云模型及其在指挥控制系统可靠性分析中的应用

根据指挥控制系统的特点及作战应用的具体情况,从指挥控制系统的可靠性出发,提出了适合指控系统可靠性分析的云模型。通过拟定性能评价指标,导出各指标的云模型及其多维加权综合云的重心,应用云重心评价方法进行分析;并通过案例,运用基于PC-L INM AP的云重心评价方法,以影响指挥控制系统可靠性的两个重要性能指标为依据,分析了未来联合作战中指挥控制系统的可靠性,比较贴近作战实际,可信度较高。     

装甲装备维修效益评估初探

装甲装备使用阶段的维修效益评估对于有效管理装备维修活动,提高维修质量,降低维修费用具有很强的现实意义。文章建立了一套装甲装备维修效益评价指标体系,基于多级模糊综合评价法构建了评估模型,并运用该模型对某坦克大修厂某中型坦克的维修效益进行了评估。文章认为多级模糊综合评价法能较好地解决装甲装备维修效益的量化评估问题,在实际工作中可灵活运用该方法,不断提高维修管理水平。     

Optimal pricing and inventory control policy in periodic‐review systems with fixed ordering cost and lost sales

This paper studies a periodic‐review pricing and inventory control problem for a retailer, which faces stochastic price‐sensitive demand, under quite general modeling assumptions. Any unsatisfied demand is lost, and any leftover inventory at the end of the finite selling horizon has a salvage value. The cost component for the retailer includes holding, shortage, and both variable and fixed ordering costs. The retailer's objective is to maximize its discounted expected profit over the selling horizon by dynamically deciding on the optimal pricing and replenishment policy for each period. We show that, under a mild assumption on the additive demand function, at the beginning of each period an (s,S) policy is optimal for replenishment, and the value of the optimal price depends on the inventory level after the replenishment decision has been done. Our numerical study also suggests that for a sufficiently long selling horizon, the optimal policy is almost stationary. Furthermore, the fixed ordering cost (K) plays a significant role in our modeling framework. Specifically, any increase in K results in lower s and higher S. On the other hand, the profit impact of dynamically changing the retail price, contrasted with a single fixed price throughout the selling horizon, also increases with K. We demonstrate that using the optimal policy values from a model with backordering of unmet demands as approximations in our model might result in significant profit penalty. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

电子文稿编辑校对中的误区及对策

编辑人员在编辑校对电子文稿过程中,存在几种误区:关注电子文稿的“显性优势”,忽视“显性差错”;强调校对功能的改变,弱化校对人员职能作用;因电子文稿的便利因素,导致编辑人员责任感淡化等。要规范电子时代编辑校对工作秩序,提高电子文稿的编校质量,就要端正工作作风,强化编校人员职业敏感意识;强化校对时的自觉、自警意识;积极探索电子文稿的出错规律,增强判断识别能力。     

关于建立健全武警学院教学评估长效机制的思考

教学工作评估是对学院各项工作的全面检查,其目的是为促进学院进一步明确办学指导思想,改善办学条件,提高教学质量,推动学院教学管理规范化、科学化和系统化。建立学院教学评估长效机制应重点把握好几个问题、基本思路和基本措施。     

基于模糊综合评判的装备战场损伤等级评定方法

针对装备战场损伤评估问题,应用模糊综合评判的基本原理,建立了装备战场损伤等级评定模型,提出了基于二级模糊综合评判的装备战场损伤等级评定方法。该方法考虑了有关战场损伤的各种因素、因素权重和因素等级权重,结合合理的评价指标处理方法,使计算结果能够全面准确地反映装备战场损伤严重程度,为有效制定装备战场损伤处理方案提供基本依据。     

高空风场条件风速概率分布与正态分布差异分析

在飞行器多学科优化设计中,高空风场是有重要影响的不确定性因素,需要准确获取其统计特性。高空风场条件风速的概率分布是特定的,为了便于将高空风场概率模型用于不确定性设计,减少计算量,提出了高空风场条件风速概率分布与正态分布差异的分析方法,给出了将高空风场条件风速概率分布简化为正态分布的适用条件。数值仿真结果表明:在纬度为24.3°N～42.2°N范围内,不同地区高空风场条件风速概率密度与正态分布概率密度的差异在海拔2～30 km范围内呈喇叭形分布,在海拔15 km附近,高空风场条件风速概率密度与正态分布概率密度最接近,高空风场条件风速的概率分布可近似假设为正态分布。综合以上工作,给出了在飞行器不确定性设计中考虑条件风速不确定性时,生成随机样本方法的选择建议。     

混合电推进能源管理系统模糊逻辑控制

针对混合电推进能源管理方法开展研究,设计了一种基于模糊逻辑控制的混合电推进能源管理系统。通过设置垂直起降飞行器的功率要求、内燃机-发电机输出功率和储能电池荷电状态的模糊隶属度函数,动态最优分配发电机与储能电池的功率输出,从而提升系统的燃油经济性与飞行器的航程。结合模型设置,对100 kg级的垂直起降转平飞的飞行器能源系统变化进行仿真计算,验证了能源控制算法的可行性。结果表明：基于模糊逻辑控制的能源管理方法,在总时长约为1.2 h的飞行过程中,内燃机约有1 h的时间工作在比油耗最低的区域,从而提升了混合电推进系统的能量利用效率。研究为后续混合电推进系统的能源高效控制与管理提供了设计思路和分析方法。     

利用遗传算法和模糊逻辑进行系统可靠性优化分配

提出一种使用遗传算法和模糊逻辑相结合进行系统可靠性优化分配的新方法。该方法使用模糊逻辑对系统研制初期可靠性设计中所存在的不精确限制条件和设计目标进行数学建模 ,然后利用遗传算法对数学模型进行求解。该方法充分利用了模糊逻辑的建模效率和遗传算法的搜索效率 ,大大提高了系统可靠性分配的效率和精度。本文首先以两单元串联系统的可靠度优化为例进行说明 ,然后将算法扩展至多单元系统的可靠度及冗余度优化问题的求解。数值仿真实例显示了算法的性能和可行性。     

Price and capacity decisions of service systems with boundedly rational customers

We consider price and capacity decisions for a profit‐maximizing service provider in a single server queueing system, in which customers are boundedly rational and decide whether to join the service according to a multinomial logit model. We find two potential price‐capacity pair solutions for the first‐order condition of the profit‐maximizing problem. Profit is maximized at the solution with a larger capacity, but minimized at the smaller one. We then consider a dynamically adjusting capacity system to mimic a real‐life situation and find that the maximum can be reached only when the initial service rate is larger than a certain threshold; otherwise, the system capacity and demand shrink to zero. We also find that a higher level of customers’ bounded rationality does not necessarily benefit a firm, nor does it necessarily allow service to be sustained. We extend our analysis to a setting in which customers’ bounded rationality level is related to historical demand and find that such a setting makes service easier to sustain. Finally we find that bounded rationality always harms social welfare.