态势估计中一种基于最大后验概率估计的时间推理方法

态势估计中统计时间推理在许多应用中非常重要。Ｋｉｒｉｌｏｖ的基于极大似然估计（ＭａｘｉｍｕｍＬｉｋｅｌｉｈｏｏｄＥｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎ，ＭＬＥ）的推理方法将未知时间变量看作常数，忽略了它的先验信息，估计方差较大。针对这一问题，本文首先建立了已知时间信息和未知时间变量之间的关系模型，这一模型可用来解释Ｋｉｒｉｌｏｖ的方法；然后在这一模型下，将未知时间变量扩展为随机变量，采用基于最大后验概率估计（ＭａｘｉｍｕｍａＰｏｓ－ｔｅｒｉｏｒｉＥｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎ，ＭＡＰ）的方法进行统计时间推理。对两种推理算法的性能进行了分析和比较，发现在较宽的范围内，基于ＭＡＰ的方法性能优于基于ＭＬＥ的方法。     

基于神经网络的非线性控制系统自组织辨识

本文首先将自组织神经网络算法向一般化情形引伸，接着把自组织过程应用到一般非线性系统的动态过程分类，使得整个非线性系统能够按照输入输出样本空间的概率密度自组织，成为许多具有不同分类核心和感受野的线性子空间逼近。在此基础上，我们采用通用最小二乘算法，以子空间的非线性问题线性化误差作为依据，并进一步运用自组织神经网络的合作与竞争思想，最终得到一般情形的非线性系统的最小二乘辨识。仿真结果表明了本方法的可行性与优越性。     

随机快速光滑二阶滑模末制导律设计

针对目标随机机动、惯性延迟、参数变化等因素降低导弹末制导精度的问题,提出新型随机快速光滑二阶滑模控制方法。将目标机动简化为零均值高斯白噪声过程,制导系统成为带加性噪声随机不确定非线性系统。考虑到该系统不存在平衡点,提出有限时间二阶均方实用收敛概念,并基于此证明了所设计控制律的收敛特性。根据直接命中条件设计滑模面,得到随机快速光滑二阶滑模制导律。在尾追和迎头两种态势下,将该新型制导律与扩展比例导引、一般滑模制导律及确定性光滑二阶滑模制导律进行仿真比较,验证了该方法的正确性和有效性。     

相控阵天线阵面两级备件优化配置模型

针对相控阵天线阵面备件配置存在的冗余性强、批量送修、多级维修等现实问题,综合考虑备件费用、维修能力以及库存策略之间的关系,建立了基于定期补给的两级备件优化配置模型。给出了系统的故障件维修周转过程和维修备件的定期补给过程,在分析备件、库存、维修能力之间关系的基础上,结合成批到达的排队理论,建立了系统的供应可用度模型。以备件配置费用最小为目标、以系统供应可用度为约束条件,建立了系统的备件优化配置模型,并通过边际效益分析法对模型进行了求解。通过算例仿真与分析对模型进行了验证。结果表明:构建的备件配置能够较好地解决相控阵天线阵面的备件配置问题,具有一定的优越性。     

光电探测系统电源通用化设计与实现

为应对全天候、全天时实时使用要求,光电探测系统逐渐从功能单一的光电探测系统演变为多功能、多传感器的综合光电系统。因此,具体进行工程设计时,系统电源组件的技术指标要合理,满足系统使用要求。同时,组件维修、故障诊断、部件互换也要容易。针对此问题,基于描述的光电探测系统电源通用化设计原则,提出了一种可工程化设计方案。该方案对电源硬件结构设置、电源控制管理和电源功能扩展设计等进行了讨论,并给出具体设计方法。通过实际应用验证表明,该方案能够满足系统对电源组件的要求。     

