火箭助飞鱼雷攻潜试验方案研究

为贴近实战完成火箭助飞鱼雷攻潜试验,针对目标指示信息设备选择、目标靶的选择、射击方式解算等几个试验方案设计关键点对试验方案设计进行了分析,建立了影响攻潜效果主要因素的仿真计算模型,并给出了仿真计算结果。经海上试验检验,方案设计合理可行。     

技术成熟度多维评估模型研究

技术成熟度直接关系到武器装备的研制和应用。针对技术成熟度评估存在过度依赖专家智慧、操作周期长、费用高;指标单一、可信度缺乏;数据难以获取、评价方法难度较大等问题,研究了技术发展与技术对应文献关系,提出了基于技术分解结构构建技术成熟度多维评估模型,分析了基于S曲线知识图谱划分技术成熟度等级,并以航母电磁弹射器技术为例进行模型验证。研究表明,技术成熟度多维评估模型具有客观、简便、费用低、易操作等特点,可以与TRL互为补充。     

Portfolio analysis for defense: taking account of networking

To manage their assets at an enterprise level, defense organizations have turned to portfolio theory for the planning, analysis and management of their military forces and materiel. Despite being well established in the commercial sector, the application of portfolio approaches in defense is problematic. The vexatious question for defense of how to define and measure benefits arising is complicated by the increased utility and effectiveness achieved through networking of military forces and the equipment they use. The authors discuss the challenges for defense in using a portfolio approach and propose a conceptual model for dealing with the effects arising from networking with information and communications technologies.     

基于规则LDPC码校验矩阵的测试响应压缩方法研究

摘要：针对现有的测试响应压缩方法在未知位处理能力、混淆能力、诊断能力和压缩能力方面只侧重于单一能力的问题,首次将LDPC编码技术应用于测试响应压缩中,提出一种基于规则LDPC码校验矩阵的测试响应压缩方法．通过对上述4种能力进行仿真分析得出,该方法与现有测试响应压缩方法相比整体性能有明显的提升．     

院校网络信息资源建设应服务于信息化教学应用

随着现代信息技术的飞速发展和网络技术的广泛应用,网络信息资源呈现的形式更加丰富多彩。武警院校网络信息资源建设如何为信息化教学服务,是摆在武警院校教育工作者面前的一个重要课题。从武警院校网络信息资源建设存在的问题入手,分析了网络信息资源对信息化教学的作用,并对网络信息资源建设服务于武警院校信息化教学的主要对策进行了论述。     

同时验证整装和分系统固有可用度的试验方案

针对整装和分系统可用度同时需要验证的问题,假设单系统可用度、可靠性和维修性试验方案都已知,以试验样本量确定方法为研究重点,以同时验证整装和分系统的可用度、平均故障间隔时间和平均修复时间等3个指标参数为设计要求,提出了一种定数截尾试验方案.该方案包括2种试验方式.2种试验方式都能够完成对整装和分系统3个指标参数的验证.     

射频前端强电磁脉冲前门耦合研究

针对强电磁脉冲能量经天线进入射频前端的威胁,给出强电磁脉冲环境的评估方法,通过分析天线-射频前端工作原理,提出全频带脉冲耦合能量的理论计算公式.并以中馈天线-短波电台为例,用电磁仿真软件CST实现了天线仿真与前端电路仿真的有机连接,得出前门耦合数据及其影响因素,此仿真方案也为更深入分析耦合效应、验证防护技术提供了良好平台.最后根据仿真为前门防护提出若干意见.     

SLOWING DOWN TO KEEP THE LEAD IN MILITARY TECHNOLOGY

We develop a model of military technology competition among states. States can choose to introduce new military technology, mimic rivals’ level of technology, or withdraw from the contest. States can choose to implement any level of technology within their current feasible technologies. We find that states with significant technological leads should sometimes withhold new technologies, only strategically releasing them to trump rivals’ efforts. We develop the model by refining Admiral Jackie Fisher’s roughly articulated concept of ‘plunging’. We then use this refined argument to reanalyze the case of naval rivalries among European powers between the Crimean War and the First World War. Finally, we conclude by discussing the model’s implications for current US military force structure planning.     

FORECASTING SERIES CONTAINING OFFSETTING BREAKS: OLD SCHOOL AND NEW SCHOOL METHODS OF FORECASTING TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM

Transnational terrorism data are difficult to forecast because they contain an unknown number of structural breaks of unknown functional form. The rise of religious fundamentalism, the demise of the Soviet Union, and the rise of al Qaeda have changed the nature of transnational terrorism. ‘Old School’ forecasting methods simply smooth or difference the data. ‘New School’ methods use estimated break dates to control for regime shifts when forecasting. We compare the various forecasting methods using a Monte Carlo study with data containing different types of breaks. The study's results are used to forecast various types of transnational terrorist incidents.