The effect of catastrophes on the strategic customer behavior in queueing systems

We consider the single server Markovian queue subject to Poisson generated catastrophes. Whenever a catastrophe occurs, all customers are forced to abandon the system, the server is rendered inoperative and an exponential repair time is set on. During the repair time new arrivals are allowed to join the system. We assume that the arriving customers decide whether to join the system or balk, based on a natural linear reward‐cost structure with two types of rewards: A (usual) service reward for those customers that receive service and a (compensation) failure reward for those customers that are forced to abandon the system due to a catastrophe. We study the strategic behavior of the customers regarding balking and derive the corresponding (Nash) equilibrium strategies for the observable and unobservable cases. We show that both types of strategic behavior may be optimal: to avoid the crowd or to follow it. The crucial factor that determines the type of customer behavior is the relative value of the service reward to the failure compensation. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

Why did Sudan Lose a small war in Southern Sudan?

ABSTRACT

When on the wrong end of an asymmetry in the projection of hard power, weaker sides countenance the grim arithmetic of avoiding direct and massed confrontations. Invariably, insurgents have over the ages tended to employ indirect tactical methods to render their stronger opponents ineffective. Ultimately – interest asymmetry, regime type, asymmetries of strategy, and external intervention – combine in a complex interplay and pattern, to militate against a strong side. In Sudan, these factors interacted throughout the civil wars to produce regional autonomy and finally an independent South Sudan in 2011. Similar strategic logic had confronted many large African states battling insurgencies in Ethiopia, Angola, Nigeria, Zaire, and apartheid-era South Africa. Oftentimes, weakening public resolve has caused these governments to accommodate, capitulate or withdraw even if they try not to blink. Notwithstanding the regime type, it can be concluded that the majority of strong actors are prone to fail in a protracted, asymmetric conflict. Hence, the notion of linking victory in counterinsurgency to the degree of openness (democratic polyarchies); or closeness (totalitarianism) – is still valid but highly contestable in the case of Africa’s large dysfunctional states.     

基于三粒子纠缠态的量子安全直接通信协议

提出了一种新的三粒子量子安全直接通信协议。通信过程利用decoy光子来检测窃听,保证信道安全。发送方将秘密消息编码在不同幺正操作上,通信双方通过Bell基和Z基测量可直接传递秘密消息。由于所有粒子都用于传输秘密消息,且传输一次可获得两比特信息,该协议具有较高的量子比特及量子密码协议效率;三粒子纠缠态的制备是已实现技术,该协议具有实际操作的意义。此外,该协议在量子信道中也是安全的。     

基于变结构方法的空空导弹鲁棒逆控制律设计

为克服动态逆控制严重依赖被控对象精确数学模型且鲁棒性较差的缺点,将动态逆与变结构方法相结合采用双环结构设计了空空导弹鲁棒动态逆控制律.将导弹飞行状态划分成快慢2个回路,慢回路(外环)采用变结构控制,并设计扩张状态观测器,对外环中的不确定性进行估计;快回路(内环)采用动态逆控制.仿真结果表明,所设计的控制律具有较好的动态特性和鲁棒性能.     

一种基于零控脱靶量的滑模末制导律设计

基于零控脱靶量的思想,提出一种能够有效针对大气层再入目标的滑模末制导律.首先,建立纵向平面内的弹目相对运动方程;然后利用扩张状态观测器对目标机动加速度信息进行估计,并对零控脱靶量算法进行分析,提出了制导律的设计思路;接着利用滑模变结构控制理论进行制导律的推导;最后进行仿真分析,仿真结果证明,所设计的制导律能够很好地对目标弹进行拦截,并且指令的跟踪效果也很好,从而验证了算法的有效性.     

