Appointment scheduling at a multidisciplinary outpatient clinic using stochastic programming

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the problem of constructing an appointment template for scheduling patients at a specific type of multidisciplinary outpatient clinic called an integrated practice unit (IPU). The focus is on developing and solving a stochastic optimization model for a back pain IPU in the face of random arrivals, an uncertain patient mix, and variable service times. The deterministic version of the problem is modeled as a mixed integer program with the objective of minimizing a weighted combination of clinic closing time (duration) and total patient waiting time (length of stay). A two‐stage stochastic program is then derived to account for the randomness and the sequential nature of the decisions. Although it was not possible to solve the two‐stage problem for even a limited number of scenarios, the wait‐and‐see (WS) problem was sufficiently tractable to provide a lower bound on the stochastic solution. The introduction of valid inequalities, limiting indices, and the use of special ordered sets helped to speed up the computations. A greedy heuristic was also developed to obtain solutions much more quickly. Out of practical considerations, it was necessary to develop appointment templates with time slots at fixed intervals, which are not available from the WS solution. The first to be derived was the expected value (EV) template that is used to find the expected value of the EV solution (EEV). This solution provides an upper bound on the objective function value of the two‐stage stochastic program. The average gap between the EEV and WS solutions was 18%. Results from extensive computational testing are presented for the EV template and for our adaptation of three other templates found in the literature. Depending on the relative importance of the two objective function metrics, the results demonstrate the trade‐off that exists between them. For the templates investigated, the “closing time” ranged from an average of 235 to 275 minutes for a 300‐minute session, while the corresponding “total patient time in clinic” ranged from 80 to 71 minutes.     

A decomposition algorithm applied to planning the interdiction of stochastic networks

We describe the application of a decomposition based solution method to a class of network interdiction problems. The problem of maximizing the probability of sufficient disruption of the flow of information or goods in a network whose characteristics are not certain is shown to be solved effectively by applying a scenario decomposition method developed by Riis and Schultz [Comput Optim Appl 24 (2003), 267–287]. Computational results demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm and design decisions that result in speed improvements. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

基于随机虚拟样机的某型自行火炮扭力轴动力仿真

依据随机动力学、多体系统动力学和数理统计理论,借助MSC\Adams仿真软件和MATLAB工具,提出随机虚拟样机的概念。并以某型自行火炮的扭力轴为例,在建立的虚拟样机上,实现不确定性因素下从底盘整体到悬挂系统、再到扭力轴的动力仿真。     

一类搜索型多对二随机格斗的获胜概率

研究搜索型多对二随机格斗战斗模型。假设格斗开始时A方有m件武器,B方有2件武器,B方处于隐蔽状态,格斗开始后B方可以直接对A方进行射击,A方需先搜索到B方后才能进行射击。双方各为同类武器,都是集火射击,所有开火都是独立的,每件武器开火射击直到毁伤对方才重新射击下一个目标。对搜索时间和毁伤间隔时间都服从一般分布的随机格斗模型,通过分析各状态的特征,利用状态概率分析方法和向后递归时间方法建立状态方程,求出了格斗处在各个状态的概率,并得到双方的获胜概率计算公式。     

Partial equilibrium in risk‐based production decisions

Characteristically, a small subset of operational problems admit risk neutrality when contingent claims methodology were used in their analysis. That is, for the majority of manufacturing and production problems, operating cash flows are not directly linked to prices of traded assets. However, to the extent that correlations can be estimated, the methodology's applicability to a broader set of operational problems is supported. Our article addresses this issue with the objective of extending the use of contingent claims techniques to a larger set of operational problems. In broad terms, this objective entails a partial equilibrium approach to the problem of valuing uncertain cash flows. To this end, we assume risk aversion and cast our approach within Merton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model. In this context, we formulate a “generic” production valuation model that is framed as an exercise in stochastic optimal control. The model is versatile in its characterization and can easily be adapted to accommodate a wide‐ranging set of risk‐based operational problems where the underlying sources of uncertainty are not traded. To obtain results, the model is recast as a stochastic dynamic program to be solved numerically. The article addresses a number of fundamental issues in the analysis risk based decision problems in operations. First, in the approach provided, decisions are analyzed under a properly defined risk structure. Second, the process of analysis leads to suitably adjusted probability distributions through which, appropriately discounted expectations are derived. Third, through consolidating existing concepts into a standard and adaptable framework, we extend the applicability of contingent claims methodology to a broader set of operational problems. The approach is advantageous as it obviates the need for exogenously specifying utility functions or discount rates.© 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Averaging frameworks for simulation optimization with applications to simulated annealing

