美军战略传播中的“叙事”策略

随着互联网技术的飞速发展,信息传播对国家政治、经济、外交和国防带来巨大冲击和影响。美军意识到传播叙事是政府和军队塑造形象、谋划战略、输出文化价值观的重要手段。美国从"重讲故事"的角度出发,将"叙事"包装成对外战略传播的新型方式,从思维认知、情感操控、舆论引导等方面强化对对手的心理威慑和影响,同时以新媒体为媒介扩大叙事传播的影响受众,进而达到物理打击所难以发挥的影响。     

关于在公安现役部队推行全面预算管理的几点思考

对现阶段公安现役部队全面预算管理现状和面临的问题进行了分析,从确定部队战略目标,党委重视和全员参与,构建全面预算管理组织结构及制度体系,全面预算的编制、控制、调整及考评等几个方面提出了有效实施全面预算管理的思路和具体措施。     

精度鉴定与试验决策系统

本文综合运用序贯分析方法和Ｂａｙｅｓ方法,提出用序贯Ｂａｙｅｓ决策进行战略导弹的精度鉴定和试验设计,序贯Ｂａｙｅｓ决策中的损失函数不仅考虑了决策损失,还考虑了试验费用,这样即可将鉴定方法与试验方法结合起来考虑,给出最佳鉴定方案及试验次数。     

一种制取缸内示功图的新方法

本文基于舰艇柴油机的推进工况,研究通过测试一组稳态参数,建立物理和数学模型,获取缸内示功图。分析认为:该方法简单实用、成本低,与实测示功图比较误差小,完全满足使用管理中性能分析、工况评判、故障诊断等方面的需要,是解决舰艇柴油机实测示功图困难的一种新的尝试。     

浅议陆军合成旅装备一体化联合检验

近年来,装备试验深入推进。作为装备试验领域的最高形式,装备一体化联合检验已经成为陆军合成旅装备试验的新趋势和新常态。本文从装备一体化联合检验的概念入手,简要阐述了以作战效能、作战适用性、体系适用性和在役适用性为主的“一能三性”,从装备体系效能的联合检验、装备体系运用的具体检验和陆军合成旅的综合检验三个方面深入理解和认识装备一体化联合检验,提出了立足联合作战、立足贴近实战、紧盯短板弱项、聚焦摸清底数等四个需要重点关注的问题,以为陆军合成旅装备一体化联合检验的深入开展提供理论参考和借鉴。     

灭火救援战术演习有关问题探讨

对灭火战术训练法之一———灭火救援战术演习的含义、特点、地位、作用以及演习的组织方式等方面进行了系统论述,为部队更有效地开展灭火战术演习,提高部队灭火救援作战能力,提供理论指导和借鉴。     

改进型Voronoi图和动态权值A*算法的无人机航迹规划

针对实际作战环境中的不同威胁等级和不同威胁实体的威胁源,提出了改进型的Voronoi图,并建立了基于改进型Voronoi图的航迹规划空间;基于A*算法的估价函数在不同阶段对指标的敏感度不同,在传统的启发式A*搜索算法基础上提出了动态权值A*搜索算法,提高了航迹搜索的效率,实现了航迹搜索过程快速性和准确性的结合。最后通过Matlab仿真计算出由动态权值A*算法得到的最优航迹,并进行了航迹的平滑处理,仿真表明了该方法的可行性。     

EDITOR'S NOTE

This article offers a survey of risks that might arise for strategic stability (defined as a situation with a low probability of major-power war) with the reduction of US and Russian nuclear arsenals to “low numbers” (defined as 1,000 or fewer nuclear weapons on each side). These risks might include US anti-cities targeting strategies that are harmful to the credibility of extended deterrence; renewed European anxiety about a US-Russian condominium; greater vulnerability to Russian noncompliance with agreed obligations; incentives to adopt destabilizing “launch-on-warning” strategies; a potential stimulus to nuclear proliferation; perceptions of a US disengagement from extended deterrence; increased likelihood of non-nuclear arms competitions and conflicts; and controversial pressures on the UK and French nuclear forces. Observers in North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) states who consider such risks significant have cited four possible measures that might help to contain them: sustained basing of US nonstrategic nuclear weapons in Europe; maintaining a balanced US strategic nuclear force posture; high-readiness means to reconstitute US nuclear forces; and enhanced US and allied non-nuclear military capabilities. These concrete measures might complement the consultations with the NATO allies that the United States would in all likelihood seek with respect to such important adjustments in its deterrence and defense posture.     

US Advanced Conventional Systems and Conventional Prompt Global Strike Ambitions:

ABSTRACT

The dangers and risks of employing a Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) capability greatly exceed the benefits. More suitable, if less prompt, alternatives exist to deal with fleeting targets. Even a niche CPGS capability—consisting of approximately twenty systems—carries risks, to say nothing of proposals to develop hundreds or more. Most dangerously, CPGS could stir the pre-emption pot, particularly vis-à-vis states that correctly perceive to be within the gunsights of US CPGS weapons; other states, too, may feel emboldened to emulate this US precedent and undertake their own form of prompt, long-range strike capability. Compressed circumstances surrounding such a scenario could foster unwanted erratic behavior, including the misperception that the threatening missile carries a nuclear weapon. But the true Achilles's heel of the CPGS concept is the unprecedented demands it places on the intelligence community to provide decision makers with “exquisite” intelligence within an hour timeframe. Such compressed conditions leave decision makers with virtually no time to appraise the direct—and potentially unintended—consequences of their actions.     

基于复杂性的战场损伤定位流程评价模型研究

损伤定位流程制定的合理与否是衡量一个评估员水平高低的重要指标之一。对损伤定位流程的评价涉及到所用时间、工具、操作的难度等指标都可以用其复杂性来表示,目前鲜有关于损伤定位流程评价的研究,因此提出战场损伤定位流程的复杂性,并借鉴软件工程领域的程序复杂性量化方法——图熵法对其进行量化。经过数据验证,复杂性与评估时间之间存在较好的拟合关系,并用实例说明了模型的应用效果。