基于证据理论的军械装备修理能力认证评估方法

借鉴AHP法建立军械装备修理能力认证评估体系,并构建其递阶层次模型。确立体系各级指标权重中,引入D-S证据理论对多专家意见进行融合;综合考虑专家的权重和不确定度,并采用单值转换分布概率算法对专家评价分数进行换算,改进了AHP法受专家经验、知识限制,主观性强等缺点。经算例分析,该方法能准确可靠地评价型号装备修理机构的修理能力,减少专家主观因素对评估结果的影响。     

基于AHP与熵权的舰艇编队信息作战能力模糊综合评估

在确立了舰艇编队信息作战能力评估指标体系的基础上,运用AHP和熵权法,得到评价指标的综合权重.通过模糊综合评判,得出综合评判总分.以舰艇编队的信息侦察处理能力为例进行综合评估.最后通过进一步研究分析,构建了一种数学模型,用于找出影响舰艇编队信息作战能力的薄弱指标.     

改进的粒子群神经网络在飞控中的应用

针对BP神经网络对初始值敏感、容易陷入局部寻优且收敛速度较慢,提出用粒子群对神经网络的参数进行优化,同时设计了衰减的指数函数对惯性权重进行动态调整以提高算法性能.并应用该算法对导弹飞控系统的逆误差进行补偿,仿真结果表明,该方法对逆误差进行了有效的补偿,避免了局部寻优并提高了学习效率.     

应急辅助定位及精度评估方法研究

在可视导航卫星数少于四颗、无法进行传统导航解算的恶劣环境下,导航接收机可利用外部高程气压计提供的高程或者内部守时模块的钟差等信息进行应急辅助定位。在该应急辅助定位工作模式的误差分析中,传统导航定位误差传递模型无法适用。针对此问题,本文在研究三星结合高程、三星结合钟差、双星结合高程钟差等几种应急辅助定位原理的基础上,给出了新的应急辅助定位误差传递的分析模型,利用仿真算例验证了该模型的正确性。通过对定位精度的分析,说明根据卫星分布特点可以按照本文方法量化得到伪距测量与辅助信息的精度的最优数量级关系,可以用最小代价实现定位精度的提升。该结论可指导接收机外部辅助器件的选择。     

液体储罐泄漏数学模型的改进研究

在液体储罐泄漏过程中,罐内压力是随泄漏时间变化的量,泄漏强度也随罐内压力而变化,但在已有对液体流泄漏数学模型的建构中,在后果计算时没有全面考虑罐内压力以及罐内液体闪蒸导致空间的物质量,获得的结果用于后果评价,就必然与实际情况存在偏差.应用数学方法,对液体泄漏模型进行改进,改进后模型把罐内压力以及罐内空间的物质量作为变量,可较真实模拟出泄漏时泄漏强度、储罐内气体压力及泄漏量随时间变化的大小情况,并模拟了孔洞液体泄漏,得出不太可能发生灾难性事故的结论.     

The Long and Winding Road: The US Army Managerial Approach to Command and the Adoption of Mission Command (Auftragstaktik)

The purpose of the current paper is to examine the adoption and adaptation process of mission command (Auftragstaktik) in the US Army. This concept, developed by the Prussians, denotes a decentralized command approach wherein superiors dictate their intent and allow subordinates to formulate their operational plans independently and change it according to the emerging situation. The paper examines the US command approach prior to the adoption of mission command. It argues that it was heavily influenced by corporate management practices which inherently contradict mission command approach. It continues and investigates how the US Army endeavored to emulate the approach in its doctrine and in major operations.

While it has officially incorporated mission command into its doctrine, it has been less successful in utilizing it in operational situations. This state of affairs has to do with the cultural legacy of the managerial approach to command that still persist. Despite the partial success, the US Army has recently reaffirmed its commitment to this approach.     

Insights from a Database of Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hizb-ul-Mujahideen Militants

This article uses a novel database of 1,625 posthumously published biographies of members of two Islamist militant organizations (Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM)), all of whom were killed in the course of carrying out militant attacks. In general, each biography provides data on the militant’s birthplace, education, recruitment, and training. The number of observations in this database is a full order of magnitude larger than those of previous databases assembled from militant biographies. While the sample of militants in this database is the product of multiple selection effects, analysis of the database undermines many common myths about Pakistani militants and casts doubt on current policy approaches to mitigating Islamist militancy in Pakistan.     

Reconsidering American strategy in South Asia: destroying terrorist sanctuaries in Pakistan's tribal areas

Over seven years after the 11 September 2001 attacks on the United States, Afghanistan is again at the forefront of the headlines, faced with a brutal insurgency and a resurgent Taliban. Many scholars and policymakers attribute the instability in Afghanistan to a terrorist sanctuary in the neighboring Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Pakistan has attempted to eliminate this sanctuary through negotiation and armed force. This paper argues that Pakistani strategy has failed to achieve its desired results because of local tribal norms, the weak nature of previous agreements, military units ill-equipped for a counterinsurgency and counterterrorism role, as well as ideological fissures in the Pakistani establishment. Afterward, the paper argues that the United States and Coalition forces should pursue their strategy remaining cognizant of local tribal norms, step up training efforts for Pakistani forces, promote development of the tribal areas, and cultivate options for eliminating the FATA sanctuary through covert means.     

基于DM2的体系结构可执行模型构建方法

基于元模型的体系结构设计思想和基于可执行模型的评估方法是体系结构领域研究的两个热点,但当前的研究没有将两者结合起来。文章基于DoDAF2.0提出的元模型数据(Meta-Model Data,DM2),将元模型的思想和基于可执行模型的评估方法相结合,分析了基于DM2的逻辑数据与可执行模型各构建要素的对应关系,构建了基于DM2的逻辑数据模型直接转可执行模型的过程框架,重点研究了如何直接从体系结构底层数据转可执行模型的方法,从而为进行基于元模型的体系结构可执行评估提供模型基础,也为进一步实现体系结构自动化验证评估提供技术支持。实例验证了文章提出的方法。     

基于时频单源点检测和聚类验证技术的欠定混合盲辨识算法

针对欠定混合盲辨识问题,提出了一种基于时频单源点检测及聚类验证的盲辨识算法。检测各个源信号的时频单源点,利用奇异值分解的方法求解不同单源点集合对应的混合矢量,利用基于k均值的聚类验证技术完成源信号数目和混合矩阵的联合估计。算法放宽了已有方法对时频单源区域的假设,不需要假设信号存在时频单源区域,可以完成仅存在离散的时频单源点条件下的欠定混合盲辨识;同时克服了传统算法需要假设源信号个数已知的不足,可以有效地估计源信号数目。仿真结果验证了算法的有效性。