基于矩阵变换的坦克驾驶训练数字化记录与评判系统研究

为了解决坦克驾驶训练中因操作状态难以保留、操作细节难以再现而无法实现对训练成果深入分析与客观评价的不足,以坦克驾驶训练数字化记录与评判系统总体设计为切入点,基于基础驾驶动作的分解与组合以及车辆状态信息获取设计了驾驶动作记录仪,实现了坦克驾驶训练过程中动作状态信息的采集与数字化存储,并应用矩阵变换理论,提出了一种基于关键性动作参数查找与判断的方法,对基础驾驶动作进行了过程识别与效果评判。分析表明:该系统的技术能对坦克驾驶动作状态进行数字化记录,而基于状态矩阵变换的方法能实现基本驾驶过程的识别与评判。     

基于能力映射的体系网络化建模与分析

从体系所具有的能力出发,准确地描述体系中实体之间的关系,建立体系结构模型是体系设计与分析的基础,也是基于能力的体系规划的关键。首先提出了能力到组分系统的映射规则,然后将所构建的体系二分网络转化为组分系统的加权合作网络,有效描述了体系组分系统间的复杂关系。最后给出了体系组分系统关系价值度量指标,并对网络模型进行社团结构分析,为基于能力的体系规划作了有益尝试。     

一种变质心高速旋转炮弹鲁棒姿态控制律

针对采用变质心技术的高速旋转炮弹的姿态控制问题,提出一种基于扩张状态观测器的动态面控制方法。根据由弹体和单滑块组成的多体系统的特点,建立了系统的姿态动力学模型,并对其进行了合理的简化。将系统的滚转通道引起的强耦合、建模误差及外部扰动等视为未知不确定干扰,并且考虑由于炮弹尺寸限制而引起的多体系统控制输入(滑块位移)的有限性,设计了扩张状态观测器和辅助系统,分别对系统的干扰进行观测以及处理控制输入的有限性,综合动态面控制技术设计了姿态控制律,最后基于李雅普诺夫稳定性原理证明了控制器的稳定性。仿真结果表明,该控制器能够在克服干扰的前提下快速稳定地跟踪指令信号,具有良好的控制精度和鲁棒性。     

基于动态窗口的灰色加权填充算法及应用?

为解决复杂系统中单属性缺失数据填充困难问题,提出了基于动态窗口的灰色加权填充算法。该算法通过建立双向灰色预测模型,并采用模型精度评价系数加权填充缺失数据,有效增强了算法的准确性;提出基于灰色模型评价系数反馈的动态伸缩窗口概念,寻找产生最优模型的训练数据序列,使算法具有良好的鲁棒性和适应性。实验结果表明,该方法在RMSE和MA两项指标上均优于传统的双向灰插值、灰插值、多项式插值等方法。     

Expansion planning for waste‐to‐energy systems using waste forecast prediction sets

We consider an expansion planning problem for Waste‐to‐Energy (WtE) systems facing uncertainty in future waste supplies. The WtE expansion plans are regarded as strategic, long term decisions, while the waste distribution and treatment are medium to short term operational decisions which can adapt to the actual waste collected. We propose a prediction set uncertainty model which integrates a set of waste generation forecasts and is constructed based on user‐specified levels of forecasting errors. Next, we use the prediction sets for WtE expansion scenario analysis. More specifically, for a given WtE expansion plan, the guaranteed net present value (NPV) is evaluated by computing an extreme value forecast trajectory of future waste generation from the prediction set that minimizes the maximum NPV of the WtE project. This problem is essentially a multiple stage min‐max dynamic optimization problem. By exploiting the structure of the WtE problem, we show this is equivalent to a simpler min‐max optimization problem, which can be further transformed into a single mixed‐integer linear program. Furthermore, we extend the model to optimize the guaranteed NPV by searching over the set of all feasible expansion scenarios, and show that this can be solved by an exact cutting plane approach. We also propose a heuristic based on a constant proportion distribution rule for the WtE expansion optimization model, which reduces the problem into a moderate size mixed‐integer program. Finally, our computational studies demonstrate that our proposed expansion model solutions are very stable and competitive in performance compared to scenario tree approaches. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 47–70, 2016     

The probability of the existence of a feasible flow in a stochastic transportation network

Stochastic transportation networks arise in various real world applications, for which the probability of the existence of a feasible flow is regarded as an important performance measure. Although the necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a feasible flow represented by an exponential number of inequalities is a well‐known result in the literature, the computation of the probability of all such inequalities being satisfied jointly is a daunting challenge. The state‐of‐the‐art approach of Prékopa and Boros, Operat Res 39 (1991) 119–129 approximates this probability by giving its lower and upper bounds using a two‐part procedure. The first part eliminates all redundant inequalities and the second gives the lower and upper bounds of the probability by solving two well‐defined linear programs with the inputs obtained from the first part. Unfortunately, the first part may still leave many non‐redundant inequalities. In this case, it would be very time consuming to compute the inputs for the second part even for small‐sized networks. In this paper, we first present a model that can be used to eliminate all redundant inequalities and give the corresponding computational results for the same numerical examples used in Prékopa and Boros, Operat Res 39 (1991) 119–129. We also show how to improve the lower and upper bounds of the probability using the multitree and hypermultitree, respectively. Furthermore, we propose an exact solution approach based on the state space decomposition to compute the probability. We derive a feasible state from a state space and then decompose the space into several disjoint subspaces iteratively. The probability is equal to the sum of the probabilities in these subspaces. We use the 8‐node and 15‐node network examples in Prékopa and Boros, Operat Res 39 (1991) 119–129 and the Sioux‐Falls network with 24 nodes to show that the space decomposition algorithm can obtain the exact probability of these classical examples efficiently. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 479–491, 2016     

Generalizing the survival signature to unrepairable homogeneous multi‐state systems

The notion of signature has been widely applied for the reliability evaluation of technical systems that consist of binary components. Multi‐state system modeling is also widely used for representing real life engineering systems whose components can have different performance levels. In this article, the concept of survival signature is generalized to a certain class of unrepairable homogeneous multi‐state systems with multi‐state components. With such a generalization, a representation for the survival function of the time spent by a system in a specific state or above is obtained. The findings of the article are illustrated for multi‐state consecutive‐k‐out‐of‐n system which perform its task at three different performance levels. The generalization of the concept of survival signature to a multi‐state system with multiple types of components is also presented. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 593–599, 2017     

基于数据场的作战单元价值评估模型

作战单元价值是目标选择的重要依据。根据作战单元在作战体系中的效用和影响,提出作战单元的属性价值和级联价值及其量化方法,利用层次分析法和数据场理论,分别评估作战单元的属性价值和级联价值,建立作战单元价值评估模型,并进行仿真分析,验证该评估模型的有效性。     

备件冷储备方案下装备群任务可靠性建模

针对具有相同结构功能的装备群系统可靠性评估问题,根据任务周期内对装备完好数的要求,合理表示了系统状态转移过程。以部件任务期间状态变化为研究对象,将系统等效表示为多阶段任务系统,即串行k/N(G)系统。在确定系统可行状态过程基础上,分别建立了部件寿命分布在3种不同情形下的系统任务可靠性模型,并分析了备件冷储备方案的影响。为确定系统任务期间备件携带量提供决策支持,最后给出了一个应用实例。     

论机械装备监测诊断技术的体系

装备监测诊断技术的研究对象是装备的状态信息.装备监测诊断技术的体系框架由状态信息检出、状态信息表征、装备状态识别和监测诊断工艺等四大部分构成.