基于最大后验风险的多层Bayes方法

为了对指数型产品进行可靠性鉴定,首先给出了失效率的多层先验分布,然后从最大后验风险的角度,运用Bayes方法,制定出可靠性鉴定试验方案.按照此鉴定试验方案,缩短了试验时间,从而降低了鉴定试验所需的费用.     

谈MIS系统的体系结构

体系结构是计算机系统及其组件的物理构造或设计方案 ,文章探讨了 3种典型的体系结构在MIS系统中的应用。     

0.13 μm标准CMOS工艺的高可靠流水线模数转换器

针对航空航天电子系统对高性能模数转换器的需求,采用0. 13μm标准互补金属氧化物半导体工艺,设计可以在极端温度和空间辐射环境中稳定可靠工作的12位分辨率、50 MS/s采样率的流水线模数转换器。通过采用无采样保持电路以及抗辐射电路和版图加固等技术,在减小功耗的同时有效地削弱总剂量辐射效应的影响。测试结果表明:在-55～125℃温度范围内以及150 krad(Si)的总剂量辐照条件下,得到大于64 dB的信噪比、大于73. 5 dB的无杂散动态范围和最大0. 22 dB的微分非线性。     

Drone usage by militant groups: exploring variation in adoption

Judging by recent media reporting and pronouncements by senior US military and security officials, the use of drones by militant groups is both reshaping conflict between armed non-state actors and state parties and now presents a grave and direct threat to nations in the West and elsewhere. But does this threat warrant the attention it is currently receiving? To answer this question, this article surveys how various militant groups have used drones both tactically on the battlefield and for wider strategic purposes. Closely examining how drones have been employed and by whom provides a basis for understanding variation in adoption. The article shows how drone usage or non-usage is highly contingent on the setting of the conflict, the aims of different groups, and the capacity of groups to adopt the technology. Though advances in drone technology could make the use-case more appealing for militant groups, drones will be subject to the same back-and-forth, techno-tactical adaptation dynamic between adversaries that have accompanied prior military innovations.     

Prospect theory and foreign policy decision-making: Underexposed issues,advancements, and ways forward

How much mileage can we get out of prospect theory to explain foreign policy decision-making? To answer this question, we first argue that risk as outcome uncertainty is the appropriate definition in prospect-theoretical applications. Then, we indicate that probability weighting—a crucial component of prospect theory—is typically ignored in such applications. We argue why this is problematic and suggest how to move forward. Next, we discuss how to establish the reference point in the face of outcomes in multiple dimensions, as is typically the case in foreign policy decision-making. Finally, we discuss what we have learnt regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions and the differences across individuals in the theory’s applicability. Overall, our contribution lies in identifying several underexposed or neglected issues (e.g., the definition of risk and probability weighting), in examining the advancements regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions, and in discussing avenues for further research.     

The continuing resonance of the war as risk management perspective for understanding military interventions

In the late 1990s and 2000s, a slew of books and journal articles proposed that a nexus between risk management and warfare was emerging. This article argues that risk management ideas continue to shape recent campaigns against Libya, Islamic State, Syria, and the war on terror from Niger, Yemen to Somalia. It uses existing literature on risk and warfare to examine four key aspects of contemporary interventions. First, the article evaluates the overall strategic context as security concerns shift from terrorism toward renewed great power competition. Second, it re-assesses the risk calculus for military action through the language and grammar of risk invoked by politicians. Third and fourth, it addresses the continuing reliance on air power and the managerial ethos of military operations as important features of war as risk management.     

建立军民融合创新体系的重大意义

加快形成军民融合创新体系,是习主席在十二届全国人大五次会议解放军代表团全体会议上提出的重大战略思想。建立军民融合创新体系,是顺应军民科技发展新形势的必然抉择,是夯实科技兴军物质基础的内在要求、提升国家创新能力的重大举措、推动创新文化形成的有效途径,也是推进供给侧结构性改革的现实需求。加快形成军民融合创新体系,反映了现代战斗力和生产力生成的规律,体现了统筹国家安全和发展全局的内在要求,为深入实施军民融合发展战略、开创强军兴国新局面指明了方向,具有重大意义。     

油库三维电子沙盘的设计与实现

针对各类油库传统实物沙盘存在的诸多问题,提出以传统沙盘堆制理论为依据,以后台数据库为基础,结合现代先进的虚拟现实技术来研制油库三维电子沙盘。在介绍了系统功能需求的基础上,阐述了系统开发环境和系统结构,详细分析了系统实现的步骤:素材收集和处理、三维建模及优化处理、三维模型集成显示与碰撞检测、后台数据库连接设计,并指出了系统的发展建议。     

管道在线检测技术及检测机器人研究

概述了管道检测技术发展现状,介绍了最新检测技术的原理,分析了管道内检测机器人的技术要点,概括介绍了课题组在差压式管内检测机器人周围流场建模与仿真、腐蚀环境下管道钢裂纹群演化的混沌动力学、差压式管内检测机器人的通过性能、管内检测机器人运行速度和姿态分析及运动状态控制、管内检测机器人小型化、小型化管内检测机器人检测精度、小型化管内检测机器人定位精度及管道剩余寿命的预测方法等方面的研究进展,为今后的研究打下了坚实的基础。     

加强装备竞争性采购廉政风险防控的思考

装备竞争性采购是统筹经济发展和国防建设的重要抓手,加强风险管理是提升装备竞争性采购总体效益的重要保障.从当前纪检态势看,装备竞争性采购是廉政风险集中的重点领域.本文系统梳理了思想道德、制度机制、岗位职责及社会环境等装备竞争性采购过程中可能遇到的廉政风险类型,阐述了竞争性采购项目提出环节、竞争性采购信息发布环节、候选装备...