可修系统可靠性统计分析模型的改进

阐述了复杂可修系统可靠性统计分析的特点及威布尔过程模型的适用性;引入修复影响系数对威布尔过程模型作了改进;给出了一个可供参考的计算示例.     

分段试验的可行性

运用随机点过程方法,从理论上对可修系统能否进行分段试验进行了研究.论证了对于泊松过程模型分段试验的可行性,并研究了分段试验对参数估计的影响.     

基于混合建模方法的三维彩色树木快速模拟算法

在对多种模型进行研究的基础上，提出了一种快速模拟三维彩色树木的高效算法。该算法不仅合理简化了树木的几何拓扑结构和生长规律特性，而且引入了特性良好、计算简单、参数易于控制的随机函数。因此生成树木的种类较多、图形逼真、速度很快，在普通微机上达到了实时的模拟效果。     

数据驱动的复杂系统非预期故障诊断通用过程模型

提高对复杂系统非预期故障诊断能力是故障诊断领域的难点。结合非预期故障诊断内涵及基本原理,构建了一种用于复杂系统非预期故障诊断的通用过程模型。该模型采用四层递进结构,包括四个主要模型,即预期(已知)故障检测模型、预期(已知)故障识别模型、非预期(未知)故障检测模型和非预期(未知)故障识别模型。分析了各模型所包含的关键问题及其相应的实现算法,包括检测统计量的构建及评估、故障特征方向提取、故障识别器设计及故障贡献率计算。该通用过程模型规范了复杂系统非预期故障的诊断流程,明确了数据驱动的实现原理。以卫星姿态控制系统为例,验证了非预期故障诊断通用过程模型的有效性。     

维护条件下产品寿命分布规律分析

为了掌握维护条件下产品寿命分布规律,进一步解释其失效特性,从维护条件下产品性能状态变化角度出发,结合累积失效理论,利用复合Poisson过程建立了可靠性模型,得到了该条件下产品在线寿命分布模型。在此基础上,建立了维护条件下产品总体寿命分布模型,并利用偏度-峰度系数和贴近度分析,对维护条件下产品在线寿命分布和总体寿命分布规律进行了数值计算,解释了工程产品在线往往具有集中失效,而总体又具有随机失效的特性。以水泵转子为研究对象,通过数值分析,较好地描述了其定期维护条件下的可靠度和寿命分布,进一步验证了模型的可行性。     

Centralized inventory control in a two‐level distribution system with Poisson demand

This paper introduces a new replenishment policy for inventory control in a two‐level distribution system consisting of one central warehouse and an arbitrary number of nonidentical retailers. The new policy is designed to control the replenishment process at the central warehouse, using centralized information regarding the inventory positions and demand processes of all installations in the system. The retailers on the other hand are assumed to use continuous review (R, Q) policies. A technique for exact evaluation of the expected inventory holding and backorder costs for the system is presented. Numerical results indicate that there are cases when considerable savings can be made by using the new (α₀, Q₀) policy instead of a traditional echelon‐ or installation‐stock (R, Q) policy. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 798–822, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10040     

Markovian models of three‐on‐one combat involving a hidden defender

In this paper, Markovian models of three‐on‐one stochastic firefights between ground‐based weapon systems are developed. These models address a common scenario of interest to the military, but one which has been much neglected in analytic combat models, that of combat between a hidden defender and an exposed attacking force. Each combatant must detect an opponent before commencing their firing cycle, a task which is considerably more difficult for the attacker. In the models developed here, the defender detects the exposed attacking group after an exponentially distributed time interval, while each attacker has a fixed probability of detecting the defender via the flash signature produced after each shot fired by him. The utility of the approach is demonstrated by investigating what impact the introduction of a coordinated gun‐laying system for the attacking force might have, a system made possible by battlefield digitization. The method used here allows models to be developed incrementally. This and other advantages of the Markovian approach are discussed. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 627–646, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10041     

稳态随机过程激励下基于首次超越破坏的结构优化设计

把结构系统动力可靠性分析与最优化设计结合起来 ,以结构系统的最小质量为目标函数 ,给出了考虑在平稳随机过程激励下多自由度线性系统总的可靠性的结构优化设计方法。运用谱分析理论 ,推导了结构系统在平稳随机过程激励下响应的统计特征 ,同时结合首次超越破坏的Possion模型计算结构系统的可靠性 ,最终采用广义乘子法得到结构系统设计变量的最优值。计算结果表明该方法是可行的     

具有随机寿命的二维期权定价

由于期权合约在到期日之前可能被终止及标的资产的价格可能会因重大信息的到达而发生跳跃 ,文中在假设合约被终止的风险与重大信息导致的价格跳跃风险皆为非系统的风险情况下 ,应用无套利资本资产定价及Feynman kac公式 ,首先研究了标的资产服从连续扩散过程和跳—扩散过程具有随机寿命的交换期权定价 ,得到相应的定价公式 ;然后 ,研究了标的资产服从跳—扩散过程及利率随机变化具有随机寿命的期权定价 ,得到相应的定价公式     

平板显示控制器在便携式火炮测径窥膛仪中的应用

应用AVERLOGIC公司最新研制的平板显示控制器AL300,实现了便携式火炮测径窥膛仪的火炮直径数据采集、炮膛视频图像转换与显示系统设计。该系统以微处理器AT89C52为控制核心,利用AL300控制液晶显示屏,同时显示炮膛视频图像和直径测量数据。