舰空导弹武器系统作战效能评估综述

在舰空导弹武器系统作战效能评估研究现状基础上,分析武器系统作战效能评估的关键研究方向,如作战效能评估方法及模型、作战指挥效能评估、武器系统使用可用性评估、人机系统可靠性评估、武器系统生存能力评估、任务完成程度评估、武器系统战场抢修研究等,展望了该研究领域的发展动向。     

增强公安边防部队基层思想政治教育实效性的思考

为了贯彻和落实《中国人民解放军政治工作条例》和《中国人民解放军思想政治教育大纲》,进一步探索坚持用科学理论指导思想政治教育工作、树立思想政治教育的科学理念、充实和丰富思想政治教育的内容、创新思想政治教育的形式方法,对于增强公安边防部队基层思想政治教育的实效性具有重要意义。     

日语教学中的听力教学法

听力课在外语教学中占有主要地位。一直以来,外语教学遵循的＂听说读写译＂规律,更是将听力放在首位,这足以说明听力对外语学习者的重要性。现代语言教育理论高度重视听在语言学习和语言使用中的作用,听力教学受忽视和缺乏科学性的状况正在改变。结合多年教学实践,对如何提高听力教学效果,使学生在短期内提高听力能力做了初步的探讨。     

舰艇通信兵训练效果评估研究

通信兵训练效果的评估结果可以为实际作战能力的提升提供考评的客观依据,有利于训练方法的改进。建立了舰载通信系统作战效能评估指标体系,提出了基于舰载通信系统作战效能的通信兵训练效果评估方法,利用训练前后系统作战效能的提高量化值反映训练效果。以短波通信分系统为例进行仿真,验证了该方法的有效性。对指导通信兵的日常训练、提高其训练效果具有重要意义。     

一种反舰导弹射击效率的评定模型

根据舰载防空系统拦截反舰导弹的过程,建立了基于数学期望的反舰导弹突破多层拦截的效率模型,并在此基础上仿真了不同反舰导弹齐射数量的射击效率,得到了对具有较强反导能力的舰艇实施小批量反舰导弹齐射的效率和点射的效率同样低的结论。     

Pakistan’s nuclear future: continued dependence on asymmetric escalation

ABSTRACT

In 2019, the geostrategic landscape of South Asia significantly changed. A crisis between India and Pakistan involved air strikes across international boundaries for the first time since the 1971 war. Pakistan came close to economic collapse, while India re-elected hawkish Narendra Modi as prime minister in a landslide. These developments, alongside the United States’ efforts to strike a deal to leave Afghanistan and rapidly improving US-India relations, portend new challenges for Pakistan’s security managers—challenges that nuclear weapons are ill-suited to address. Despite the shifting security and political situation in the region, however, Pakistan’s nuclear posture and doctrine seem unlikely to change. This article explores the roots of Pakistan’s reliance on the traditional predictions of the nuclear revolution, most notably the notion that nuclear-armed states will not go to war with one another, and argues that this reliance on nuclear deterrence is a response both to Pakistan’s security environment and to serious constraints on moving away from nuclear weapons toward an improved conventional force posture. Pakistan’s central problems remain the same as when it first contemplated nuclear weapons: the threat from India, the absence of true allies, a weak state and a weaker economy, and few friends in the international system. While 2019 may have been a turning point for other states in the region, Pakistan is likely to stay the course.