战略预警系统数据集成模型研究

设计了一种数据集成在战略预警系统中的应用模型,模型采用XML语言在.NET环境下用C#语言实现战略预警系统的中间件,该中间件将各个子系统粘合在一起,从而形成战略预警系统,该模型为目前急需建设的战略预警系统提供了一种解决方案。     

一种制取缸内示功图的新方法

本文基于舰艇柴油机的推进工况,研究通过测试一组稳态参数,建立物理和数学模型,获取缸内示功图。分析认为:该方法简单实用、成本低,与实测示功图比较误差小,完全满足使用管理中性能分析、工况评判、故障诊断等方面的需要,是解决舰艇柴油机实测示功图困难的一种新的尝试。     

US Advanced Conventional Systems and Conventional Prompt Global Strike Ambitions:

ABSTRACT

The dangers and risks of employing a Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) capability greatly exceed the benefits. More suitable, if less prompt, alternatives exist to deal with fleeting targets. Even a niche CPGS capability—consisting of approximately twenty systems—carries risks, to say nothing of proposals to develop hundreds or more. Most dangerously, CPGS could stir the pre-emption pot, particularly vis-à-vis states that correctly perceive to be within the gunsights of US CPGS weapons; other states, too, may feel emboldened to emulate this US precedent and undertake their own form of prompt, long-range strike capability. Compressed circumstances surrounding such a scenario could foster unwanted erratic behavior, including the misperception that the threatening missile carries a nuclear weapon. But the true Achilles's heel of the CPGS concept is the unprecedented demands it places on the intelligence community to provide decision makers with “exquisite” intelligence within an hour timeframe. Such compressed conditions leave decision makers with virtually no time to appraise the direct—and potentially unintended—consequences of their actions.     

EDITOR'S NOTE

This article offers a survey of risks that might arise for strategic stability (defined as a situation with a low probability of major-power war) with the reduction of US and Russian nuclear arsenals to “low numbers” (defined as 1,000 or fewer nuclear weapons on each side). These risks might include US anti-cities targeting strategies that are harmful to the credibility of extended deterrence; renewed European anxiety about a US-Russian condominium; greater vulnerability to Russian noncompliance with agreed obligations; incentives to adopt destabilizing “launch-on-warning” strategies; a potential stimulus to nuclear proliferation; perceptions of a US disengagement from extended deterrence; increased likelihood of non-nuclear arms competitions and conflicts; and controversial pressures on the UK and French nuclear forces. Observers in North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) states who consider such risks significant have cited four possible measures that might help to contain them: sustained basing of US nonstrategic nuclear weapons in Europe; maintaining a balanced US strategic nuclear force posture; high-readiness means to reconstitute US nuclear forces; and enhanced US and allied non-nuclear military capabilities. These concrete measures might complement the consultations with the NATO allies that the United States would in all likelihood seek with respect to such important adjustments in its deterrence and defense posture.     

智能化作战及军队战略推进与发展

未来智能化战争将是基于物联网络信息系统,使用智能化武器装备及相应作战方法,在陆、海、空、天、电、网及认知领域进行的一体化战争。本文在分析智能化作战的内涵有机理基础上,探讨了美军未来智能化作战构想、实施及影响,重点提出了应对未来知能化作战,加强我军战略推进与发展的对策。     

How durable is the nuclear weapons taboo?

The nuclear weapons taboo is considered one of the strongest norms in international politics. A prohibition against using nuclear weapons has seemingly shaped state behavior for nearly seven decades and, according to some observers, made nuclear use ‘unthinkable’ today or in the future. Although scholars have shown that nuclear aversion has affected decision-making behavior, important questions about the nuclear taboo remain unanswered. This article seeks to answer a basic question: How durable is the taboo? We develop different predictions about norm durability depending on whether the taboo is based primarily on moral logic or strategic logic. We use the comparable case of the norm against strategic bombing in the 20th century to evaluate these hypotheses. The logic and evidence presented in this paper suggest that the norm of nuclear non-use is much more fragile than most analysts understand.     

浅议陆军合成旅装备一体化联合检验

近年来,装备试验深入推进。作为装备试验领域的最高形式,装备一体化联合检验已经成为陆军合成旅装备试验的新趋势和新常态。本文从装备一体化联合检验的概念入手,简要阐述了以作战效能、作战适用性、体系适用性和在役适用性为主的“一能三性”,从装备体系效能的联合检验、装备体系运用的具体检验和陆军合成旅的综合检验三个方面深入理解和认识装备一体化联合检验,提出了立足联合作战、立足贴近实战、紧盯短板弱项、聚焦摸清底数等四个需要重点关注的问题,以为陆军合成旅装备一体化联合检验的深入开展提供理论参考和借鉴。     

The struggle of a Kantian power in a Lockean world – German leadership in security and defence policy

ABSTRACT

German security and defence policy has undergone substantial transformation. This transformation requires an unprecedented level of political leadership, suggesting that Germany needs to solve the dilemma of how to supply leadership to increasingly demanding partners. What are the conditions under which German leadership can unfold in security and defence policy? To what degree do German role-conceptions of international agency and role-expectations of German leadership coincide? What kind of leadership outputs are produced? This study offers a comprehensive analysis of German security and defence policy in terms of supply (role conceptions) and demand (role expectations). We outline three leadership role conceptions present in the German strategic debate, which we then assess in the context of the Wendtian theory of cultures of anarchy. We then analyse Berlin's leadership in terms of outputs via the case study on Anchor Army and the Framework Nations Concept. We conclude that while Germany has tried to match leadership role expectations both rhetorically and in action, Berlin's leadership inputs have so far been insufficient. This has led to an imbalance in terms of role conceptions and expectations hampering effective German leadership in security and defence policy.     

一种基于熵值的装备维修性评价模型

本文提出了一种基于熵值的装备维修性综合评价模型,该模型包括评价指标的熵值度量模型、装备维修信息结构图和行为控制图以及基于熵值的评价指标聚合模型等3个方面.本研究首先在分析装备维修一般过程和维修性评价内容的基础上,构建了定性指标和定量指标相结合的装备维修性评价指标体系,分析了维修任务复杂度、维修保障复杂度和基于熵值的维修...     

灭火救援战术演习有关问题探讨

对灭火战术训练法之一———灭火救援战术演习的含义、特点、地位、作用以及演习的组织方式等方面进行了系统论述,为部队更有效地开展灭火战术演习,提高部队灭火救援作战能力,提供理论指导和借鉴。