THE AU MISSION IN BURUNDI

Abstract

Even though the Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, MPLA) managed to take firm control of the state as the war ended in 2002, this article contends that its hegemony is not absolute. At the fringes of the state administration, emerging regional elites have established associations that seek to provide a remedy against the centralised system, which essentially deprives regions of political influence and sufficient economic resources. As in many other countries on the African continent, political identities that were legally enforced and institutionally reproduced in colonial times have hardly been transcended in the post-colonial period. Even if the associations' influence today does not yet reach further than bringing some insecurity to an otherwise secure polity dominated by the MPLA, the associations could play a role in reinforcing strong regional solidarity and give political expression to feelings of exclusion. Such sentiments could in turn lead to an increase of exclusivity ideas about citizenship, or even xenophobic violence. Much will depend on the strategies of the MPLA, and to what extent it will accommodate these emergent forces in the post-war era, not the least through the current sub-national state reforms.     

POLITICAL SURVIVAL AND NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, by Etel Solingen. Princeton University Press, 2007. 404 pages, $26.95.     

假设检验在军事工程应用中的若干问题

对假设检验这一统计学工具在军事工程应用中值得注意的若干问题进行了探讨,包括假设的设置、检验门限的设置和统计量的构造等,这些问题在理论上有一些一般的指导,但在实际工程应用中,需要根据具体问题进行设计,这中间涉及一些技巧和经验,也容易出现一些常被忽视的问题。指出了这些问题,并给出了在实际工程中应用好假设检验的一些建议。     

磷虾群免疫粒子滤波的机载单站无源定位算法

为了进一步提高机载单站无源定位的精度,将磷虾群优化思想引入到粒子滤波的重采样阶段,提出了一种磷虾群免疫粒子滤波算法。该算法利用磷虾的受诱导运动、觅食以及随机扩散行为,将粒子导向高似然区域,有效缓解了粒子退化问题。同时,其采用了人工免疫算法的变异操作,避免了早熟现象的出现,提高了粒子的多样性,克服了粒子贫化问题。仿真结果表明,新算法改善了机载单站无源定位的定位精度以及收敛速度。     

比例最小偏度单形UKF的RBF神经网络算法

为提高RBF神经网络的建模性能,提出一种基于改进无迹Kalman滤波(UKF)的RBF神经网络训练算法。在该算法中,首先将比例最小偏度单形Sigma点采样策略引入UT,以有效改进UKF,提升其计算效率,然后利用改进的UKF优化估计RBF神经网络的最优参数。仿真结果表明,改进的UKF比EKF具有更高的RBF神经网络模型训练精度,与传统UKF的模型精度大体相当,但速度更快,计算效率更高。     

Development programs for one‐shot systems using multiple‐state design reliability models

Design reliability at the beginning of a product development program is typically low, and development costs can account for a large proportion of total product cost. We consider how to conduct development programs (series of tests and redesigns) for one‐shot systems (which are destroyed at first use or during testing). In rough terms, our aim is to both achieve high final design reliability and spend as little of a fixed budget as possible on development. We employ multiple‐state reliability models. Dynamic programming is used to identify a best test‐and‐redesign strategy and is shown to be presently computationally feasible for at least 5‐state models. Our analysis is flexible enough to allow for the accelerated stress testing needed in the case of ultra‐high reliability requirements, where testing otherwise provides little information on design reliability change. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

基于GO法的多阶段共因失效任务系统可靠性评估

为了解决部件阶段依赖性与共因失效给系统可靠性分析带来的复杂性,针对多阶段共因失效任务系统,结合GO法易于处理有时序、含共因失效系统可靠性分析的特点,首先,将前一阶段的输出信号作为后一阶段的输入信号,建模时首尾连接各阶段模型,建立整个任务系统的隐性GO模型;其次,在进行各信号流状态组合运算时,融入阶段代数处理部件的阶段依赖性;再次,用隐性共因失效分析,将共因失效对系统的影响在状态组合的定量分析中表达出来,得到所需系统可靠性指标;最后,与基于二元决策图的算法进行对比验证。结果表明:GO法可以简捷、准确地处理多阶段共因失效任务系统可靠性评估问题。     

基于矩阵变换的坦克驾驶训练数字化记录与评判系统研究

为了解决坦克驾驶训练中因操作状态难以保留、操作细节难以再现而无法实现对训练成果深入分析与客观评价的不足,以坦克驾驶训练数字化记录与评判系统总体设计为切入点,基于基础驾驶动作的分解与组合以及车辆状态信息获取设计了驾驶动作记录仪,实现了坦克驾驶训练过程中动作状态信息的采集与数字化存储,并应用矩阵变换理论,提出了一种基于关键性动作参数查找与判断的方法,对基础驾驶动作进行了过程识别与效果评判。分析表明:该系统的技术能对坦克驾驶动作状态进行数字化记录,而基于状态矩阵变换的方法能实现基本驾驶过程的识别与评判。     

基于空频域信息的单站无源定位可观测分析

对利用空频域信息的单站无源定位方法进行可观测性分析。针对非线性系统的可观测性理论需要计算复杂的雅克比矩阵的问题,提出把观测方程先经过伪线性化处理,然后运用线性系统的可观测性分析的理论,对匀速、匀加速直线运动进行了具体分析,得出只要目标不朝观测站作径向运动都是可以对其进行观测的。实验结果也验证了分析结论的正确性。     

状态数计算的卫星控制系统健康状态评估

健康评估是卫星在轨安全健康工作的关键技术之一.针对卫星控制系统的健康状态评估问题,首先分析了卫星控制系统的内部结构特征,将控制系统按其结构分层并提出了基于层次推理地健康状态评估方法,然后通过分析系统特有的工作关系确定了各级系统状态数的计算方法,最后以某型气象卫星的一种控制模式为例计算了从部件到整系统的各级别状态数.计算以及仿真的结果显示该方法能够利用状态数合理地表示控制系统的健康状态.