坦克兵力行为智能体模型研究

为了有效模拟兵力物理行为和智能行为的不同特性,提出了一个复合结构坦克兵力智能体模型,该模型综合了反应式行为和慎思行为两方面的优点。采用层次化组合方法建立了基于行为模式的兵力物理行为模型,使兵力智能体能对动态战场环境作出灵活的反应。结合兵力不同类型任务的分析,设计了基于规划的兵力智能行为模拟方法,使兵力智能体能按照战术原则进行作战任务规划。     

带时间窗的相控阵雷达实时任务调度方法

为了解决传统相控阵雷达任务调度中采用基于工作方式优先级的方法而存在忽略任务时间紧迫性和重要性的问题,提出了一种基于任务自身工作方式优先级、截止期和空闲时间3个特征参数的相控阵雷达任务调度方法,通过调整参数的权重来适应调度器不同的负载情况,并采用时间窗处理发生冲突的任务请求,确保更多的高优先级任务在调度间隔内被调度。仿真结果表明,所提出的方法能够有效提高任务的调度成功率,明显改善调度器性能。     

加权随机模拟的时变可靠性分析方法

针对结构时变可靠性的随机模拟分析方法计算代价大的问题,在极值方法的基础上提出基于加权随机模拟的时变可靠性分析策略.时变可靠性分析需要计算在不同时间处的失效概率,通常需要进行多次可靠性分析,计算代价巨大.所提方法通过对常规静态可靠性的随机模拟方法进行改进拓展,运用加权策略分别发展了加权蒙特卡洛法和加权重要抽样法,使之能够...     

Asymptotic properties of imperfect repair models and estimation of repair efficiency

The aim of this articles is to study the asymptotic behavior of two imperfect repair models, called Arithmetic Reduction of Intensity and Arithmetic Reduction of Age models. These models have been proposed by Doyen and Gaudoin (Reliab Eng Syst Safe 84 (2004) 45–56) and include many usual virtual age models. First, it is proved that the failure intensity of these models is asymptotically almost surely equivalent to a deterministic increasing function with a cumulative error proportional to a logarithm. Second, the almost sure convergence and asymptotic normality of several estimators of repair efficiency are derived, when the wear‐out process without repair is known. Finally, the coverage rate of the asymptotic confidence intervals issued from those estimators is empirically studied. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Estimating component characteristics from system failure‐time data

Suppose that failure times are available from a random sample of N systems of a given, fixed design with components which have i.i.d. lifetimes distributed according to a common distribution F. The inverse problem of estimating F from data on observed system lifetimes is considered. Using the known relationship between the system and component lifetime distributions via signature and domination theory, the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator _N(t) of the component survival function (t) is identified and shown to be accessible numerically in any application of interest. The asymptotic distribution of _N(t) is also identified, facilitating the construction of approximate confidence intervals for (t) for N sufficiently large. Simulation results for samples of size N = 50 and N = 100 for a collection of five parametric lifetime models demonstrate the utility of the recommended estimator. Possible extensions beyond the i.i.d. framework are discussed in the concluding section. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Some elementary ideas concerning the complexity of system structure

A system of iid Bernoulli components is the starting point in the statistical theory of reliability. This simplification allows for the development of a rich, though elementary, theory for the structure of the system. Two representations play a prominent role in the study of structural reliability. One is the minimal path set representation and the other is the signature representation. By combining the two representations with the Gibbs measure for the state of components, one obtains terms that can be interpreted as the complexity of the system structure. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

信息时代大学英语教学模式研究

步入信息时代,多媒体网络化英语教学作为一种能拓展学习时空的教育形式越来越受到人们的普遍关注。本文根据任务教学法和建构主义学习理论探讨了基于计算机和课堂的大学英语教学模式,提出了重视网络学习能力的培训,加强个性化自主学习、协作学习和监控学习过程等方面的构想。     

大学英语听说能力培养及策略

大学英语听说课是提高学生英语综合技能的训练课。听说教学,要坚持以学生为主体的教学观,从分析和解决问题入手,运用任务型教学和合作学习等模式,实施多种教学策略,帮助学生打好语言基本功,提高文化素养,全面培养学生的英语交际能力。     

A new importance sampling Monte Carlo method for a flow network reliability problem

The exact evaluation of the probability that the maximum st‐flow is greater than or equal to a fixed demand in a stochastic flow network is an NP‐hard problem. This limitation leads one to consider Monte Carlo alternatives. In this paper, we propose a new importance sampling Monte Carlo method. It is based on a recursive use of the state space decomposition methodology of Doulliez and Jamoulle during the simulation process. We show theoretically that the resulting estimator belongs to the variance‐reduction family and we give an upper bound on its variance. As shown by experimental tests, the new sampling principle offers, in many cases, substantial speedups with respect to a previous importance sampling based on the same decomposition procedure and its best performances are obtained when highly reliable networks are analyzed. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 204–228, 2002; DOI 10.1002/nav.10004     

舰船主动力装置系统可靠性的模糊预计

利用模糊数学理论中的综合评判方法,综合考虑多方面的模糊因素,借助于已知单元的可靠性预计舰船主动力装置系统中其它单元的可靠性,进而预计系统的可靠性．