The insurgency of the Vendée

The insurrection in the Vendée combined open warfare with the methods of petite guerre, ambushing French republican soldiers and cutting their supply lines to Paris. These tactics, when combined with the hatreds generated by a civil war, go far to explain to the cruelty of the conflict in the west and the depth of the hatreds it engendered. In republican eyes the use of guerrilla tactics was unjust and illegitimate, and they denounced their adversaries as common criminals and brigands, portraying them as backward, superstitious, even as subhuman, and in the process justified the savage repression they unleashed against them.     

Initiating insurgencies abroad: French plans to ‘chouannise’ Britain and Ireland, 1793–1798

Secret French plans to launch guerrilla-style raids on the British Isles devised in the spring of 1796 were referred to as ‘chouanneries’. The name and concept behind these small-war operations were modelled on the irregular tactics used by the Chouan rebels in the Vendée, which the French state army had brutally quashed, but some wished to transfer into their institutional practice. Part of France's ongoing military strategy in the war against Britain, which included fomenting insurrection in Ireland, these irregular operations were to be manned partially by pardoned deserters and released convicts and prisoners of war. Of these, only Tate's brief invasion of Wales in 1797 was realised, but the surviving plans provide insightful historical lessons into an Anglophobic mindset shared by a small network of practitioners and policy deciders on the effectiveness of such shock and awe tactics. Largely motivated by the desire to take revenge for Britain's support of counter-revolutionaries in the Vendée, these plans could more aptly be referred to as counter-‘chouanneries’.     

惯组动态测试台误差分析及附加运动补偿算法

为了完成惯组的高精度、大动态测试任务,基于Gough-Stewart平台设计了电动六自由度惯组动态测试台。建立了系统的误差模型并分析了电动缸长度误差对系统精度的影响,分析了电动缸在惯组动态测试台运动过程中产生的被动螺旋附加运动,并对该运动补偿算法进行了研究。对被动螺旋附加运动产生的误差进行量化分析,结果表明,被动螺旋附加运动对惯组动态测试台的位姿精度存在非常显著的影响。为了消除该影响,编制了补偿算法,并将其应用于惯组动态测试台的实时控制系统中。实验结果表明,经过算法补偿后,惯组动态测试台的位姿精度达到了设计指标要求。     

装备技术体系网络建模与结构优化方法

针对装备技术发展管理的重用度和冗余度问题,研究了体系网络建模与结构优化方法。将装备技术抽象为节点,技术关系抽象为边,提出了基于装备技术描述属性框架和技术关系分析的体系网络建模方法;将3种经典的网络社团探测方法应用于装备技术聚类,通过比较评估指标,生成了技术聚类优化方案;基于加权网络中心度算法,识别了对体系冗余影响最大的装备技术。以包含235项激光武器装备技术的技术体系为例,验证了方法的有效性,总结了体系结构的优化结论。     

基于CBM的航空装备保障费用动态分析

目前航空装备的保障普遍存在保障费用高和装备可用度低的问题。针对视情维修(Condition-based Maintenance,简称CBM)在新一代航空装备中的应用,以保证航空装备的战备完好性,降低维修保障费用为目标,应用系统动力学原理,建立基于视情维修的航空装备保障费用的动态反馈结构模型。仿真结果表明,将视情维修方法应用到航空装备保障,可有效降低保障费用,提高战备完好率。     

Serious Rules for Nuclear Power Without Proliferation

The authors propose five principles for addressing the major deficiencies of the current treaty-based approach to nonproliferation. These involve: effectively closing the door to withdrawals from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT); defining which nuclear technologies fall within the NPT's “inalienable right” provision, so as to maintain a reasonable safety margin against possible military application; expansion of International Atomic Energy Agency inspections to include greater readiness to use its “special” inspection authority; creation of an NPT enforcement regime, to include a secretariat; and universalizing the NPT so as to apply to all states, while creating a path for current non-parties to come into compliance. There is no illusion here about the prospects for the adoption of this approach. At a minimum, the world needs to be frank about the gap between nuclear programs and current nonproliferation protection. Encouragement of greater use of nuclear power should be predicated on closing that gap.     

A neural network measurement of relative military security ‐ the case of Greece and Cyprus

I demonstrate the existence of two sources of contestability in the military aerospace market, within producing and export countries, through the State’s triple role as unique buyer, regulator and seller. For the producing countries, I introduce the new concept, ‘sovereignty price’; that is, the profit a State agrees to grant to its defence firms to perpetuate their domestic activities. This subjective, evolutionary concept provides a dynamic character to the theory of contestable markets. Moreover, I show that contestability is more effective than antitrust policies and a solution of the cost disease. Empirical cases are shown to confirm the theoretical analysis.     

Globalisation in the defence industry: An exploration of the paradigm for us and European defence firms and the implications for being global players

This paper explores some of the key issues associated with the restructuring of the defence industry. A comparison is made between the US and the European Defence Industrial Bases in terms of the drivers for change and the paradigms within which change has taken place. Having shown that some very important differences exist, the paper then explores the approaches that have been adopted for industry consolidation and references them to the academic literature on mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and strategic alliances (SAs). Given that most of the key defence players recognise the need to be global players, the paper presents an argument that the European firms’ experience of operating with a wide range of forms of corporate alliance will serve them in good stead for operating on a global defence scale. US firms, in contrast, have focused largely on M&A activity.     

How should modeling and simulation be used to support defense acquisition?

This paper investigates the potential for modeling and simulation to contribute to new defense system development, by increasing the productivity of traditional R&D in developing system‐specific technology. Building on a previous optimal control model of defense system R&D, it shows that (1) the optimal use of modeling is related in a natural way to that of traditional R&D, and (2) both have similar optimal profiles over time. Simulated results based on limited historical data suggest that optimal use of modeling could increase the rate of growth in system‐specific technology significantly.     

MONEY IN SOUTHERN AFRICAN POLITICS

“Lack of money is the root of all evil”

George Bernard Shaw

In a environment where party financing, private funding in particular, is generally a laissez-faire business, as in most Southern African countries, there is the real risk that interest groups and wealthy individuals will buy influence in political parties and in so doing erode public confidence in the political system. Because they are neither open to public scrutiny nor subject to any legislative restraints, huge private donations can, and often do, come with strings attached. This lack of transparency and openness, as well as mechanisms to prevent it, provides ample ground for influence peddling, where those who pay the piper call the tune. Left unchecked, this party funding scenario will continue to be a serious indictment of the region's democratisation projects, crippling democracy and stunting economic development. This article consid