止脱弹簧的蠕变行为与贮存寿命预测

根据止脱弹簧的受力模式和失效机理,设计了止脱弹簧的蠕变老化试验装置,对止脱弹簧进行了蠕变加速老化试验,利用图像测量技术研究了载荷和温度对止脱弹簧自由端蠕变行为的影响规律。进一步,基于Arrhenius方程建立了止脱弹簧在力-热联合载荷下的蠕变动力学方程,预测了止脱弹簧的使用寿命。研究表明:止脱弹簧的蠕变位移是一个随时间变化的单调非减函数;环境温度和载荷水平的提高都会加速止脱弹簧的蠕变。所提方法和相关结论可为蠕变型止脱弹簧的设计和寿命预测提供参考。     

舰艇多功能指控平台硬件可靠性研究与分析

海军舰艇多功能指挥控制平台系统是提高舰艇管理水平和工作效率的硬件基础,提高平台可靠性是保证舰艇发挥正常性能的关键问题。在假定系统组件可靠性为某一定值的前提下,建立数学模型研究分析舰艇多功能指控平台可靠性。重构理论的计算结果表明,采用重构方法可提高平台可靠性,增强舰艇的抗毁性,保证舰艇的战斗功能得到最大程度的发挥。     

基于比例危险模型的产品竞争失效分析

突发型失效与退化型失效共存的竞争失效问题在实践中大量存在,一般情况下突发失效是受退化量大小影响的。文中利用比例危险模型分析了突发失效与退化量的关系,给出了竞争失效的一般模型及模型的参数估计方法,最后利用所给模型对强激光装置所用的金属化膜脉冲电容器进行了可靠性分析。     

Structured maintenance policies on interior sample paths

We examine the problem of adaptively scheduling perfect observations and preventive replacements for a multi‐state, Markovian deterioration system with silent failures such that total expected discounted cost is minimized. We model this problem as a partially observed Markov decision process and show that the structural properties of the optimal policy hold for certain non‐extreme sample paths. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

基于贝叶斯方法的指数寿命型产品可靠度评估方法

以经典法为推理基础,利用无验前信息时验前分布密度的假设方式及共轭分布函数的传递性,推导出指数寿命型产品在不同试验方案下可靠度R的多层贝叶斯评估方法。使得在利用贝叶斯方法对指数寿命型产品进行评估时,更具科学性和合理性。     

Shock model in Markovian environment

A Markov modulated shock models is studied in this paper. In this model, both the interarrival time and the magnitude of the shock are determined by a Markov process. The system fails whenever a shock magnitude exceeds a pre‐specified level η. Nonexponential bounds of the reliability are given when the interarrival time has heavy‐tailed distribution. The exponential decay of the reliability function and the asymptotic failure rate are also considered for the light‐tailed case. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

Properties of the geometric and related processes

Some properties of the geometric process are studied along with those of a related process which we propose to call the α‐series process. It is shown that the expected number of counts at an arbitrary time does not exist for the decreasing geometric process. The decreasing version of the α‐series process does have a finite expected number of counts, under certain conditions. This process also has the same advantages of tractability as the geometric process; it exhibits some properties which may make it a useful complement to the increasing geometric process. In addition, it may be fit to observed data as easily as the geometric process. Applications in reliability and stochastic scheduling are considered in order to demonstrate the versatility of the alternative model. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

残差GM（1，1）模型在恒加试验中的应用

介绍了目前恒加试验中,正常应力水平下特征寿命点估计的数据统计分析方法及其不足。针对恒加试验的特点和所需解决的问题,基于灰色预测理论的残差GM(1,1)模型,给出了一种新的求解方法。最后分别运用三种不同的方法对给出的应用实例进行正常应力水平下特征寿命值的求解,证明了本文所给出的方法确实可行。     

基于全寿命周期费用分析的可重复使用运载器级数选择

建立了可重复使用运载器全寿命周期费用模型 ,并利用该费用模型分析了不同级数的可重复使用运载器方案的全寿命周期费用 ,对全寿命周期费用的各部分组成比例及其随级数的变化规律进行了分析。研究结果表明两级入轨的可重复使用运载器方案全寿命周期费用最低 ,是基于目前技术水平的一种较优的可重复使用运载器级数选择方案     

布尔函数不交化的立方体算法

布尔函数的不交化是进行系统可靠度计算中的重要步骤。本文提出了一种进行布尔函数不交化的立方体算法。基于布尔函数的立方体表示法及不交代数,文中定义了立方体的有关运算法则,建立了立方体矩阵不交化算法,并用算例进行了说明。本算法的实现效率高,操作简便。