Praying for Rain? Water Scarcity and the Duration and Outcomes of Civil Wars

Recent anecdotal evidence from the civil wars in Somalia and Yemen suggest that water scarcity may shape the dynamics of civil wars. While a considerable body of research has examined the connection between water scarcity (such as low rainfall) and the onset of civil war, very little research has examined how water scarcity may shape the duration and outcomes of civil wars. Looking specifically at rainfall, this paper argues that changes in access to water play a key role in the duration of civil wars. As rainfall declines, there is a reduction in resources available to both the government and the rebel group, leading to a stalemate in fighting. Furthermore, this paper argues that declines in rainfall are felt more acutely by rebel groups who seek to challenge the government through conventional warfare. This paper tests these propositions using hazard models. The results provide robust support for the propositions.     

An air cavity method for increasing the underwater acoustic targets strength of corner reflector

In order to improve the underwater acoustic target strength of corner reflectors, according to the principle of acoustic impedance mismatch of the boundary layer, the method of using air cavity to increase the underwater acoustic target strength of corner reflectors is proposed. The acoustic reflection coefficients of underwater air layer and single layer metal sheet are calculated and compared. The results show that the reflection coefficient of single layer metal sheet is greatly affected by frequency and incidence angle, and the reflection coefficient of air layer in water is large and little affected by frequency and incidence angle. On this basis, a new kind of airfilled cavity corner reflector is designed. The acoustic scattering characteristics of underwater airfilled cavity corner reflector are calculated cumulatively, and the results are compared with the monolayer metal sheet corner reflector. The simulation results show that the acoustic reflection effect of the airfilled cavity corner reflector is better. In order to verify the correctness of the method, the test was carried out in the silencing tank. The experimental results show that the simulation results are in good agreement with the experimental results, and the airfilled cavity can improve on acoustic reflection performance of the underwater corner reflector.     

基于深度神经网络的无线覆盖预测算法*

为保证新一代移动无线网络能够根据实时覆盖情况动态地调节小区天线参数,需要实现高效且准确的无线覆盖预测。传统的求解方法通过精确的场强预测来判断天线参数的优劣,虽然精度很高但需要大量的计算资源,无法满足5G和后5G移动网络通过实时覆盖预测进行射频参数动态调整的实际需求。现采用基于深度神经网络的算法对给定天线参数的覆盖效果进行预测,以取代对目标区域的精确场强预测。数值结果表明,该方法能够在保持计算准确性的同时显著减少计算量,为5G动态网络规划提供基础性参考数据。     

腐蚀损伤下船体总纵极限强度可靠性分析方法探讨

针对腐蚀损伤下船体结构安全性评估问题,基于实船腐蚀勘验数据,引入非概率可靠性评估理论,提出舰艇现时状态下船体结构总纵极限强度非概率可靠性分析方法,建立船体结构非概率可靠性分析模型。对某舰艇船体结构现时状态下的总纵极限强度可靠性及非概率可靠性分析方法在船体结构安全状态评估方面的应用性进行了分析。结果表明:非概率可靠性分析方法克服了过度依赖样本数据的缺陷,较确定性方法更贴近客观实际,在舰艇船体结构技术状态评估方面具有较好的应用前景。     

阿尔特舒尔摩阻因数公式应割爱停用

紊流混合摩擦区是成品油管输的基本流区,其摩阻因数的基准公式为科尔布鲁克公式,国标采用十分近似、容易计算的哈兰德公式。由于历史原因,前苏联学者阿尔特舒尔的紊流混合摩擦因数公式在我国石油储运界一直流行,但该式只适用于管径较小、管内壁较粗糙、雷诺数较低的情况,而科式和哈式没有这种限制,且后者的计算也很简单,故阿式应割爱停用。     

切尔诺贝利核事故救援对我国核电消防部队建设的启示

介绍了切尔诺贝利核事故消防部队救援的基本情况以及经验和教训,并针对我国目前核电消防的现状,结合切尔诺贝利核事故救援的经验和教训,就我国核电消防安全和队伍建设提出了建议和意见。     

双层隧道边墙位置研究

针对地下快速路的特点和重庆市地形特征,分析了在重庆市地下快速路中使用双层隧道的优越性,并根据双层隧道边墙受力不利原则提出了两种双层隧道新型结构方案。利用计算软件对两种新型结构相对于传统结构的稳定性和边墙二次衬砌受力进行了分析比较,得出边墙位于中隔板中部的双层隧道结构更加适用于城市地下快速路。     

监测位移趋势分析确定滑坡稳定状态研究

针对滑坡预报缺少公认的临界速率,同时由于普遍存在的位移突变现象,易于造成大量误报的问题,提出了基于监测位移趋势分析的滑坡预报新思路。通过分析某工程滑坡的位移监测数据,得出了选取关键断面、观测预报点的一般规律。采用FLAC3D计算考虑流变状况下,不同安全系数所对应的滑坡位移趋势曲线,通过对比分析相应关键点监测位移趋势曲线,定量、全过程判定滑坡所处的稳定状态,为工程项目提供决策参考,避免了滑坡进一步发展,验证了滑坡观测预报点选择规律和对比监测、计算位移趋势曲线进行滑坡预报的可行性。     

基于Holtrop公式与遗传算法的船型参数优化

针对方尾水面舰船,采用Holtrop阻力计算公式,以总阻力为目标函数,据遗传算法,对主要的船型参数进行了优化计算,进而得出了在一系列速度下主要船型参数的最优解及相应的由Holtrop公式计算得到的总阻力,并绘制了在各最优解下由Holtrop公式计算的总阻力随速度的变化曲线,结合Holtrop公式相应图谱对所得优化计算结果进行了分析.结果表明,该方法对于水面舰船的主尺度比等船型参数优选具有较强的实用性.     

人员疏散模拟计算方法对比研究

目前我国在安全疏散评价中采用的人员疏散模型和计算方法不尽相同,而对于同一种场景,不同疏散模型和计算方法存在较大差异性。通过同一种疏散场景不同疏散模型和计算结果的对比,验证了三种计算方法以及采用中西方人体参数的差异大小,为选择合理的安全疏散评估方法提供了指导。