一种可堆叠存储介质的设计

参考服务器/客户端的可堆叠通信模式,以最常见的SATA硬盘作为存储介质,Marvell 88SM9705为核心控制芯片,设计了一种可堆叠的存储介质。经测试,88SM9705通过解析主机端发送来的SATA 3.0协议定义的帧信息结构(Frame Information Structure,FIS)中PM Port地址字段,能依次对其所连接的多个SATA硬盘进行正确的读、写等操作,实现了存储设备的可堆叠,稳定性能良好。是一种实现扩容同步提速的可堆叠存储阵列解决方案,在嵌入式存储系统领域具有很好的应用前景。     

A single‐period inventory placement problem for a serial supply chain

This article addresses the inventory placement problem in a serial supply chain facing a stochastic demand for a single planning period. All customer demand is served from stage 1, where the product is stored in its final form. If the demand exceeds the supply at stage 1, then stage 1 is resupplied from stocks held at the upstream stages 2 through N, where the product may be stored in finished form or as raw materials or subassemblies. All stocking decisions are made before the demand occurs. The demand is nonnegative and continuous with a known probability distribution, and the purchasing, holding, shipping, processing, and shortage costs are proportional. There are no fixed costs. All unsatisfied demand is lost. The objective is to select the stock quantities that should be placed different stages so as to maximize the expected profit. Under reasonable cost assumptions, this leads to a convex constrained optimization problem. We characterize the properties of the optimal solution and propose an effective algorithm for its computation. For the case of normal demands, the calculations can be done on a spreadsheet. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48:506–517, 2001     

A risk function for the stochastic modeling of electric capacity expansion

We present a stochastic optimization model for planning capacity expansion under capacity deterioration and demand uncertainty. The paper focuses on the electric sector, although the methodology can be used in other applications. The goals of the model are deciding which energy types must be installed, and when. Another goal is providing an initial generation plan for short periods of the planning horizon that might be adequately modified in real time assuming penalties in the operation cost. Uncertainty is modeled under the assumption that the demand is a random vector. The cost of the risk associated with decisions that may need some tuning in the future is included in the objective function. The proposed scheme to solve the nonlinear stochastic optimization model is Generalized Benders' decomposition. We also exploit the Benders' subproblem structure to solve it efficiently. Computational results for moderate‐size problems are presented along with comparison to a general‐purpose nonlinear optimization package. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48:662–683, 2001     

流形上的状态反馈控制策略

在流形上研究非线性系统的反馈镇定问题 ,针对线性化系统存在不可控不稳定子空间和不可控中心子空间几种情形 ,提出通过构造中心流形的控制策略 ,使线性化系统变为完全可控系统 .给出的系列定理表明 :①在线性化系统完全可控条件下 ,线性多输入反馈控制足可以使非线性系统镇定于原点 ;若原点为双曲的 ,则单输入线性控制是足够的 ;②线性化系统部份可控时 ,若不可控子空间是不稳定子空间 ,则存在中心流形控制器 ,使系统在原点邻域的平衡点上变为完全可控系统 ;若不可控子空间是中心子空间 ,则既可以通过中心流形将系统反馈镇定于原点 ,又可以重新构造中心流形使系统在原点的邻域内变为完全可控系统 ;③将存在不可控单零特征根的系统镇定于原点 ,构成了控制器的设计算法 .     

The “signature” of a coherent system and its application to comparisons among systems

Various methods and criteria for comparing coherent systems are discussed. Theoretical results are derived for comparing systems of a given order when components are assumed to have independent and identically distributed lifetimes. All comparisons rely on the representation of a system's lifetime distribution as a function of the system's “signature,” that is, as a function of the vector p= (p₁, … , p_n), where p_i is the probability that the system fails upon the occurrence of the ith component failure. Sufficient conditions are provided for the lifetime of one system to be larger than that of another system in three different senses: stochastic ordering, hazard rate ordering, and likelihood ratio ordering. Further, a new preservation theorem for hazard rate ordering is established. In the final section, the notion of system signature is used to examine a recently published conjecture regarding componentwise and systemwise redundancy. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 507–523, 1999