排队论在导弹防御体系射击效能中的应用

针对当前空袭手段多样化、综合化和一体化的特点,运用排队论方法,设计了一种基于排队论的射击效能评估模型。该模型综合考虑了各种因素对舰空导弹射击效能的影响,当编队的配置(如防御层数、通道数量)有所变化时,依然可以灵活运用上述模型对编队射击效能做出准确评估。     

网络中心作战体系效能评估方法初探

网络中心作战体系是信息化战争要求下的一个具体作战体系,其效能评估是网络中心战研究领域的重要问题,是解决网络中心作战体系建设中方案论证、性能效能指标、经济因素等诸多问题的有效方法。首先提出了网络中心作战体系效能评估的基本概念;然后阐述了网络中心作战体系效能评估方法问题,分析介绍了几种较为成熟的评估方法的特点、适用性和不足;最后提出一种基于探索性建模与分析方法的网络中心作战体系效能评估框架,作为研究网络中心作战体系效能评估的参考评估框架。     

武器系统效能评估数学模型描述

在武器系统效能评估中,武器系统的战技指标是评估武器系统效能的重要因素.对武器系统的可靠性和维修性进行了研究,并应用于可用性矩阵计算中.利用随机过程理论,建立了武器系统可信性矩阵和武器系统效能能力指数模型,最后建立了武器系统效能评估模型.     

舰艇编队对空防御火力分配评价模型

未来高技术条件下水面舰艇编队防空作战能力是其生存能力的关键因素.对舰艇编队防空来讲,进行硬抗击的武器主要是舰空导弹和舰炮两种,如何合理地利用这些武器,最大地发挥舰艇编队的防空作战能力,成为舰艇对空防御作战研究的一个重要课题.结合舰艇编队对空防御的实际情况,利用模糊数学的方法,建立了舰艇编队对空防御火力分配方案的模糊综合评价模型.     

新型驱护舰编队舰空导弹防御体系射击效能研究

针对新型驱护舰编队舰空导弹防御体系射击效能评估这一难题,对其射击效能准则进行了确立,提出了基于排队论的射击效能评估模型,对体系射击效能进行仿真计算,总结出能对系统射击效能做出准确评估的方法,并利用实例对模型进行了验证。     

舰载防空导弹系统的防御能力评估

反舰导弹是当今舰艇及编队面临的主要威胁。为评估反舰导弹攻防能力,以目前世界上防御能力最强的美国航母战斗群为背景,研究采用分层火力配置的航母舰队防御体系对付反舰导弹的有效性。首先分析反舰导弹飞行高度、雷达散射截面及综合效应对防御系统中雷达探测能力的影响,之后应用简化公式,对各类典型舰载对空防御武器的最大拦截距离、拦截次数和拦截效率进行量化分析,对防御反舰导弹能力做出评估。     

防空导弹的新家族——反精导武器防空导弹

现代精确制导武器对敏感点目标的威胁,主要表现在高的击毁概率和多发协同攻击上,保卫点目标的反精确制导武器防空导弹必须具有多目标通道和高速率全向射击能力;必须具有高的可靠性和对精确制导武器的击爆能力,将构成防空导弹系列中的一个新家族。     

新型多目标遗传算法及其在导弹射击效能优化中的应用

多目标规划是一类重要的优化模型,有着广泛的实际应用,但其求解至今仍是运筹学的一个难点.针对一般约束多目标优化问题,在设计了新的适应度函数和选择算子的基础上,提出一种新型多目标遗传算法.将其应用于导弹对集群目标射击效能优化问题,验证了算法的有效性.     

When Do Imposed Economic Sanctions Work? A Critical Review of the Sanctions Effectiveness Literature

ABSTRACT

There is growing policy consensus in Washington and other Western capitals that economic sanctions are powerful tools to cope with major foreign policy crises. Are sanctions, particularly targeted sanctions, really the potent instruments optimists suggest? Under what circumstances do punitive economic measures induce policy change in sanctioned countries? To probe these queries, in this article I outline the conditions that have been identified as more likely to lead to successful sanctions outcomes in the literature. I also discuss four major shortcomings of existing scholarship. First, the sender-biased interpretation of sanctions effectiveness renders the treatment of the ‘ineffective’ cases with negative outcomes the same as those cases that induce no discernable change in target behavior. Second, the prevalent use of static data from existing sanctions databases reduces the ability of researchers to study various time-specific factors affecting the probability of sanctions success. Third, the dominant state-centric bargaining model in the literature offers limited insight into contemporary coercive measures directed at non-state actors. Fourth, the study of sanctions in isolation of other instruments that frequently accompany them, such as incentives and diplomatic pressure, leads to a partial understanding of the specific role sanctions play in shaping the outcome of key foreign policy initiatives.     

The long and winding road … to success? Unit peace operation effectiveness and its effect on mission success

Why does peacekeeping sometimes fail? How can effective peacekeepers increase the likelihood of success of a mission? The two main flaws in the current evaluations of peace operations are that they mainly rely on already concluded missions and that they make use of indicators that do not reveal micro-level dynamics. This article introduces an analytical framework relating the effectiveness of soldiers to their actual impact in their area of operation in a peace operation. The framework is called “unit peace operation effectiveness” (UPOE). Focusing on soldiers in peace operations, this article shows that: different units behave differently; emphasize different aspects of the mandate; and are effective in different ways. Ultimately, this has an actual impact on the end-state of the mission. It relies on and adapts classic security studies works to theoretically enrich the peacekeeping literature. The model is tested in an illustrative case study based on ethnographic work on French and Italian units in Afghanistan between 2008 and 2010.