支持广义多方案分析仿真的异地克隆研究

仿真克隆可以提高并行离散事件仿真的效率和并行性,方便快捷地对仿真中的多种可能性进行分析、比较和评估.给出广义多方案分析仿真概念,介绍仿真克隆的相关概念,分析当前仿真克隆方法的不足,提出提高广义多方案分析仿真整体运行效率的异地克隆概念.基于检查点与恢复方法,在动态并行仿真引擎中实现了异地克隆.利用Phold测试程序对异地克隆方法的效率进行测试,测试结果表明,异地克隆可以提高多方案分析仿真系统整体运行效率.     

电视制导系统抗干扰性能评估

提出了一种空地电视制导导弹图像传输系统抗干扰评估的总体框架,建立了电磁干扰条件下系统的抗干扰评估的空间模型。而后基于有限状态机理论,建立了电视制导导弹图像识别模态转换模型,详细讨论了典型干扰对电视图像数据链的影响。最后,应用计算机仿真技术,得到制导系统在不同信噪比条件下导弹的最大作用距离和图像干扰效果。     

无人机配载弹射式导弹静稳定性分析

通过刚体飞行六自由度动力学方程建立弹射式导弹初始段无控飞行模型,并结合弹射装置动力模型和导弹发动机推力模型进行仿真计算。基于无控飞行模型和仿真结果分析了无人机配载弹射式导弹发射特性,在导弹初始飞行段对机弹分离安全性和导弹姿态控制要求进行了研究。对导弹不同静稳定度下的运动特性对比分析,分别给出了满足各种安全和控制要求的导弹静稳定度范围。进一步综合所有安全和姿态控制要求,得到了满足所有要求的最佳静稳定度。经过一个实例的仿真研究,结果表明建立的模型与所用到的方法是合理有效的。     

动基座条件下垂直发射装置状态参数检测方法

针对在海上动基座条件下舰载垂直发射装置的安装精度和发射架导轨状态参数的检测问题,在分析其技术难点的基础上,提出了利用测距仪差分原理实现对水平误差的检测;采用数字激光自准直仪解决发射筒各架体的垂直度测量。并通过对该检测方法进行的不确定度分析与计算,验证了该检测理论的正确性。     

Maritime interdiction in Sri Lanka's counterinsurgency

A comprehensive maritime interdiction strategy to attack the insurgent's logistic system was a key element in the defeat of the Tamil Tigers. The campaign of maritime interdiction required the Sri Lankan Navy (SLN) to attack LTTE arms smuggling, sea piracy, and maritime terrorism. The SLN degraded the insurgency's robust maritime logistical network while also devising tactics to engage the maritime insurgents who reacted with swarm and suicide boat tactics. The efforts of the SLN forced the Tamil Tigers to confront the government's final land offensives with diminished resources, thus collapsing a three decades’ old insurgency in a matter of months.     

基于磁强计和光纤陀螺的小卫星姿态确定非线性滤波算法

提出了一种小卫星姿态确定的非线性滤波算法,该算法利用三轴磁强计和光纤陀螺作为姿态敏感器。在非线性滤波器的设计中,从两个方面对平方根sigma点卡尔曼滤波方法进行改进。第一,把姿态四元数的矢量部分、光纤陀螺的漂移和噪声组合,得到滤波器的增广状态向量;第二,分别建立向量旋转模型、最优化模型和误差四元数乘法模型来确保非线性滤波过程中四元数的归一化约束。仿真分析结果表明,本文提出的非线性滤波算法能够有效地提高小卫星的定姿性能,与扩展卡尔曼滤波相比,具有较高的精度、稳定性和较快的收敛速度;与无迹卡尔曼滤波相比,收敛性相当,但是精度略优,稳定性和计算效率较高。     

At war with social theory: Instrumental and communicative action in US military doctrine during the War on Terror

As US counterinsurgency campaigns draw to a close, doctrine for asymmetric warfare written during the War on Terror has come under heavy criticism. While many have argued that this shift to ‘winning hearts and minds’ is evidence that the United States is taking humanitarianism and nation-building seriously, others argue that a wide gap exists between US counterinsurgency doctrine and the protection of civilians afflicted by conflict. In this article, I show that the latter is true by comparing theories of instrumental and communicative action to US doctrine for operational design, stability operations, and counterinsurgency. I argue that these texts treat the people as an object to be manipulated for the achievement of pre-determined self-interested strategic goals rather than members of a community that jointly designs operations to fulfill shared objectives. However, US doctrine does contain communicative elements that, if prioritized, would better support humanitarian and state-building objectives otherwise subordinated in the War on Terror.     

Reassessing private military and security company (PMSC) ‘competition‘ in civil war: lessons from Sierra Leone

ABSTRACT

This paper challenges recent claims that competitive market dynamics incentivize Private Military and Security Companies (PMSCs) to fully commit to providing effective services, thereby reducing the duration of civil war. Our assessment of a most-likely case scenario for this argument – Sierra Leone – reveals four critical problems. First, there is rarely direct competition, even if numerous companies are present. Second, the presence of multiple PMSCs usually represents a collaboration among subsidiaries providing distinct services, often under the same corporate umbrella. Third, data aggregation obfuscates the overlap of PMSC presence, inflating the amount of perceived competition. Finally, we raise concerns regarding how quantitative analyses can conflate conflict intensity with conflict termination.     

Using a birth‐and‐death process to estimate the steady‐state distribution of a periodic queue

If the number of customers in a queueing system as a function of time has a proper limiting steady‐state distribution, then that steady‐state distribution can be estimated from system data by fitting a general stationary birth‐and‐death (BD) process model to the data and solving for its steady‐state distribution using the familiar local‐balance steady‐state equation for BD processes, even if the actual process is not a BD process. We show that this indirect way to estimate the steady‐state distribution can be effective for periodic queues, because the fitted birth and death rates often have special structure allowing them to be estimated efficiently by fitting parametric functions with only a few parameters, for example, 2. We focus on the multiserver M_t/GI/s queue with a nonhomogeneous Poisson arrival process having a periodic time‐varying rate function. We establish properties of its steady‐state distribution and fitted BD rates. We also show that the fitted BD rates can be a useful diagnostic tool to see if an M_t/GI/s model is appropriate for a complex queueing system. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 664–685, 2015     

基于无偏GM(1,1)幂模型的意图威胁建模

在态势威胁的基础上,利用无偏GM(1,1)幂模型设计了一种敌机意图威胁的模型。首先,提出了素质因子和探测概率因子,在此基础上,建立了改进的态势威胁模型。然后,将角度作为特征量对敌机机动进行预测,并建立了意图威胁模型。最后,分别对态势威胁和意图威胁模型进行仿真。结果表明,意图威胁模型行之有效。