舰载试验指挥控制系统研究与实践

针对靶场海上试验发展的综合需求,对舰载试验指挥控制系统发展的必要性及现状进行了分析,重点从与靶场其它系统的接口关系、系统功能、体系结构及软件设计几方面完成了系统总体设计研究,最后阐述了系统实现过程的关键技术。实践表明,该系统的应用大大提高了海上试验指挥水平。     

Partial equilibrium in risk‐based production decisions

Characteristically, a small subset of operational problems admit risk neutrality when contingent claims methodology were used in their analysis. That is, for the majority of manufacturing and production problems, operating cash flows are not directly linked to prices of traded assets. However, to the extent that correlations can be estimated, the methodology's applicability to a broader set of operational problems is supported. Our article addresses this issue with the objective of extending the use of contingent claims techniques to a larger set of operational problems. In broad terms, this objective entails a partial equilibrium approach to the problem of valuing uncertain cash flows. To this end, we assume risk aversion and cast our approach within Merton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model. In this context, we formulate a “generic” production valuation model that is framed as an exercise in stochastic optimal control. The model is versatile in its characterization and can easily be adapted to accommodate a wide‐ranging set of risk‐based operational problems where the underlying sources of uncertainty are not traded. To obtain results, the model is recast as a stochastic dynamic program to be solved numerically. The article addresses a number of fundamental issues in the analysis risk based decision problems in operations. First, in the approach provided, decisions are analyzed under a properly defined risk structure. Second, the process of analysis leads to suitably adjusted probability distributions through which, appropriately discounted expectations are derived. Third, through consolidating existing concepts into a standard and adaptable framework, we extend the applicability of contingent claims methodology to a broader set of operational problems. The approach is advantageous as it obviates the need for exogenously specifying utility functions or discount rates.© 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

面向突防效能的超声速巡航导弹总体设计技术初步研究

防御系统技术的不断发展,对超声速巡航导弹设计提出了新的需求.针对以“性能”为核心的设计不能满足超声速巡航导弹设计新需求的问题,初步探讨了面向突防效能的超声速巡航导弹总体设计技术.分析了国内外导弹武器设计技术的发展,指出设计技术向着以“效能为核心”的设计方向发展;提出了面向效能的设计理念,分析指出面向效能的设计是以追求满意设计为目标的优化设计;在新的设计理念指导下提出了面向突防效能设计的技术框架,主要说明了面向突防效能的超声速巡航导弹设计框架、效能基础、技术基础、基本模式以及几项关键技术等.     

基于Multi-Agent技术的大型航天研发项目风险分析方法

大型航天研发项目对于社会经济发展和国防安全有着重要影响,是国家重大工程中一类较为特殊的项目,而风险分析是大型航天研发项目按计划、高质量、低成本完成的重要保障。通过分析大型航天研发项目的特点、风险因素以及管理过程,结合Multi-Agent以及分布式项目管理的理论和技术,研究和提出了一种新的基于Multi-Agent技术的大型航天研发项目风险分析方法,在此基础上针对具体项目进行了实验仿真,获取了项目的风险水平和关键风险因素,为航天研发项目风险管理与控制提供决策支持。     

HLA的雷达目标跟踪算法验证系统

构建了一个基于HLA的雷达目标跟踪分布式仿真系统。采用组件设计思想,实现目标跟踪组件和滤波组件,并将这两套组件嵌入到目标跟踪分布式仿真系统中。实践结果表明:基于组件思想构建的目标跟踪和滤波算法能够很好嵌入到分布式雷达目标跟踪系统中,从而为跟踪算法的合理选择、算法参数的优化设计,以及实际系统的研制提供有力支撑。     

陆战平台信息系统的主要交换分析

交换技术是陆战平台信息化的关键技术,未来陆战平台的交换呈现了一体化综合交换的趋势。对陆战平台的主要业务和交换需求进行了分析,阐述了当前的主要交换手段,并针对当前交换系统的设计现状提出了综合交换的设计思路,为陆战平台交换系统的设计提供了依据。     

舰炮制导炮弹技术风险评估

针对技术风险评价中信息的模糊性和不确定性,提出了舰炮制导炮弹技术风险的灰色聚类评价方法。首先将舰炮制导炮弹研制方案的关键技术进行分解,确定综合评价指标,得到各指标的属性值;然后按照综合评价要求划分灰类,建立白化权函数;最后结合权重采用灰色聚类综合评价方法获得各关键技术所属风险级别及研制方案的综合技术风险值。算例表明,灰色聚类评价方法可将技术风险评价中的模糊和不确定信息定量化处理,能够有效地对舰炮制导炮弹的技术风险进行评价。     

基于模糊综合评价模型的武器研制技术风险分析*

针对舰炮武器系统研制的技术特点和风险分布特征,提出了基于模糊综合评价模型的技术风险分析方法,并结合具体风险因素分析了舰炮武器系统研制技术风险评估的指标和准则。介绍了某型大口径舰炮系统的研制风险分析实例,给出了该舰炮系统研制技术风险的评估结果,验证了该方法的可靠性和有效性。     

Skewness correction X̄ and R charts for skewed distributions

This paper proposes a skewness correction (SC) method for constructing the and R control charts for skewed process distributions. Their asymmetric control limits (about the central line) are based on the degree of skewness estimated from the subgroups, and no parameter assumptions are made on the form of process distribution. These charts are simply adjustments of the conventional Shewhart control charts. Moreover, the chart is almost the same as the Shewhart chart if the process distribution is known to be symmetrical. The new charts are compared with the Shewhart charts and weighted variance (WV) control charts. When the process distribution is in some neighborhood of Weibull, lognormal, Burr or binomial family, simulation shows that the SC control charts have Type I risk (i.e., probability of a false alarm) closer to 0.27% of the normal case. Even in the case where the process distribution is exponential with known mean, not only the control limits and Type I risk, but also the Type II risk of the SC charts are closer to those of the exact and R charts than those of the WV and Shewhart charts. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 555–573, 2003     

技术成熟度多维评估模型研究

技术成熟度直接关系到武器装备的研制和应用。针对技术成熟度评估存在过度依赖专家智慧、操作周期长、费用高;指标单一、可信度缺乏;数据难以获取、评价方法难度较大等问题,研究了技术发展与技术对应文献关系,提出了基于技术分解结构构建技术成熟度多维评估模型,分析了基于S曲线知识图谱划分技术成熟度等级,并以航母电磁弹射器技术为例进行模型验证。研究表明,技术成熟度多维评估模型具有客观、简便、费用低、易操作等特点,可以与TRL互为补充。