Stochastic call center staffing with uncertain arrival,service and abandonment rates: A Bayesian perspective

In this article, we introduce staffing strategies for the Erlang‐A queuing system in call center operations with uncertain arrival, service, and abandonment rates. In doing so, we model the system rates using gamma distributions that create randomness in operating characteristics used in the optimization formulation. We divide the day into discrete time intervals where a simulation based stochastic programming method is used to determine staffing levels. More specifically, we develop a model to select the optimal number of agents required for a given time interval by minimizing an expected cost function, which consists of agent and abandonment (opportunity) costs, while considering the service quality requirements such as the delay probability. The objective function as well as the constraints in our formulation are random variables. The novelty of our approach is to introduce a solution method for the staffing of an operation where all three system rates (arrival, service, and abandonment) are random variables. We illustrate the use of the proposed model using both real and simulated call center data. In addition, we provide solution comparisons across different formulations, consider a dynamic extension, and discuss sensitivity implications of changing constraint upper bounds as well as prior hyper‐parameters. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 460–478, 2016     

一种无师训练的模糊极小极大人工神经网络

提出了一种无师训练的fuzzymin max人工神经网络,它兼有一般fuzzymin max网与ART2网的优点,既弥补了fuzzymin max网不能自适应在线学习新类的缺陷,又消除了ART2网警戒门限过高的弊病.经模式识别仿真对比,对同样的输入数据,文中提出的网络用较低的警戒门限值即可达到ART2用很高的警戒门限值才能达到的分类效果,且计算量大大减少.得到的结论是:对模式识别而言,文中提出的网络比fuzzymin max网和ART2网更具有实用价值.     

神经网络技术及其在机器耳监测仪中的应用

介绍了利用GAL算法对装备产生的声音信号进行处理,改进完善了基于竞争学习的GAL神经网络。测试结果表明,基于GAL算法的智能耳诊断系统的识别精度和自学习方面优于传统算法。     

雷达网信息传输能力评估算法动态仿真

基于对连通概率、时效性函数、误信率的具体界定,对雷达网的信息传输能力进行了系统的研究。提出了一种具有良好操作性的定量评估方法,并对传输时延动态估计算法进行了仿真。     

现役船体结构可靠性评估理论研究现状及展望

作为现役船体结构可靠性评估的关键技术,可靠性评估理论直接决定了可靠性评估结果的有效性和置信度。从可靠性评估理论的计算原理、度量指标计算及工程应用等方面阐述了传统可靠性评估理论和非概率可靠性评估理论的发展历程及研究现状,分析、总结了各可靠性评估理论在现役船体结构可靠性中的优势及不足,给出了今后开展相关研究的展望,并指出了现役船体结构可靠性研究的重点。     

车用CAN网络瞬态干扰的来源及控制

CAN网络结构设计对其抗干扰特性的影响很大,良好的结构设计可以提高系统的稳定性,从车内CAN网络被干扰的实际问题入手,通过对CAN网络上采集到的干扰信号进行研究,结合车内电子部件的工作原理及发生电磁干扰的原理,分析产生此问题的原因,提出解决方案,并通过测试验证了解决方案的有效性,通过干扰发生器施加更大强度的干扰的方法,验证了改进方案的安全裕度,达到使用要求。     

Inventory policies for a make‐to‐order system with a perishable component and fixed ordering cost

We consider a make‐to‐order production system where two major components, one nonperishable (referred to as part 1) and one perishable (part 2), are needed to fulfill a customer order. In each period, replenishment decisions for both parts need to be made jointly before demand is realized and a fixed ordering cost is incurred for the nonperishable part. We show that a simple (s_n,S,S) policy is optimal. Under this policy, S along with the number of backorders at the beginning of a period if any and the availability of the nonperishable part (part 1) determines the optimal order quantity of the perishable part (part 2), while (s_n,S) guide when and how much of part 1 to order at each state. Numerical study demonstrates that the benefits of using the joint replenishment policy can be substantial, especially when the unit costs are high and/or the profit margin is low. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

空间飞网发射动力学建模仿真研究与地面试验

空间飞网是近来提出的一个创新的空间系统概念,在空间碎片处理和在轨服务方面具有独特的应用潜力.针对飞网系统的发射过程,利用建模仿真和地面试验两种手段进行了研究,建立了飞网发射的集中质量模型,设计了基于燃气助推质量块的飞网发射地面试验装置,开展了多次飞网发射试验.地面试验结果与模型仿真结果基本吻合,说明所建立的动力学模型可用于空间飞网系统设计.     

基于Petri网的指挥控制系统仿真

指挥控制系统是一个具有分布、并发、异步等特性的复杂系统,Petri网是描述具有此类特征系统的有效工具.提出了基于Petri网的指挥控制系统仿真平台的具体设计方案.介绍了仿真平台的实现方法和程序的设计思路,实现了对普通Petri网、X1系统的建模,进行了功能和结构上的分析,并对分析结果的现实意义作了进一步的讨论.     

有色Petri网在车辆综电系统总线建模中的应用

针对运用解析法对车辆电子系统进行建模分析困难这一问题,运用CPNs构建综合电子系统模型.提出了系统的建模分析方法,运用CPN_Tools进行建模,得出了某型车辆总线的系统模型.实验结果证明,基于CPNs的车辆综合电子系统总线建模的正确性与可行性.