贯彻强军目标 创设良好思想政治工作环境

强军目标是新时期军队建设的行动纲领。思想政治建设必须围绕强军目标展开。军队思想政治工作受所处环境的影响和制约。贯彻强军目标创设良好的思想政治工作环境,首先要从本单位自身做起,建设净化优美的军营“小环境”,塑造军营环境的“奋斗之关”“陶冶之美”“形象之美”,增强思想政治工作环境的推动力、感染力和约束力。     

舰艇编队协同反导队形配置优化研究

随着舰艇编队网络中心作战模式的产生与发展,其队形配置问题必须重新给予考虑。首先介绍了网络化反导作战系统的远程数据作战能力;其后,从指挥通信、火力掩护和一次耦合杀伤区3个方面给出舰舰间距的约束条件,以远程数据作战条件下编队舰空导弹杀伤区增量最大为优化目标,建立编队舰舰间距优化模型,并在此基础上结合电子干扰的要求,给出了编队队列角的最优范围解算方法;最后,在一定的战场假设下,通过示例的方式对模型的有效性与适应性进行了验证。     

Assessing the value of demand sharing in supply chains

We consider the problem of assessing the value of demand sharing in a multistage supply chain in which the retailer observes stationary autoregressive moving average demand with Gaussian white noise (shocks). Similar to previous research, we assume each supply chain player constructs its best linear forecast of the leadtime demand and uses it to determine the order quantity via a periodic review myopic order‐up‐to policy. We demonstrate how a typical supply chain player can determine the extent of its available information in the presence of demand sharing by studying the properties of the moving average polynomials of adjacent supply chain players. The retailer's demand is driven by the random shocks appearing in the autoregressive moving average representation for its demand. Under the assumptions we will make in this article, to the retailer, knowing the shock information is equivalent to knowing the demand process (assuming that the model parameters are also known). Thus (in the event of sharing) the retailer's demand sequence and shock sequence would contain the same information to the retailer's supplier. We will show that, once we consider the dynamics of demand propagation further up the chain, it may be that a player's demand and shock sequences will contain different levels of information for an upstream player. Hence, we study how a player can determine its available information under demand sharing, and use this information to forecast leadtime demand. We characterize the value of demand sharing for a typical supply chain player. Furthermore, we show conditions under which (i) it is equivalent to no sharing, (ii) it is equivalent to full information shock sharing, and (iii) it is intermediate in value to the two previously described arrangements. Although it follows from existing literature that demand sharing is equivalent to full information shock sharing between a retailer and supplier, we demonstrate and characterize when this result does not generalize to upstream supply chain players. We then show that demand propagates through a supply chain where any player may share nothing, its demand, or its full information shocks (FIS) with an adjacent upstream player as quasi‐ARMA in—quasi‐ARMA out. We also provide a convenient form for the propagation of demand in a supply chain that will lend itself to future research applications. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 515–531, 2014     

基于复杂网络的维修保障力量体系建模方法

针对传统的层级式维修保障力量体系在维修保障过程中暴露出的缺陷,从维修保障力量体系与复杂网络的相似性角度出发,提出用复杂网络理论来研究维修保障力量体系。在对维修保障力量活动过程进行网络化抽象的基础上,建立了维修保障力量网络的拓扑模型,提出了描述维修保障力量网络的特征量。以师维修保障力量体系作为研究对象建立了网络拓扑模型,并对该网络结构作了适当改进。通过一系列对比发现改进后的网络更有利于维修保障,这为维修保障力量体系建设提供了一种新思路和新方法。     

基于AHP的天波雷达装备维修保障能力评估

研究天波雷达装备维修保障能力评估问题。首先,根据天波雷达本身的特点建立了装备维修保障能力评估体系,并给出了各指标的意义及计算方法;其次,采用层次分析法确定评估指标体系中各指标的权重;最后,通过实际数据对目前天波雷达装备维修保障能力进行了计算。通过计算说明了模型能够反映天波雷达装备维修保障能力,计算结果可以为改进装备维修保障系统提供依据,亦可以为装备维修保障指挥提供辅助决策。     

基于CBM的航空装备保障费用动态分析

目前航空装备的保障普遍存在保障费用高和装备可用度低的问题。针对视情维修(Condition-based Maintenance,简称CBM)在新一代航空装备中的应用,以保证航空装备的战备完好性,降低维修保障费用为目标,应用系统动力学原理,建立基于视情维修的航空装备保障费用的动态反馈结构模型。仿真结果表明,将视情维修方法应用到航空装备保障,可有效降低保障费用,提高战备完好率。     

MONEY IN SOUTHERN AFRICAN POLITICS

“Lack of money is the root of all evil”

George Bernard Shaw

In a environment where party financing, private funding in particular, is generally a laissez-faire business, as in most Southern African countries, there is the real risk that interest groups and wealthy individuals will buy influence in political parties and in so doing erode public confidence in the political system. Because they are neither open to public scrutiny nor subject to any legislative restraints, huge private donations can, and often do, come with strings attached. This lack of transparency and openness, as well as mechanisms to prevent it, provides ample ground for influence peddling, where those who pay the piper call the tune. Left unchecked, this party funding scenario will continue to be a serious indictment of the region's democratisation projects, crippling democracy and stunting economic development. This article consid     

基于云理论一二元语义的雷达装备保障指挥效能评估模型

针对云重心和云模型评判方法存在的信息丢失、难于评判以及信息扭曲等问题,从确定权重等级、评价集和评价结果3个方面对模型进行了改进和完善．应用二元语义确定指标权重,避免了评价信息的丢失和扭曲,采用综合云的思想确定评价集,充分利用评价者给出的信息,简化相似云的理论来定量衡量评价结果,从而建立了基于云理论一二元语义的雷达装备保障指挥效能评估模型．     

基于非负矩阵分解的电磁超声系统优化研究

针对孤立脉冲群电磁超声系统信号特征容易被噪声淹没的问题,提出基于改进的非负矩阵分解（INMF）优选特征的支持向量机（SVM）方法．首先,用3种不同的方法提取高维特征;其次,用NMF方法实现特征降维,并保证降维结果的唯一性,避免对特征的直接选择;最后,应用支持向量机方法对降维特征进行分类．对孤立脉冲群电磁超声系统采集的4种信号特征进行提取、选择和分类,实验结果表明：INMF方法能有效提取微弱信号的特征,减少运算量,提高电磁超声系统特征采集的准确率．     

The effect of foreign state support to UNITA during the Angolan War (1975–1991)

ABSTRACT

State support for foreign rebel groups has become more salient, yet it remains unclear how this affects armed conflict. This paper therefore analyses the effect of foreign government assistance and does so in the typical case of the Angolan War (1975–1991). It argues that South African and United States support greatly helped the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) wage a large and sustained insurgency campaign but was ultimately insufficient to overthrow the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) government because it enabled the incumbent government to obtain similar foreign assistance and because the level of aid awarded to UNITA fluctuated strongly, preventing it from engaging in meaningful long-term planning.