比特及量子密码协议效率;三粒子纠缠态的制备是已实现技术,该协议具有实际操作的意义。此外,该协议在量子信道中也是安全的。     

一种基于零控脱靶量的滑模末制导律设计

基于零控脱靶量的思想,提出一种能够有效针对大气层再入目标的滑模末制导律.首先,建立纵向平面内的弹目相对运动方程;然后利用扩张状态观测器对目标机动加速度信息进行估计,并对零控脱靶量算法进行分析,提出了制导律的设计思路;接着利用滑模变结构控制理论进行制导律的推导;最后进行仿真分析,仿真结果证明,所设计的制导律能够很好地对目标弹进行拦截,并且指令的跟踪效果也很好,从而验证了算法的有效性.     

Maintaining peace in a neighbourhood torn by separatism: the case of Satun province in southern Thailand

While separatist-related conflict has re-emerged in southern Thailand, there is one predominantly Muslim border province that has remained outside of the conflict. Satun province has been conspicuously unaffected by the Malay-Muslim separatist movement, despite its shared history and ethnic origins with the conflict-affected provinces. In contrast to Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat, the process of state penetration in Satun was gradual and comparatively less coercive, leading to relative stability and encouraging political and economic integration. This comparative study analyzes the history of cooperative state–minority relations and political stability in Satun province, and draws important lessons directly applicable to the unrest in neighbouring provinces.     

Excess capacity in weapons production: An empirical analysis∗ †

This paper analyzes a set of observations by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on individual weapons systems regarding whether large amounts of excess capacity exist and whether short run average cost (SRAC) appears to be severely decreasing. It is shown that the amount of excess capacity and steepness of SRAC are essentially independent of output rate. It is then argued that this suggests that production is occurring in inefficiently large plants—i.e.—off the long run cost curve.     

NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

As the potential for the involvement of corporations in the manufacture of nuclear weapons has increased, particularly through dual-use technology, global regulation has failed to keep pace. Where regulation of private corporations does exist, in the form of treaties, UN resolutions, or more informal arrangements, the obligations fall only on states. This state of affairs is a result of international law's traditional deference to state sovereignty; yet, it has led to significant shortcomings in the global regulatory regime, where states are unwilling or unable to meet their obligations. While radical departures from the traditional model of international law might remove the regulatory gaps caused by noncompliant states, such changes are unrealistic in the current political climate. More realistic changes must be focused on, offering greater recognition of the role of private corporations in nuclear proliferation and increasing state compliance with existing regulation.     

神经网络能力研究

文献[1]～[3]中研究了神经网络的能力—存储能力。但我们认为神经网络的能力应包括存储能力和计算能力两个方面。本文对神经网络的存储能力和计算能力进行定量分析,并得出了许多有益的结论。