分布式火控系统实时通信的设计实现

实时可靠的通信系统是实现分布式火控的关键。介绍了在一个小型实时通信系统的设计中,为保证通信的实时性采取了节拍控制、数据分级、重发限制等方法,为提高通信可靠性采用了断路重组技术、差错控制和冗余技术,软件采用了面向对象分层次模块化设计的方法,提高了可维性和可扩展性。通过这些措施,实现了5km距离内数据和语音的多点实时传输,误码率小于10-6,通信时延小于150ms,满足了分布式火控系统的要求。     

基于分布式排队网络的防空战术协同模型

分析了多个防空火力单元的作战过程,将战术BM/C3的控制协调决策抽象为决策策略。建立了多个火力单元协同作战的排队网络模型,并运用SPN理论对排队网络的运行机制进行了强有力的描述,有效地体现了防空作战过程中的威胁评估、目标分配等战术决策过程。这将为建立大型复杂排队网络,模拟仿真战役层面防空作战过程奠定基础。     

GSPN的分析方法及其应用

随着计算机和信息技术的发展,广义随机Petri网(G SPN)作为一种图形化的建模工具,不仅可以对系统进行形式化的描述和快速原型开发,而且由于其具有坚实的数学理论基础,可以对系统进行正确性验证和性能评价,因此在系统的设计过程中,得到了广泛的应用。基于结构分析方法、可达图分析和数值分析方法讨论分析了G SPN,并给出了具体的算例,最后讨论了G SPN的应用领域。     

A model of supply-chain decisions for resource sharing with an application to ventilator allocation to combat COVID-19

We present a stochastic optimization model for allocating and sharing a critical resource in the case of a pandemic. The demand for different entities peaks at different times, and an initial inventory for a central agency are to be allocated. The entities (states) may share the critical resource with a different state under a risk-averse condition. The model is applied to study the allocation of ventilator inventory in the COVID-19 pandemic by FEMA to different U.S. states. Findings suggest that if less than 60% of the ventilator inventory is available for non-COVID-19 patients, FEMA's stockpile of 20 000 ventilators (as of March 23, 2020) would be nearly adequate to meet the projected needs in slightly above average demand scenarios. However, when more than 75% of the available ventilator inventory must be reserved for non-COVID-19 patients, various degrees of shortfall are expected. In a severe case, where the demand is concentrated in the top-most quartile of the forecast confidence interval and states are not willing to share their stockpile of ventilators, the total shortfall over the planning horizon (until May 31, 2020) is about 232 000 ventilator days, with a peak shortfall of 17 200 ventilators on April 19, 2020. Results are also reported for a worst-case where the demand is at the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval. An important finding of this study is that a central agency (FEMA) can act as a coordinator for sharing critical resources that are in short supply over time to add efficiency in the system. Moreover, through properly managing risk-aversion of different entities (states) additional efficiency can be gained. An additional implication is that ramping up production early in the planning cycle allows to reduce shortfall significantly. An optimal timing of this production ramp-up consideration can be based on a cost-benefit analysis.     

Pricing and inventory management during new product introduction when shortage creates hype

In this study, we analyze the joint pricing and inventory management during new product introduction when product shortage creates additional demand due to hype. We develop a two‐period model in which a firm launches its product at the beginning of the first period, before it observes sales in the two periods. The product is successful with an exogenous probability, or unsuccessful with the complementary probability. The hype in the second period is observed only when the product is successful. The firm learns the actual status of the product only after observing the first‐period demand. The firm must decide the stocking level and price of the product jointly at the beginning of each of the two periods. In this article, we derive some structural properties of the optimal prices and inventory levels, and show that (i) firms do not always exploit hype, (ii) firms do not always increase the price of a successful product in the second period, (iii) firms may price out an unsuccessful product in the first period if the success probability is above a threshold, and (iv) such a threshold probability is decreasing in the first‐period market potential of the successful product. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 304–320, 2015     

Chance‐constrained multi‐terminal network design problems

We consider a reliable network design problem under uncertain edge failures. Our goal is to select a minimum‐cost subset of edges in the network to connect multiple terminals together with high probability. This problem can be seen as a stochastic variant of the Steiner tree problem. We propose two scenario‐based Steiner cut formulations, study the strength of the proposed valid inequalities, and develop a branch‐and‐cut solution method. We also propose an LP‐based separation for the scenario‐based directed Steiner cut inequalities using Benders feasibility cuts, leveraging the success of the directed Steiner cuts for the deterministic Steiner tree problem. In our computational study, we test our branch‐and‐cut method on instances adapted from graphs in SteinLib Testdata Library with up to 100 nodes, 200 edges, and 17 terminals. The performance of our branch‐and‐cut method demonstrates the strength of the scenario‐based formulations and the benefit from adding the additional valid inequalities that we propose. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 321–334, 2015     

一种改进遗传算法在UCAV快速航迹规划中的应用

针对无人作战飞机(Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle,UCAV)航迹规划约束条件复杂、不确定因素多、实时性要求高的特点,提出了一种基于Voronoi图和改进遗传算法的快速航迹规划方法。该方法采取分层航迹规划的思想,首先根据Voronoi图生成初始航迹,并综合考虑约束条件,赋予各条航迹相应的权值;然后应用改进的遗传算法在生成的航迹空间中寻优,最终得到满意的航迹。该算法利用多处理机并行计算技术对传统遗传算法进行改进,大大缩短寻优时间。仿真结果表明基于Voronoi图和改进遗传算法的航迹规划提高了实时性,增强了UCAV的动态战场适应能力和突发威胁应对能力。     

高级在轨系统的自相似业务量预测链路优化模型

在AOS高级在轨系统链路协议的基础上,分析了具有自相似特性的业务流量,提出了一种基于FARIMA模型的自相似预测的链路优化模型。该预测模型基于分数阶统计理论,在估计赫斯特参数的基础上,根据不同的时间粒度,提前预测突发业务量的到来,从而降低了网络丢包率。仿真表明模型在20点预测内具有较好拟合性,在一定置信区间下具有较好的预测成功概率和较低的虚警概率,同时使网络丢包率大幅下降。     

随机布阵条件下同时数字多波束干扰优化设计方法

针对现有方法普遍存在的波束形成算法效率低、难以形成多频点多方向的同时多波束干扰、不适用于随机布阵条件下的波束形成等缺点,提出了一种基于二阶锥规划(SOCP,Second-Order Cone Programming)理论的同时数字多波束干扰形成方法。首先,给出了在随机布阵条件下干扰多波束优化设计问题的数学描述;其次,以范数准则为例,将随机布阵条件下干扰多波束设计问题的解析形式转化为相应的SOCP形式;再次,利用现有的原-对偶内点算法工具箱Se Du Mi或者CVX进行快速求解。最后,仿真结果表明该方法可以较好地解决随机布阵条件下的多频率多方向雷达目标同时多波束干扰优化设计问题。     

White hull or white elephant? Soft power and the Chinese hospital ship,the Peace Ark

Although soft power is now seen as an indispensable foreign policy tool, its efficacy has rarely been put to a rigorous empirical test. Using data from HARMONIOUS MISSIONs 2010, 2011 and 2013, this article seeks to examine the degree to which the soft power engagement missions of the Chinese hospital ship, the Peace Ark, has advanced Chinese interests. Although any conclusions drawn must be considered preliminary, as so little time has passed between the ship's visits and the current analysis, this research indicates that these missions’ impact on advancing Chinese interests was at best limited. Although observations from a single set of cases are unlikely to settle the debate between soft power advocates and detractors, it is hoped that this research will serve as a catalyst to further empirically based research on this topic.