网络战中的安全主动防护系统构想

根据网络战的要求,提出了一种网络安全主动防护系统,该系统把一种新型防火墙和网络监测系统结合起来,做到了对黑客入侵及病毒攻击的实时监测、捕获和主动防护,克服了传统网络防护系统的不足,如能开发研制,将有利于我军在未来的网络战中取得主动地位。     

半自主式火控系统Petri网建模与作战效能

智能化和无人化是火控系统的未来发展方向之一,半自主式火控系统是实现全自主式智能火控系统的必要过渡阶段。设计了半自主式火控系统的功能结构和信息流程,并基于Petri网建立了系统仿真模型,对系统搜索指示、智能规划和精确打击3个功能单元的工作过程进行了论证,最后对系统的时效性、首发命中率和整体作战效能等战技性能进行了详细分析,仿真实验证明半自主式火控系统在作战性能方面优于传统火控系统。     

具有战时随机延误与损耗的多配送中心路径优化

建立了具有战时随机延误与损耗的多配送中心配送路径安排模型,给出了基于随机模拟的蚁群算法。算法通过给定残存率、用时与置信度阈值,把多目标问题作为单目标来处理。用随机模拟的方法来求路径的置信度,并以此为基础搜索转移策略的临域与判断未遍历点的插入位置。算法设计了符合问题特点的从虚拟点出发的转移策略与对两类路段不同的信息素更新策略,确保算法的实现。最后,通过算例说明了该方法的可行性与有效性。     

Properties of the geometric and related processes

Some properties of the geometric process are studied along with those of a related process which we propose to call the α‐series process. It is shown that the expected number of counts at an arbitrary time does not exist for the decreasing geometric process. The decreasing version of the α‐series process does have a finite expected number of counts, under certain conditions. This process also has the same advantages of tractability as the geometric process; it exhibits some properties which may make it a useful complement to the increasing geometric process. In addition, it may be fit to observed data as easily as the geometric process. Applications in reliability and stochastic scheduling are considered in order to demonstrate the versatility of the alternative model. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

面向Agent的CPN及其在航天装备体系评价中的应用

为弥补Agent和Petri网在各自建模中的缺陷,分析了二者现有的几种结合方式,给出面向Agent的着色Petri网(AOCPN)的定义及其运行规则和分析方法。利用AOCPN建立了以海上目标监视和打击为任务的航天装备体系评价模型,对其逻辑特性和作战效能进行了分析。建模过程和仿真结果表明,AOCPN能够完整描述体系的逻辑和物理特性,可用于全面分析评价体系的性能和对作战结果的影响,有效追踪体系执行任务的过程。     

网络反舰巡航导弹探析

用网络作为武器的粘合剂,将武器整合成系统,达到功能的创新,是提升武器作战效能的有效途径,网络导弹是这一概念应用的结果。文中提出了网络导弹和复合搜索扇面的概念,在设想了系统的组成和控制方案后,导出了网络导弹的作战效能计算公式,并通过算例比较网络导弹与非网络导弹的作战效能。     

Failure profiles of coherent systems

In this paper we first introduce and study the notion of failure profiles which is based on the concepts of paths and cuts in system reliability. The relationship of failure profiles to two notions of component importance is highlighted, and an expression for the density function of the lifetime of a coherent system, with independent and not necessarily identical component lifetimes, is derived. We then demonstrate the way that failure profiles can be used to establish likelihood ratio orderings of lifetimes of two systems. Finally we use failure profiles to obtain bounds, in the likelihood ratio sense, on the lifetimes of coherent systems with independent and not necessarily identical component lifetimes. The bounds are relatively easy to compute and use. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Deterministic and stochastic scheduling with teamwork tasks

We study a class of new scheduling problems which involve types of teamwork tasks. Each teamwork task consists of several components, and requires a team of processors to complete, with each team member to process a particular component of the task. Once the processor completes its work on the task, it will be available immediately to work on the next task regardless of whether the other components of the last task have been completed or not. Thus, the processors in a team neither have to start, nor have to finish, at the same time as they process a task. A task is completed only when all of its components have been processed. The problem is to find an optimal schedule to process all tasks, under a given objective measure. We consider both deterministic and stochastic models. For the deterministic model, we find that the optimal schedule exhibits the pattern that all processors must adopt the same sequence to process the tasks, even under a general objective function GC = F(f₁(C₁), f₂(C₂), … , f_n(C_n)), where f_i(C_i) is a general, nondecreasing function of the completion time C_i of task i. We show that the optimal sequence to minimize the maximum cost MC = max f_i(C_i) can be derived by a simple rule if there exists an order f₁(t) ≤ … ≤ f_n(t) for all t between the functions {f_i(t)}. We further show that the optimal sequence to minimize the total cost TC = ∑ f_i(C_i) can be constructed by a dynamic programming algorithm. For the stochastic model, we study three optimization criteria: (A) almost sure minimization; (B) stochastic ordering; and (C) expected cost minimization. For criterion (A), we show that the results for the corresponding deterministic model can be easily generalized. However, stochastic problems with criteria (B) and (C) become quite difficult. Conditions under which the optimal solutions can be found for these two criteria are derived. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

C3I系统仿真模型自动生成方法

根据活动模型在C3I系统中应用的广泛性、仿真模型生成的困难性,以及二者之间的相似性,提出一种间接生成Petri网仿真模型的方法,即首先建立活动模型,然后在此基础上生成可执行Petri网模型,从而简化仿真模型的建立过程.还简要介绍二者之间的转换规则,并给出应用实例.     

Modeling and analysis of vessel casualties resulting from tanker traffic through narrow waterways

In this paper, we present a physics-based stochastic model to investigate vessel casualties resulting from tanker traffic through a narrow waterway. A state-space model is developed to represent the waterway and the location of vessels at a given time. We first determine the distribution of surface current at a given location of the waterway depending on channel geometry, bottom topography, boundary conditions, and the distribution of wind. Then we determine the distribution of the angular drift for a given vessel travelling at a given location of a waterway. Finally, we incorporate the drift probabilities and random arrival of vessels into a Markov chain model. By analyzing the time-dependent and the steady-state probabilities of the Markov chain, we obtain risk measures such as the probability of casualty at a given location and also the expected number of casualties for a given number of vessels arriving per unit time. Analysis of the Markovian model also yields an analytical result that shows that the expected number of casualties is proportional to square of the tanker arrival rate. We present our methodology on an experimental model of a hypothetical narrow waterway. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Reseach Logistics 46: 871–892, 1999