SOCIAL PREFERENCES FOR NATIONAL DEFENCE AND POLICE ENFORCEMENT IN WESTERN EUROPE

We study the determinants of social preferences for national defence and for police and law enforcement. For this task, we estimate a bivariate ordered probit model for a set of European countries (France, Finland, Norway, Portugal, Spain and Sweden) in 2006. Determinants of spending decisions for defence and police are found to be linked but are of significantly different magnitudes. Besides, measures against terrorist threats are positively linked to police and defence spending increases, while the subjective perception of fiscal pressure has no influence. Finally, no significant differences are found between Northern and Southern Europe.     

Allocating the U.S. Department of Defense Budget: Revisiting the ‘Incremental/Fair Share Model’

Abstract

This article examines the ‘incremental/fair share model’ that was proposed by Alex Mintz in 1988 concerning the budget allocation of the U.S. Department of Defense. Although Mintz was unable to confirm the correctness of his model, this study demonstrated it to be statistically significant. In the statistical analyses, I used the two-stage least squares method and Durbin’s h-test to better scrutinize the model’s adequacy. Few previous studies have addressed the allocation of the U.S. defence budget; consequently, the incremental/fair-share model should constitute a starting point for further research on the U.S. defence budget allocation.     

Country survey XII: South Africa

This article examines the relationship between defence expenditure and economic performance in South Africa, both prior to and after that country's first fully democratic election in 1994. Prior to 1994 defence expenditure decisions were largely dominated by non‐economic factors; since then defence spending has declined in reaction to, inter alia, the need to address a number of socio‐economic inequities.

After 1975 in particular, military industrialisation in South Africa placed a disproportionately high burden on the country's industrial resources and natural economic and technical capabilities. However, although this suggests that the opportunity cost of domestic arms production has been fairly high, the country's poor economic and development performance since the mid‐1970s is a function of underlying structural deficiencies and institutional constraints rather than the consequence of inordinately high defence spending levels.     

On the nature and scope of defence economics

Defence economics uses the tools of economics to study the defence sector and its domestic and international implications. Simple models require careful application in defence economics, since indirect effects may have counterintuitive impacts. For example, while certain arms races can lead to the outbreak of war, others may have the counterintuitive effect of discouraging the outbreak of war owing to mutual deterrence.

The world is now multipolar rather than bipolar, analogous to an oligopoly situation. This multipolar world can be analyzed by a qualitative characteristic function, where the formation of a potential coalition allows study of the shift from conflict to cooperation in international relations. Some new issues to be considered in this framework include accidental nuclear war, potential arms races and conflicts in the third world, and the proliferation of chemical weapons and missiles.     

不同导引模式下的末修弹脉冲参数优化研究

在总脉冲量确定的情形下,在启控时间、总脉冲数、最小点火时间间隔及点火阈值等脉冲参数对末修弹落点散布的影响进行详细分析的基础上,利用数值仿真的方法,对比例导引模式、抛物线导引模式、落点预测导引模式、弹道追踪导引模式和zx导引模式等常用导引模式下的脉冲参数优化进行深入分析研究．     

实施大区域防空应重视末端防御

结合大区域防空作战的理论研究,分析未来防空中末端防御在大区域防空体系中的地位和作用。提出末端防御是大区域防空的重要组成部分,是防空体系中实施大区域防空的最后一道防线,是实现歼灭敌空袭兵器与掩护重要目标安全的重要手段。通过分析现代空袭特点,提出实施末端防御对我防空武器装备发展的要求。     

摆动喷管控制精度相关问题讨论

对不同性质的喷管特点以及在控制力作用下喷管的响应特性进行了初步分析;以某防空导弹为例,阐述了摆动喷管在非理想状态下摆动时作动器牵连运动、正负摆角不对称、力臂变化、摆心漂移、位移传递系数精度和预调角对摆角控制的影响;同时说明了负载力矩和伺服机构相关参数影响着摆动喷管位置控制精度。     

末端防御武器平台炮控性能检测方法

末端防御武器平台炮控系统性能的好坏直接影响首发命中率和射击反应时间等重要战技指标,在设计试验阶段,对其炮控性能进行检测是必不可少的环节。采用基于三棱锥模型的炮控性能检测方法,建立了三棱锥计算模型并进行Matlab仿真分析以及检测精度分析,从而验证了其工作原理及可行性,满足武器平台炮控性能检测的要求。     

基于微分平坦的高超声速滑翔飞行器轨迹规划

针对高超声速滑翔飞行器再入轨迹规划问题,提出了一种基于微分平坦理论的三自由度轨迹生成方法。在分析纵向运动简化模型的微分平坦属性基础上,将纵向参考轨迹规划问题映射到平坦输出空间,消除微分动力学约束的同时降低系统设计的维数,进而提高求解效率;采用全局插值多项式参数化平坦输出函数,将问题转换为非线性规划问题求解;设计比例-微分反馈控制律跟踪纵向参考轨迹,同时采用航向角误差走廊控制侧向运动,实现三自由度轨迹生成。仿真分析表明所提出的方法能够较快生成满足多种约束且性能优化的飞行轨迹。     

Mandated defence offsets: can they ever deliver?

Defence offsets are elements of defence procurement deals additional to the primary content. Offsets are usually expected to yield technological or industrial benefits to the purchasing country (e.g. countertrade, technology transfers, or additional jobs) and military buyers often require suppliers to make offsets available “cost-free.” The authors argued previously that such strategies achieve little of value to buyers that lack market power and are unnecessary otherwise, since purchasers with the market power to extract more value for money from foreign suppliers can do so anyway. This article also focuses on the supply side of offset deals. The USA is the world's largest defence offsets supplier but the US government opposes offsets demands as economically inefficient and trade distorting. Even if offsets are inefficient and trade distorting, they may still benefit a materiel-exporting country such as the USA as they may induce exports and create associated benefits for the offsets provider.