The Serbian defence institution: the need for clear policy guidance to improve the Serbian defence planning,management, and command processes

ABSTRACT

The uncritical layering of western liberal defence governance norms and concepts on top of existing legacy concepts has impeded achieving coherent military capabilities and capacities when Serbia’s political and military leadership tried to reform the defence system using Western benchmarking principles and Western countries’ best practices. The process of this change has been more valuable than its actual output, as defined by increased capabilities. Such outcomes should be reflective of policy guidance, and can be thought of as closing the trinity loop of a defence planning system: plans, money and execution. This article addresses two key functional areas of the Serbian defence institution. First, it assesses the current state of defence planning to discern its strengths and weaknesses to ascertain if plans are tied to financial decision-making. Second, a full examination of current Serbian defence management is conducted to discern whether weaknesses exist that distract from producing operational capabilities. Both areas are analyzed thoroughly and some solutions for change are proposed. Also, the article analyzes the appearance of two negative phenomena in the planning process – economization and managerialism.     

Efficient budget allocation strategies for elementary effects method in stochastic simulation

This paper focuses on extending the Morris' elementary effects method (MM) for sensitivity analysis/factor screening originated in the context of deterministic computer experiments to the stochastic simulation setting. Given a fixed simulation budget to expend, the main objective is to provide efficient and accurate estimates of main and interaction (or nonlinear) effects coined by the standard MM for characterizing the importance of each factor, despite the impact of simulation errors. Taking into account both the factor/input sampling uncertainty rooted in MM and the random errors inherent in a stochastic simulation, we develop efficient budget allocation strategies for implementing MM in this new context. Under each strategy proposed, we derive its corresponding optimal budget partition and optimal budget allocation rules. Numerical results corroborate the practical effectiveness of the proposed budget allocation strategies.     

旋转自稳定末敏子弹运动特性分析

为研究某型旋转自稳定末敏子弹运动特性,充分考虑末敏子弹的结构强非对称特点和其初始抛撒条件,引入动不平衡弹体模型,推导超大攻角条件下子弹的空间6自由度弹道方程,计算分析子弹的稳态扫描运动特性。结果表明:子弹体的质量分布非对称和初始抛撒角速度是子弹药实现稳态扫描运动的必要条件;子弹扫描频率只由抛撒角速度ω_(σ0)决定,且和ω_(σ0)正相关;初始俯仰角φ_(a0)≥0°时,扫描角整体呈增大趋势,初始俯仰角φ_(a0)0°时,扫描角整体变化趋势为先减小后增大;扫描面积与配重-全弹质量比、初始俯仰角、初始偏航角和初始角速度呈正相关,与均质圆柱体转动惯量比呈负相关。     

时间延迟对电视末制导系统稳定性的影响

为了分析时间延迟对捕控指令电视末制导系统稳定性的影响,建立了武器操作员的人工操控响应模型和数据传输模型,并纳入到导弹控制系统中建立了人在回路的捕控指令末制导模型.在分析武器操作员在捕控指令末制导阶段操作的基础上,进行了人在回路的全数字仿真,根据仿真结果分析了时间延迟对电视末制导系统稳定性的影响.     

自主式UCAV火控算法与系统设计

介绍了一种改进的CCRP轰炸瞄准原理,给出了其数学模型和瞄准原理公式,分析、说明了其瞄准原理和特点.根据自主式无人战斗机的特点、任务、要求,运用此原理,进行了系统设计,确定了火飞耦合控制律.研究和仿真结果表明:该原理正确,所述的火控算法和设计的控制律合理,为进一步开展自主式UCAV的研究和设计打下了基础.     

可实现以期望角度过顶迂回打击的制导律设计

在已有的小型导弹角度约束制导律设计中,对敌方目标打击角度约束范围往往有限.为了扩大角度约束的可行范围,实现对目标的全方位打击,基于双圆弧原理设计了可实现过顶迂回打击的制导律.首先,建立了导弹的末制导段相对运动模型,然后对双圆弧曲线拟合的原理进行了介绍和推导证明,对于两段圆弧的关键参数进行了推导,最后基于该原理设计了一种...     

Integrated guidance and control of guided projectile with multiple constraints based on fuzzy adaptive and dynamic surface

Based on fuzzy adaptive and dynamic surface (FADS), an integrated guidance and control (IGC) approach was proposed for large caliber naval gun guided projectile, which was robust to target maneuver, canard dynamic characteristics, and multiple constraints, such as impact angle, limited measurement of line of sight (LOS) angle rate and nonlinear saturation of canard deflection. Initially, a strict feedback cascade model of IGC in longitudinal plane was established, and extended state observer (ESO) was designed to estimate LOS angle rate and uncertain disturbances with unknown boundary inside and outside of system, including aerodynamic parameters perturbation, target maneuver and model errors. Secondly, aiming at zeroing LOS angle tracking error and LOS angle rate in finite time, a nonsingular terminal sliding mode (NTSM) was designed with adaptive exponential reaching law. Furthermore, combining with dynamic surface, which prevented the complex differential of virtual control laws, the fuzzy adaptive systems were designed to approximate observation errors of uncertain disturbances and to reduce chatter of control law. Finally, the adaptive Nussbaum gain function was introduced to compensate nonlinear saturation of canard deflection. The LOS angle tracking error and LOS angle rate were convergent in finite time and whole system states were uniform ultimately bounded, rigorously proven by Lyapunov stability theory. Hardware-in-the-loop simulation (HILS) and digital simulation experiments both showed FADS provided guided projectile with good guidance performance while striking targets with different maneuvering forms.     

提升装备物资采购保障能力的策略设计

装备物资采购关系到装备保障职能的充分发挥和作战效能发挥能力的积累,其采购保障过程涉及极其复杂的技术问题和管理问题。采购保障策略是开展采购和管理项目所确定的思路和实现途径,完善的采购保障策略设计对于重大的装备物资采购项目的成败具有举足轻重的作用。本文从军队装备物资采购的基本内涵与特点入手,结合工作实践和调查研究,从采购信息运用、流程管控、权责修订、法规约束和需求预测等业务管理层面进行分析,阐述了当前装备物资采购的发展现状,提出了提升装备物资采购保障能力的策略设计,以期实现采购组织、流程和系统的整体优化,为装备物资采购改革中相关措施的修订与完善提供新思路和新方法。     

无人作战的人机融合：挑战与出路

无人作战对于人和机器两个要素的融合提出了巨大的挑战。一方面,无人作战独特的作战模式和作战环境对于自然人的能力素质构成严峻挑战,高度智能化的作战系统运行速度、海量的数据信息日益挑战人类的反应能力和决策能力,虚拟的、远程的、与现实战场隔绝的作战环境日益挑战人类的心理素质。另一方面,机器的高度智能化虽然有利于更好地发挥潜在的作战能力,但也不可避免地带来战争失控和道德沦丧的风险。破解人机两个维度的挑战,实现人与机器的深度融合,一方面要利用增强技术从物理、生理、心理三个层面加速提高人类的能力素质,另一方面是强化机器人的伦理安全设计,坚守人类对机器人的控制底线,规避机器人失控和战争“非人化”的道德风险。     

吸气式远程超声速防空导弹一体化外形设计的几个重大技术问题

根据国外吸气式超声速战术导弹一体化外形设计取得的最新进展 ,着重分析了这类导弹外形设计的特点和技术关键 ,提出了吸气式远程超声速防空导弹一体化外形设计中应解决好的几个重大技术问题 ,以期引起各方对吸气式防空导弹总体设计中有关问题的关注和讨论 ,共同寻找解决这些技术问题的有效途径