Can Smart Defense work? A suggested approach to increasing risk- and burden-sharing within NATO

“Smart Defense” is NATO's new approach to risk- and burden-sharing, which has been a chronic problem within the alliance since the 1950s. Numerous solutions have been proposed, but initiatives resulting in more equitable burden-sharing have never been fully implemented. There are two driving forces influencing a county's willingness to support such initiatives – the economic theory of alliances and the risks posed by the implementation of capability sharing. The authors examine each of these and propose that rather than aiming for group consensus on the production of capabilities, NATO should focus on interoperability through support functions. This approach provides the most likely solution for connecting the forces, doctrine, procedures, standards and other factors of joint capability production such that country leaders find the risks of doing so to be politically and militarily acceptable.     

An enterprise portfolio approach for defence capability planning

Capability-based planning (CBP) is considered by many defence organisations to be the best practice for enterprise-level planning, analysis and management. This approach, loosely based around investment portfolio theory, is premised on balancing the cost, benefit and risk of capability options across the defence enterprise. However a number of authors have recently noted limitations of its current applications. The authors propose a more general, insurance-based approach, which can support the evolutionary improvement of the current CBP approach. This approach is implemented as hedging-based planning and aims to better reflect the enterprise nature of defence organisations, capturing both force structure and force generation aspects of military systems.     

试论信息技术在院校实战化训练中的应用

依托信息技术开展实战化训练,培养能打胜仗的优秀人才,是实现我军院校转型的一项重要任务。文章分析了信息技术在院校实战化训练中的应用思路,提出了信息技术在实战化训练中的应用模式,并从教学条件、教员队伍和运行机制方面提出了对策思考。     

信息技术对军队政治工作主体的新挑战

信息技术的迅猛发展给军队政治工作带来了机遇,同时也提出了一系列新挑战。本文以军队政治工作主体为视角,深入分析了信息技术对军队政治工作主体的认知思维、工作方式和信息素质等三个方面带来的新挑战,提出了相应的对策,指出了军队政治工作主体需要改进的方向。     

基于FMECA的信息系统软件失效安全风险评估与预测

随着大量软件产品应用于信息系统,不可避免地增大了软件失效对系统安全的影响概率。本文以某信息系统文电收发的处理过程为例,引入FMECA法,对其文电收发处理过程中由软件造成的风险进行分析,同时分析了引起风险常见的失效模式,并引入Markov模型对软件失效造成系统严重危害的风险进行预测,通过Markov模型与FMECA法结合能够迅速定位软件失效的原因,减少因软件失效造成的系统损失。     

潜艇水下低速航行时的安全操纵控制技术

针对潜艇水下低速航行时的操艇安全问题,在对潜艇水下低速航行工况的概念和使用时机进行分析的基础上,根据艇体和首、尾水平舵的水动力特性,结合实艇使用经验,研究并总结出潜艇水下低速航行时的安全操纵控制技术。这些技术对保障潜艇在水下低速航行时的操艇安全具有实际指导意义。     

“What is dear to you?” Survey of beliefs regarding protection of critical infrastructure against terrorism

Up to the present, there is only very little research on how the population perceives terrorism and its threats, even though support from the population is crucial for effective counterterrorism. By eliciting beliefs and subjecting them to content analyses, six factors were found that determine the protection worthiness of a target in the people's view: the potential damage to “people,” “symbolism,” “economy,” “politics,” “nature,” and “image/publicity.” These empirically found factors are in line with factors specified by terrorist target selection models. They differ in the strength of their cognitive representation among participants and, thus, their subjective importance to the people. The first three factors are shared among all participants, whereas the latter ones could only be found in a part of the participant sample. People's judgments of the targets' protection worthiness differ substantially from their judgments of the targets' attractiveness to terrorists, even though the same factors seem to be involved. This study offers an insight into the people's mental model about protection worthiness of targets. Together with classical risk analysis and knowledge about terrorists, these results can form a basis for setting up a holistic scheme for critical infrastructure protection.     

FRC/钢嵌入式T型接头疲劳试验及可靠性分析

为了研究FRC/钢嵌入式T型连接接头疲劳特性,采用真空成型工艺(VARTM)及缝合技术制作T型连接接头,利用Letry疲劳试验机对接头开展拉-拉疲劳试验。根据疲劳试验结果,研究了T型接头在拉-拉疲劳载荷作用下初始损伤特性及损伤演变规律;基于两参数Weibull分布模型,开展T型连接接头疲劳可靠性分析,拟合得到接头在不同应力水平下的疲劳寿命分布规律,给出接头在不同应力水平下疲劳可靠度函数,以及接头在指定可靠度下应力/寿命双对数曲线关系式(R-lnS-lnN曲线)。结果表明,ln ln[1/R(N)]与lnN呈现良好的线性关系,T型接头疲劳寿命服从Weibull分布;疲劳寿命可靠度双对数方程建立了可靠度、疲劳寿命以及疲劳应力的关系,可指导接头疲劳可靠性设计和工程应用。     

战时合同商保障风险评估研究

合同商保障风险的分析和评估,对于成功实施合同商保障具有非常重要的意义。首先对战时合同商保障过程中的可能遇到的风险问题进行了分析,建立战时合同商保障的风险评估模型,然后利用层次分析法得出模型中所需要的参数,最后进行了案例分析。     

基于D-S证据理论的技术成熟度评估关键技术识别方法研究

针对技术成熟度评估中识别关键技术这一多属性群决策问题,提出了采用证据理论的一种新方法,解决了由于专家意见具有发散性和冲突性而导致的意见难以合成的问题．通过引入和分析不确定度的概念和含义,给出新的不确定度的计算方法,有效地解决了评价中的证据冲突问题．最后通过一个算例给出了应用的步骤和方法．