A new importance sampling Monte Carlo method for a flow network reliability problem

The exact evaluation of the probability that the maximum st‐flow is greater than or equal to a fixed demand in a stochastic flow network is an NP‐hard problem. This limitation leads one to consider Monte Carlo alternatives. In this paper, we propose a new importance sampling Monte Carlo method. It is based on a recursive use of the state space decomposition methodology of Doulliez and Jamoulle during the simulation process. We show theoretically that the resulting estimator belongs to the variance‐reduction family and we give an upper bound on its variance. As shown by experimental tests, the new sampling principle offers, in many cases, substantial speedups with respect to a previous importance sampling based on the same decomposition procedure and its best performances are obtained when highly reliable networks are analyzed. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 204–228, 2002; DOI 10.1002/nav.10004     

简论故意泄漏国家秘密罪

为完善国家秘密保护法律制度,现行《刑法》规定了故意泄漏国家秘密罪。在司法实践中,需严格把握本罪的构成要件,并以此为基础,准确区分此罪与彼罪,正确施以刑罚。     

活性屏离子渗硫层在40#油润滑条件下的摩擦学性能

应用活性屏离子渗硫技术,在CrMoCu合金铸铁表面制备出以FeS相为主的渗硫层。实验表明,在40#油润滑条件下,活性屏离子渗硫表面的摩擦因数比未渗表面大约降低了13%,与渗硫表面相近;体积磨损量比未渗表面减少了30%左右,与渗硫表面相似。由于活性屏离子渗硫层的主要成分为密排六方晶体结构的FeS,且其结构疏松多孔易于储存润滑油,因此具有良好的减摩、耐磨性能。     

大型装备费用预测中的系统分析

将大型装备连续建造的总成本及控制变量作为一个变化系统,并用灰色系统理论进行建模分析,采用龙格-库塔法求解微分方程组.通过对精度的分析,指出使用灰色系统预测结果不能采用统计分析方法的相关性检验标准,而要通过预测数列与原始数列的逼近情况来判断其预测精度.     

形状记忆合金自复位减振装置研制与验证

为改善第二喉道中的可调中心体机构(简称中心体)在工作状态下的流致振动,根据形状记忆合金(shape memory alloy, SMA)偏置双程驱动原理,设计制作一种能够满足中心体有限安装空间要求的SMA自复位减振装置;采用UMAT接口编制的SMA本构关系子程序实现减振装置最大压紧力的数值分析,数值分析与静态调试试验结果误差约为2.58%;搭建地面减振试验平台,测试SMA自复位减振装置分离和闭合状态下的中心体零部件振动响应。减振试验结果显示:SMA自复位减振装置闭合后,中心体振动响应明显降低,在0～100 Hz频带内,均有明显的减振效果,低频至55 Hz范围内,减振率均大于50%。     

用有限元强度折减法进行加筋土挡土墙稳定性分析

加筋土挡土墙边坡是一种新型的边坡加固形式,传统的理论分析主要是考虑力的平衡关系,因此还有不少的缺陷,而有限元分析不仅满足力与位移的平衡关系,而且考虑了筋带与土体的协调变形作用,模拟的结果能使人们方便地掌握挡墙的整体与局部变化。结合某加筋土挡土墙的实例,利用有限元对其进行了数值模拟,用强度折减法计算了边坡的安全系数,并与极限平衡进行比较,对类似的工程有一定的指导作用。     

带有消声瓦的潜艇耐压壳的稳态振动和横向应力

采用混合分层理论和Ressiner混合变分原理,在壳的厚度方向取二次插值函数来描述位移沿厚度方向的变化规律;采用三次和四次插值函数来描述横向应力沿厚度方向的变化,线形处理筋条的变形,推导出粘弹加筋层合圆柱壳的动力学方程和协调方程组,并采用拉普拉斯变换,得出简支粘弹加筋层合圆柱壳稳态振动的响应解。对于自由阻尼层合圆柱壳,所给出的振动频率和结构损耗因子与解析解吻合良好.结果表明,较高的层间横向正应力是引起潜艇消声瓦脱落的主要因素,而采用较高模量的粘弹性阻尼材料将降低层间横向应力的幅值.     

综合火力／飞行控制系统空对空射击模态的半物理仿真研究

采用半实物仿真方法研究了综合火力／飞行控制系统的动态特性、作战有效性和工程实现的可行性。文中给出了系统的数学模型、系统的硬件结构和仿真试验结果。结果表明,综合火力／飞行控制系统可以减少瞄准过程时间,增加可射击时间,提高瞄准精度和系统稳定性,扩大攻击范围（全向攻击）,减轻飞行员工作负担,提高载机生存力。因而是很有发展前途的一种航空火力控制新概念。实验也表明工程实现是可能的。     

12150L发动机工作状况监测系统

介绍了12150L发动机工作状况监测系统的组成,各参数的检测原理、应用,控制系统和数据处理的工作原理.     

The socialization of military power: security cooperation and doctrine development through multinational military exercises

Multinational Military Exercises (MMEs) are often viewed by states as opportunities to increase interoperability, improve cooperation, and solve common security problems. We argue that in addition to this, MMEs work as tools to shape the shared beliefs of coalition partners surrounding threat. Specifically, MMEs allow multinational forces to identify best practices, consolidate beliefs, and codify behavior through doctrine, typically by means of some institutional process. We examine our argument on MMEs through an analysis of various multinational and coalition partner efforts to identify security threats and cooperate through the development of common doctrine at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels of warfare. Our analysis suggests that the use of MMEs for doctrine development does help to socialize states in terms of identifying common threats and subsequently sharing a process by which to address them.