Croatia's bitter harvest: Total National Defence's role in the Croatian War of Independence

Croatia's successful bid for independence was one of the defining moments of the immediate post-Cold War period. Nevertheless, the means that Croatia used to obtain independence remains relatively unexamined by academics. This article focuses on the early period of Croatia's bid for secession, and specifically the role that Yugoslavia's policy of Total National Defence played in facilitating its independence. Unlike in Slovenia, where the legacies of Total National Defence facilitated Slovenia's bid for secession, in Croatia the decision of its political leaders meant that the country largely neglected its positive legacies, resulting in a protracted four-year struggle.     

Explaining the impact of militancy on Iran–Pakistan relations

ABSTRACT

Sectarian militants have for years launched attacks from Pakistan across the border to Iran. Finding sanctuary in a neighbouring country can make the difference between success and failure for militants. Conventional wisdom holds that a lasting transnational militancy challenge would typically create serious interstate conflict. Militancy has triggered armed encounters between Iran and Pakistan. This article argues that despite some tension militancy has resulted in deeper cooperation in the ambivalent dyad. Both states’ overarching security concerns, having exhausted other options, the believed involvement of third-party states, and economic potential, have moderately alleviated negative pressure caused by militancy.     

‘Stay-Behind’ in France: Much ado about nothing?

Stay-behind networks in France were set up starting in 1948 and were aimed at responding to the possibility of a Soviet armed attack into Western Europe. Participants were identified, and arms and explosives cached, to be activated in case of hostilities. This activity became folded into a multilateral effort under the Allied Coordination Committee (ACC) of NATO. In France, the network was run as a highly compartmented activity under the French external intelligence service (DGSE). As the Soviet threat receded, the stay-behind activity became more and more dormant, and in 1990 it was quietly disbanded, immediately after the P-2 scandal broke in Italy.     

CIVIL SOCIETY AND VIOLENCE—HOW TO MANAGE IN THE TOWNSHIPS WITHOUT THE ARMY

This article discusses the validity of national security threats in Botswana and whether they justified the creation of the Directorate of Intelligence and Security Services (DISS), which has been controversial since its formation. Since its inception in 2008, the DISS has been accused of many human rights violations and politicisation. Without fully deliberating on the basis for its creation, some discourses have focused on the politicised operations without relation to what the DISS is supposed to be doing. The author works under the assumption that debates should be shaped by whether it was necessary to create the DISS, and, if so, how we can shape and steer debates on its oversight, management, reform and operations. This article argues that despite the politicisation of the DISS, Botswana's national security threats are both real and imagined; and that domestic threats to national security have moved from the conceptual ‘imagined’ category to the ‘real’. However, that in itself did not warrant the design and mandate of the DISS, and the article argues that it was external threats that really warranted the creation of a civilian intelligence agency. The article concludes that Botswana faces a plethora of external security threats – traditional and non-traditional – that warranted the creation and continuance of the DISS.     

基于Petri网的案例推理研究

介绍Petri网的知识表示方法以及案例推理机制的相关内容,提出了一种基于Petri网的案例推理模型,给出了相应的案例检索匹配算法,并将该模型和检索算法应用到网络攻防态势推演系统中,最后重点介绍了该系统的案例库的知识表示。     

基于免疫粒子群算法的自抗扰飞行控制器设计

提出了一种基于免疫粒子群优化算法的自抗扰大包线飞行控制器设计方法.针对传统的增益调参设计方法存在的工作量巨大与设计效率低的问题,利用自抗扰控制器进行大包线飞行控制器设计,并推导了适用于该方法的飞机非线性方程.由于自抗扰控制能够动态补偿对象模型的内扰和外扰,因此在很大的飞行区域内仅需一套控制器便可,从而避免了烦琐复杂的增益调参设计过程,并用免疫粒子群优化算法对自抗扰控制器参数进行了优化研究.仿真结果表明,所设计的自抗扰控制器具有优良的控制性能,并且控制器参数在较大的包线范围内不需要改变,从而简化了大包线飞行控制器设计.     

基于压制武器系统的自组网实现方法

根据压制武器系统网络的特点和未来战争对武器系统的要求,将自组网引入到了压制武器系统网络,介绍了其实现方法。该方法结合通用的自组网协议提出了网络的设计方案,采用了跨层的方法,主要设计链路层、网络层和传输层,网络实现采用模块化的设计方式。本网络具有一定的自组织、自恢复能力,具有更高的可靠性、灵活性,在一定的距离范围内能够满足网络通信的基本要求。     

军用车辆行动部分疲劳寿命随机有限元分析

阐述了基于随机有限元的车辆行动部分可靠性原理及基本过程,将结构件的弹性模量、泊松比和几何尺寸等因素定义为随机场,并对其进行离散,同时分析了车辆行驶的典型路面的路面谱,利用随机有限元求解在不同的路面状况下车辆行动零部件的受力情况,得到了零部件危险点应力的随机分布和不同路面状况下疲劳可靠性,并对相关的实例进行分析。     

海浪水压场正态性及参数模型

在对不同海域、不同海况和不同水深下测的大量海浪水压场数据分析的基础上,采用Epps-Pulley检验方法对海浪水压场信号的正态性进行了检验,进而利用Box-Jenkins方法对海浪水压场信号服从何种线性模型进行了辨识。结果表明,在100 s时间内,海浪水压场信号服从或近似服从正态分布,并可利用AR模型对其进行描述。     

FMEA与粗糙集相结合的故障预测方法

基于FMEA和粗糙集决策系统基本理论,对飞机中分系统故障预测问题进行了研究。首先定义故障预测所需的征兆并对系统进行FMEA,按照FMEA分析结果分次向系统模型注入引起特定故障的事件,采集含有故障趋势的系统模型的信息用于构建适用于故障预测的粗糙集决策表,对该表进行了处理,最终发现用于故障预测的知识(即决策规则和算法);最后运用所发现的知识进行故障预测。