基于状态约减的信息攻防图生成算法

针对攻防图构建中存在的状态爆炸问题,提出一种基于状态约减的攻防图生成算法。该算法在分析攻击者和目标网络特点的基础上,对独立状态节点的权限进行对比;其在保留最高权限节点的前提下,实现对低权限节点的约减,并去除冗余攻击路径。仿真实验表明算法具有计算复杂度低、能有效降低状态爆炸以及控制攻防图规模等优点。     

高海情对反导舰炮命中概率的影响

根据某型反导舰炮配装的舰船摇摆特性及海浪运动数学模型,首先模拟得到高海情舰船摇摆趋势图;然后分析了高海情对反导舰炮射击诸元的影响;其次,采用变换抽样法在高海情射击诸元变化范围内随机产生方位角和高低角增量,通过解6自由度弹道方程计算方位角和高低角增量概率误差,再根据概率误差解算高海情条件下系统的命中概率;最后,对大量的仿真计算结果进行统计分析,得出了具有实用价值的结论,为靶场试验及系统精度设计提供参考。     

Approximations for heavily loaded G/GI/n + GI queues

Motivated by applications to service systems, we develop simple engineering approximation formulas for the steady‐state performance of heavily loaded G/GI/n+GI multiserver queues, which can have non‐Poisson and nonrenewal arrivals and non‐exponential service‐time and patience‐time distributions. The formulas are based on recently established Gaussian many‐server heavy‐traffic limits in the efficiency‐driven (ED) regime, where the traffic intensity is fixed at ρ > 1, but the approximations also apply to systems in the quality‐and‐ED regime, where ρ > 1 but ρ is close to 1. Good performance across a wide range of parameters is obtained by making heuristic refinements, the main one being truncation of the queue length and waiting time approximations to nonnegative values. Simulation experiments show that the proposed approximations are effective for large‐scale queuing systems for a significant range of the traffic intensity ρ and the abandonment rate θ, roughly for ρ > 1.02 and θ > 2.0. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 187–217, 2016     

基于参数辨识的电动舵机系统健康仿真和评估

针对目前电动舵机系统故障诊断方法不能有效预测缓变故障,提出基于舵机系统模型的状态变量检测法对飞行器常用的执行机构电动舵机系统进行健康分析与仿真评估。分析电动舵机系统子系统电机本体、控制器、传动机构的常见故障,对其中反映系统性能的关键参数进行数学建模;通过对系统注入不同的健康参数得到相关故障状态下的状态变量特征,进而作为定位故障源的知识库,引入健康因子评估故障参数的变化趋势;仿真算例选择电机本体的主要物理参数电机绕组阻值和反映永磁体性能的电机力矩常数作为健康因子,通过定位知识库建立的健康因子评估算法验证了方法的可行性。     

相控阵雷达LPI搜索方法研究

相控阵雷达可通过合理配置工作参数优化其性能。针对相控阵雷达在搜索目标时易受敌方电子侦察设备威胁的现实,研究了在保持搜索能力的同时,通过合理配置参数降低截获概率的问题。分析了影响相控阵雷达搜索状态LPI(Low Probability of Intercept)性能的主要因素,建立了截获概率模型与搜索能力模型,给出了3种参数调整策略。仿真试验验证了模型的有效性,并比较了3种策略的优劣。     

How does state security limit the right to protest? State response to popular participation in South Africa

In South Africa, the right to protest has come under threat from the state. Increasing cases of forceful policing and, at times, unlawful procedural prohibitions of protest attest to this. Interviews with members of different community-based organisations across South Africa show that protest is sometimes delegitimised under the guise of security as protestors are constructed as threats to the state. The larger implication of this treatment is that these protestors are treated as non-citizens who are excluded from participating in governance. This study aims to describe this situation through securitisation theory, arguing that South Africa has become a securitised state. It therefore looks at the implications of this securitised response for popular participation in South Africa.     

Response surface analysis of two‐stage stochastic linear programming with recourse

We apply the techniques of response surface methodology (RSM) to approximate the objective function of a two‐stage stochastic linear program with recourse. In particular, the objective function is estimated, in the region of optimality, by a quadratic function of the first‐stage decision variables. The resulting response surface can provide valuable modeling insight, such as directions of minimum and maximum sensitivity to changes in the first‐stage variables. Latin hypercube (LH) sampling is applied to reduce the variance of the recourse function point estimates that are used to construct the response surface. Empirical results show the value of the LH method by comparing it with strategies based on independent random numbers, common random numbers, and the Schruben‐Margolin assignment rule. In addition, variance reduction with LH sampling can be guaranteed for an important class of two‐stage problems which includes the classical capacity expansion model. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 753–776, 1999     

永磁直线同步电机伺服系统自抗扰反步控制器

为了提高永磁直线同步电机伺服系统的鲁棒性,提出基于自抗扰思想的反步控制器。将永磁直线同步电机伺服系统中的未建模动态和外界扰动定义为总和扰动,并扩充为系统新的状态变量。设计了线性扩张状态观测器估计不可直接测量的直线电机动子速度以及总和扰动,证明并分析了设计的线性扩张状态观测器的收敛性和估计误差。利用线性扩张状态观测器的输出,基于动态补偿线性化思想设计了反步控制器。证明了考虑线性扩张状态观测器估计误差的闭环反馈控制系统的稳定性。在Googol公司的实验平台上,验证了设计的自抗扰反步控制器的可行性。     

失效概率函数求解的高效算法

结合基于分数矩约束的极大熵方法和替代模型法,发展了一种失效概率函数求解的高效算法。所提算法的基本思路是利用自主学习的迭代Kriging方法来构造失效概率函数,即采用较少的训练样本来构造粗糙的失效概率函数,在此基础上通过添加新的违反学习函数约束的样本来更新失效概率函数,直到达到精度要求。对于每一个分布参数的训练样本点,所提方法采用分数矩约束的极大熵法来求解相应的失效概率样本。由于分数矩的计算采用了高效的降维积分,并且由于分数矩约束下极大熵法中优化策略高效地逼近了响应的概率密度函数,从而使得失效概率样本能够被高效高精度地估计出来。为了检验所提方法的精度及效率,给出了两个算例,对比了所提方法与已有的失效概率函数求解的Bayes公式法及Monte Carlo法等,结果表明,所提方法适用于求解复杂的功能函数问题,且在满足精度要求的基础上大大降低了计算量。     

基于非线性扩张状态观测器的直线电机PD控制

为了解决直线电机伺服系统跟踪速度与峰化现象之间的矛盾,设计一种基于非线性扩张状态观测器的比例微分(Proportion Differentiation,PD)控制器。将直线电机伺服系统中的未建模动态和外界干扰定义为总和扰动并扩充为系统新的状态变量,利用非线性扩张状态观测器(Non Linear Extended State Observer,NLESO)估计不可测量的直线电机动子速度以及总和扰动。利用NLESO和跟踪微分器TD的输出,基于动态补偿线性化思想设计了引入补偿量的PD控制器,并给出了闭环控制系统稳定性证明。在Googol公司的实验平台上,通过与两种基于LESO的PD控制器对比,验证了所设计的基于NLESO的PD控制器的可行性。实验结果表明,基于NLESO的PD控制器可使直线电机伺服系统具有跟踪速度快、跟踪精度高、峰化现象小、鲁棒性强的优点。