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This study provides an explanation of terrorism by examining interactions between the terrorist group with a minority as a potential pool of recruits and the government supported by a majority. A hawkish deterrence policy makes it more risky for terrorists to launch attacks, but heightens the anti‐government feeling of the terrorist group. In addition, the payoff for the government depends not only on the payoff loss associated with the level of terrorism, but also on the political payoff from the action itself of adopting a hawk policy due to its politicians’ vested interests. We first show that whether the deterrence policy should be ‘hawk to ‘dove is closely dependent on the relationships among the risk associated with terrorism, the anti‐government feeling of the terrorist group, and the political payoff for the government. This study then introduces transnational support enhancing the capability of a terrorist group to intensify its activity and shows that the emergence of transnational support may cause the government to reform its deterrence policy from ‘dove’ toward ‘hawk,’ with terrorism intensified in the society. 相似文献
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CHRISTOPHER SPEARIN 《Small Wars & Insurgencies》2013,24(4):541-558
Washington's growing reliance upon international private security companies (PSCs) will lead to these firms becoming prominent vehicles in the prosecution of the counterinsurgency in Iraq. This shift, however, risks labeling PSCs as mercenaries and presents considerable challenges regarding the control of non-state violence. Moreover, tradeoffs exist regarding the different nationalities of PSC personnel. Utilization of personnel from the developed world risks compromising the capabilities of Special Operations Forces. Additionally, shifts in casualty recognition amongst US policymakers and the media suggest that the private option is becoming politically salient and thus less useful. Many developing world states are increasingly concerned about how the global outsourcing of security sector expertise risks their stability and ability to execute coherent policy. Finally, the employment of Iraqis in PSCs sends mixed messages to the Iraqi populace about the need for and the effectiveness of a cohesive and responsible indigenous security sector. Frankly, I'd like to see the government get out of war altogether and leave the whole feud to private industry. [Catch-22 – Major Milo Minderbinder] 相似文献
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分布式仿真技术是解决装备保障方案评价问题的重要手段.由于装备保障方案是由一整套不同层次的综合保障要素方案组成,因此,对于不同层次的装备保障方案其仿真模型分辨率需求往往也不尽相同.为解决装备保障方案多层次建模问题,引入了装备保障仿真实体的概念,从属性、行为、保障关系和交互4方面出发定义了装备保障仿真实体元模型.在此基础上,提出了装备保障仿真聚合实体的概念,研究了实体属性聚合、行为聚合、保障关系聚合和交互聚合的方法,有效解决了装备保障仿真系统中的不同层次模型转化问题.最终以某旅前进保障群实体为例进行说明,并在联合作战装备保障仿真系统中进行了应用,证明了装备保障仿真实体聚合方法的有效性和可行性. 相似文献
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基于支持向量机和遗传算法的末敏弹系统效能参数优化设计 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
末敏弹是一种先进的新型弹药,由于其结构复杂,影响因素多,所以对其进行全面的系统优化设计比较困难。文中探讨了基于支持向量机的末敏弹命中概率预报模型的建模方法,并采用遗传算法对系统效能参数进行了优化,获得了影响系统效能的几个主要因素的合理搭配,为末敏弹的系统效能研究提供了依据。 相似文献
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海上机动目标打击效果评估决策支持系统设计 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
针对海上机动目标打击效果评估的特点,运用遥感技术、人工智能技术和模糊评判的方法探索打击效果评估问题。提出一种基于高分辨率遥感图像的打击效果评估决策支持系统,融合人定性分析和机器定量分析的优点,核心是问题处理系统综合运用处理后的遥感信息和支持系统的模型、知识以及数据来评估打击效果,评估模型为二级综合评判模型。对尚处于理论研究阶段的海上机动目标打击效果评估问题有积极的参考意义。 相似文献
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We consider a manufacturer (i.e., a capacitated supplier) that produces to stock and has two classes of customers. The primary customer places orders at regular intervals of time for a random quantity, while the secondary customers request a single item at random times. At a predetermined time the manufacturer receives advance demand information regarding the order size of the primary customer. If the manufacturer is not able to fill the primary customer's demand, there is a penalty. On the other hand, serving the secondary customers results in additional profit; however, the manufacturer can refuse to serve the secondary customers in order to reserve inventory for the primary customer. We characterize the manufacturer's optimal production and stock reservation policies that maximize the manufacturer's discounted profit and the average profit per unit time. We show that these policies are threshold‐type policies, and these thresholds are monotone with respect to the primary customer's order size. Using a numerical study we provide insights into how the value of information is affected by the relative demand size of the primary and secondary customers. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007 相似文献