Steady-state analysis of load balancing with Coxian-2 distributed service times

This paper studies load balancing for many-server (N servers) systems. Each server has a buffer of size b ? 1, and can have at most one job in service and b ? 1 jobs in the buffer. The service time of a job follows the Coxian-2 distribution. We focus on steady-state performance of load balancing policies in the heavy traffic regime such that the normalized load of system is λ = 1 ? N^?α for 0 < α < 0.5. We identify a set of policies that achieve asymptotic zero waiting. The set of policies include several classical policies such as join-the-shortest-queue (JSQ), join-the-idle-queue (JIQ), idle-one-first (I1F) and power-of-d-choices (Po d) with d = O(N^α log N). The proof of the main result is based on Stein's method and state space collapse. A key technical contribution of this paper is the iterative state space collapse approach that leads to a simple generator approximation when applying Stein's method.     

高校辅导员的职业形象与工作状态——基于知乎平台文本数据的质性研究

随着我国高等教育学生培养模式的演变与大学生心理健康教育重要性的突显,高校辅导员除思想政治教育和价值引领的主要职责外,更多承担起了大量的学生日常事务管理,其工作越来越呈现出了琐碎性、重复性、职业上升通道狭窄、导生关系紧张的明显特点。本研究基于知乎平台的文本数据,采用扎根理论的分析思路,对高校辅导员的职业形象及其工作状态进行刻画。研究发现:(1)在辅导员制度良性运行的情况下,辅导员与学生之间呈现出主体关系的平等性与沟通交流的友好性,但是一旦辅导员制度的运行走向异化,师生关系趋向紧张;(2)辅导员处于高校学生管理的第一线,尽管诸多问题的根源并非辅导员本身的工作失职,学生也容易将对制度规则、管理模式的不满泛化地转移至辅导员的身上,双方缺乏理解;(3)辅导员职责早已超越了行政事务性工作的范畴,作为院校与学生的中介点,辅导员身处于多元诉求与多重利益的交合处。平衡与协调多元主体之间的不同诉求成为辅导员工作的重点与难点。对此,要更加关注高校辅导员群体,从建立科学的多方参与工作评价机制与打造专业化、职业化的发展体系两方面对现有辅导员制度加以完善,将院校行政系统评价与学生群体评价相结合,同时加强辅导员的专业技能培训,为辅导员提供更加专业化的职业晋升通道。     

基于马氏过程的电子对抗装备伺服驱动器可用度分析

针对电子对抗装备天线伺服系统驱动器可用度评估问题,考虑其具有优先使用权冷贮备冗余设计的特点,运用马尔可夫过程分析的方法,研究修理工人数不同情况下伺服驱动器稳态可用度和瞬时可用度,建立相应的数学模型,最后进行实例验证,绘出不同维修策略下系统瞬时可用度随时间变化的曲线.     

有向无环图决策支持向量机和经验模式分解在轴承故障诊断中的应用

当旋转机械发生故障时,其振动信号常常表现出较为复杂的调制形式,经验模式分解能根据信号的真实物理意义完成自适应分解。支持向量机由于其出色的学习性能和良好的推广能力,使其在包括故障诊断在内的众多领域得到较为广泛的应用。利用经验模式分解结果提取频带能量特征向量,采用有向无环图决策支持向量机实现对轴承状态的判别,并基于留一法优化支持向量机的模型参数。最终的应用结果表明,基于EMD和有向无环图决策支持向量机方法可以有效实现对轴承的状态判别。     

复杂系统使用保障测试性设计方法初探--故障设备影响分析及其应用

分析了复杂系统使用保障测试性设计方法的技术背景,系统战备状态的含义、重要性和描述方法;重点探讨了系统设备级(初始约定层次)故障设备对系统分系统战备状态影响进行分析的有效方法。并以某防空导弹武器系统为例,介绍如何利用功能分析法具体解决复杂系统使用保障测试的可测性、可控制性和可观察性等工程化设计问题。推荐一组实用的系统/分系统战备状态(正常/降级/故障)判定逻辑运算数学模型和基层级综合保障(使用保障+维修保障)计划流程图。