A note on the forecast performance of temporal aggregation

Earlier research on the effects of nonoverlapping temporal aggregation on demand forecasting showed the benefits associated with such an approach under a stationary AR(1) or MA(1) processes for decision making conducted at the disaggregate level. The first objective of this note is to extend those important results by considering a more general underlying demand process. The second objective is to assess the conditions under which aggregation may be a preferable approach for improving decision making at the aggregate level as well. We confirm the validity of previous results under more general conditions, and we show the increased benefit resulting from forecasting by temporal aggregation at lower frequency time units. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 489–500, 2014     

基于变转速的柴油抗磨性评定方法

以MRS-1J型四球摩擦磨损试验机为平台,提出了一种变转速条件下柴油抗磨性评定方法。利用VC＋＋对试验机软件进行了改进,增加了负荷-转速程序控制功能,实现了试验机自由设置转速、负荷的变化范围、变化速率和变化模式。通过正交试验方法确定了最佳试验条件,发现试验时间3N1min,负荷11N2N,油温60℃,转速在1 min内由100 r/min线性上升至20N3r/min再线性下降至100 r/min并依次循环时,该试验方法具有良好的重复性和区分性。在与高频往复试验机法的对比中,发现该方法的磨斑直径变化率大于高频往复试验机法,证明变转速四球机法优于高频往复试验机法。     

随机脉宽调制的Simulink仿真研究

应用Matlab仿真平台,开发了随机脉宽调制的Simulink仿真文件,运用此仿真文件,研究了逆变器的谐波能量分布随随机增益变化的规律,仿真结果有助于实际装置的研制。     

变异系数在可靠性中的应用

对使用变异系数描述随机变量的离散程度进行分析,推导了可靠性工程中常用的4种概率分布的变异系数与分布参数之间的关系.以机械产品整机及其零部件不同失效模式的寿命变异系数的取值范围为实例,说明了变异系数在可靠性工程中的应用.     

A fluid queueing model for link travel time moments

We analyze the moments of the random time required for a vehicle to traverse a transportation network link of arbitrary length when its speed is governed by a random environment. The problem is motivated by stochastic transportation network applications in which the estimation of travel time moments is of great importance. We analyze this random time in a transient and asymptotic sense by employing results from the field of fluid queues. The results are demonstrated on two example problems. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

目标航路捷径波动与雷达误差关系研究

在靶场对武器装备的试验鉴定中,必须进行试验设计,目标和目标航路参数是试验参数设计中重点考虑的内容之一,目标航路捷径的波动则直接影响试验参数设计和考核结论。通过分析武器装备中雷达误差来源,找出目标航路捷径波动与雷达误差之间的函数关系,并计算推导出航路捷径允许波动范围的数学模型;以靶场试验实例给出了航路捷径波动确定的基本原则,为靶场试验设计提供有价值的参考方法。     

Rectangles algorithm for generating normal variates

We propose an algorithm for generating normal random variates that is based on the acceptance–rejection method and uses a piecewise majorizing function. The piecewise function has 2048 equal‐area pieces, 2046 of which are constant, and the two extreme pieces are curves that majorize the tails. The proposed algorithm has not only good performance from correlation induction perspective, but also works well from a speed perspective. It is faster than the inversion method by Odeh and Evans and most other methods. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

基于SD流率基本入树的部队装备管理信息化建设研究

部队装备管理信息化建设是当前我军装备管理领域正在着力进行的一项复杂系统工程。深入探索建设规律,对于指导建设实践、提高建设质量具有重要意义。在对部队装备管理信息化建设进行系统分析的基础上,利用系统动力学（SD）流率基本人树建模方法构建了其流率基本人树模型,并利用vensim仿真软件对其进行了实例仿真。研究表明,运用系统动力学方法可以实现对部队装备管理信息化建设问题的研究由定性向定量转变,深化规律探索,同时研究结果也可为建设决策提供科学的定量理论支持。     

基于随机脉宽调制技术的感应电机矢量控制系统研究

随机脉宽调制技术可以使逆变器输出电压的谐波成分均匀地分布在一个较宽的频率范围内,达到抑制噪声和机械振动的目的.把随机脉宽调制技术引入感应电机矢量控制系统中,保证了调速系统的高性能,同时也降低了电机的有色噪声和机械振动.     

一种复合制导的中末交班策略研究

针对复合制导中的中末制导交班问题,设计了一种可同时实现导引头和弹道交班的方案.中制导应用变结构控制理论设计了一种中制导律使导引头在中制导结束时指向目标;交接导引段实现比例系数的过渡,从而保证了弹道的平滑过渡.仿真结果证明了该方案能够适用于远距离制导的复合制导.