We present two frameworks for designing random search methods for discrete simulation optimization. One of our frameworks is very broad (in that it includes many random search methods), whereas the other one considers a special class of random search methods called point‐based methods, that move iteratively between points within the feasible region. Our frameworks involve averaging, in that all decisions that require estimates of the objective function values at various feasible solutions are based on the averages of all observations collected at these solutions so far. Also, the methods are adaptive in that they can use information gathered in previous iterations to decide how simulation effort is expended in the current iteration. We show that the methods within our frameworks are almost surely globally convergent under mild conditions. Thus, the generality of our frameworks and associated convergence guarantees makes the frameworks useful to algorithm developers wishing to design efficient and rigorous procedures for simulation optimization. We also present two variants of the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm and provide their convergence analysis as example application of our point‐based framework. Finally, we provide numerical results that demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of averaging and adaptivity in the context of SA. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

Polynomial‐time approximation schemes for two‐machine open shop scheduling with nonavailability constraints

This paper addresses a two‐machine open shop scheduling problem, in which the machines are not continuously available for processing. The processing of an operation affected by a non‐availability interval can be interrupted and resumed later. The objective is to minimize the makespan. We present two polynomial‐time approximation schemes, one of which handles the problem with one non‐availability interval on each machine and the other for the problem with several non‐availability intervals on one of the machines. Problems with a more general structure of the non‐availability intervals are not approximable in polynomial time within a constant factor, unless . © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

Allocation of two redundancies in two‐component series systems

The allocation of redundancies in a system to optimize the reliability of system performance is an interesting problem in reliability engineering and system security. In this article, we focus on the optimal allocation of two exponentially distributed active (standby) redundancies in a two‐component series system using the tool of stochastic ordering. For the case of active redundancy, stochastic comparisons are carried out in terms of the likelihood ratio and reversed hazard rate orders. For the case of standby redundancy, a likelihood ratio ordering result is developed. The results established here generalize and strengthen corresponding results in the recent literature. In addition, several numerical examples are used to explicate the results. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

Using a birth‐and‐death process to estimate the steady‐state distribution of a periodic queue

If the number of customers in a queueing system as a function of time has a proper limiting steady‐state distribution, then that steady‐state distribution can be estimated from system data by fitting a general stationary birth‐and‐death (BD) process model to the data and solving for its steady‐state distribution using the familiar local‐balance steady‐state equation for BD processes, even if the actual process is not a BD process. We show that this indirect way to estimate the steady‐state distribution can be effective for periodic queues, because the fitted birth and death rates often have special structure allowing them to be estimated efficiently by fitting parametric functions with only a few parameters, for example, 2. We focus on the multiserver M_t/GI/s queue with a nonhomogeneous Poisson arrival process having a periodic time‐varying rate function. We establish properties of its steady‐state distribution and fitted BD rates. We also show that the fitted BD rates can be a useful diagnostic tool to see if an M_t/GI/s model is appropriate for a complex queueing system. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 664–685, 2015     

Inventory models with nonlinear shortage costs and stochastic lead times; applications of shape properties of randomly stopped counting processes

In this article, we study generalizations of some of the inventory models with nonlinear costs considered by Rosling in (Oper. Res. 50 (2002) 797–809). In particular, we extend the study of both the periodic review and the compound renewal demand processes from a constant lead time to a random lead time. We find that the quasiconvexity properties of the cost function (and therefore the existence of optimal (s, S) policies), holds true when the lead time has suitable log‐concavity properties. The results are derived by structural properties of renewal delayed processes stopped at an independent random time and by the study of log‐concavity properties of compound distributions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 345–356, 2015