综合保障理论之海军航空装备保障发展

现役的航空装备大部分以可靠性为中心来开展设计和维修保障工作,普遍存在装备可用性低、装备预防性维修周期不合理、装备保障成本高等问题,影响了装备保障效能的提升。针对该问题,论文梳理了综合保障理论产生和发展的意义,分析了当前海军航空装备综合保障的现状,针对性提出了几点发展建议和措施,对于开展综合保障工作有积极的推动意义,对现役装备的预防性维修周期规划、可靠性增长、可用性提高、降低保障成本有重要意义。     

多专业批量维修任务调度方法研究

通过对不同专业设置方式下的维修任务调度问题进行分析,以最小化批量维修任务的维修时间为目标,将考虑专业维修顺序的批量维修任务调度问题分成两步进行求解,首先,建立了批量维修任务在专业领域内的调度及优化模型;其次,提出了基于NEH的批量维修任务排序方法．最后,通过实例对模型和方法的正确性和可行性进行了说明和验证,实例结果表明,该方法更贴近于实际,实现了快速、有效地解决维修任务调度问题,     

多源验前信息下基于证据理论的ML-Ⅱ融合方法

在复杂新型产品的可靠性评估中,试验的样本量通常较小,而Bayes方法在小样本统计推断中比经典统计方法更为适用.针对可靠性工程中遇到的验前信息的多源性问题,给出了一种基于证据理论的ML-Ⅱ融合方法.在融合过程中考虑了信息源的可信性,减小了可信度低的信息源对评估结果的影响.以电子产品为例,算例实验表明了该方法在有“干扰信息源”存在的情况下的评估结果的有效性和合理性.     

浅谈机载火控雷达的可靠性监控

机载火控雷达是载机实施火力攻击的眼睛和向导,它的可靠性的高低,决定着该飞机的战斗能力,对取得空战的胜利至关重要。要提高产品的可靠性,必须从方案的论证开始,到设计、试制、批生产,乃至装备使用的整个过程,实施全面的可靠性监控。     

Reliability inference for field conditions from accelerated degradation testing

Accelerated degradation testing (ADT) is usually conducted under deterministic stresses such as constant‐stress, step‐stress, and cyclic‐stress. Based on ADT data, an ADT model is developed to predict reliability under normal (field) operating conditions. In engineering applications, the “standard” approach for reliability prediction assumes that the normal operating conditions are deterministic or simply uses the mean values of the stresses while ignoring their variability. Such an approach may lead to significant prediction errors. In this paper, we extend an ADT model obtained from constant‐stress ADT experiments to predict field reliability by considering the stress variations. A case study is provided to demonstrate the proposed statistical inference procedure. The accuracy of the procedure is verified by simulation using various distributions of field stresses. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006.     

轻武器寿命可靠性模型研究

为轻武器寿命可靠性评定提供理论依据,运用经典的可靠性理论,将轻武器装备寿命试验归结为可修复系统的有替换定时截尾试验,通过分析某型机枪的寿命试验数据,对母体寿命可能的分布类型作出假设,选择χ2检验法对假设进行拟合优度检验,利用最小二乘法得出对应分布的线性相关系数,通过比较确定母体分布类型,建立了该型机枪寿命的可靠性数学模型,对同类轻武器装备的可靠性指标评定提供了一定的参考。     

装甲火控可靠性建模

装甲武器是陆军及其两栖机械化部队实施地面突击的主要兵器,也是海军陆战部队实施抢滩登陆、岛屿攻防的主要兵器。装甲火控是装甲武器的重要组成部分,其可靠性直接影响装甲武器的打击效能。两栖装甲武器肩负海上、陆上的作战使命,使用环境更加恶劣,可靠性问题更加突出。描述了装甲火控的一般组成、功能及工作方式,基于两栖装甲武器的使用特点,分析了装甲火控基本任务、工作方式和作战环境的关系,建立了不同任务剖面的可靠性模型,为装甲火控可靠性设计、分析提供了一种参考。     

热力设备可靠性分析的问题与对策

以热力设备为研究对象 ,从可靠性分析特点出发 ,对应用故障统计方法所遇到的典型问题作了探讨 ,就分析方法、建模技术等方面论述了作者的观点     

气体灭火系统联动可靠性探讨

气体灭火系统用在特殊、重要的场所,其联动控制可靠性是成功灭火的关键.但由于设计单位、建设单位重视不够,影响了联动可靠性.为此针对气体灭火系统联动控制模式规范设计,严把施工质量关,搞好配套设备的控制,以确保系统联动控制可靠性.     

Adaptive importance sampling for extreme quantile estimation with stochastic black box computer models

Quantile is an important quantity in reliability analysis, as it is related to the resistance level for defining failure events. This study develops a computationally efficient sampling method for estimating extreme quantiles using stochastic black box computer models. Importance sampling has been widely employed as a powerful variance reduction technique to reduce estimation uncertainty and improve computational efficiency in many reliability studies. However, when applied to quantile estimation, importance sampling faces challenges, because a good choice of the importance sampling density relies on information about the unknown quantile. We propose an adaptive method that refines the importance sampling density parameter toward the unknown target quantile value along the iterations. The proposed adaptive scheme allows us to use the simulation outcomes obtained in previous iterations for steering the simulation process to focus on important input areas. We prove some convergence properties of the proposed method and show that our approach can achieve variance reduction over crude Monte Carlo sampling. We demonstrate its estimation efficiency through numerical examples and wind turbine case study.