新一代人工智能在国防科技领域发展探讨

新一代人工智能技术已经成为当前研究的重点和热点,并逐渐成为提升国防力量、军事能力和国家竞争力的有效途径。本文在总结人工智能概念的基础上,给出了新一代人工智能的定义和发展的重要意义,从掌握未来战争主动权、支撑军工装备研制生产模式转型和保障国防科技先进性三个方面梳理了国防科技领域发展新一代人工智能的必要性,并从基础技术支撑和国防特色应用两个方向提出了国防科技领域发展新一代人工智能涉及的基础软硬件、标准规范、智能装备/系统、辅助作战指挥、智能研发等重点内容,在此基础上给出了相关的发展建议。以上研究可为新一代人工智能技术在国防科技领域的研究、应用和发展提供参考。     

【将军论坛】科技创新思维的哲学基础、本质特征与实践要求分析

科学技术是核心战斗力,科技创新思维是开启科技创新的“金钥匙”。为实现科技兴军目标,必须高度重视对科技创新思维的研究。本文首先提出马克思主义哲学是指导科技创新思维的锐利思想武器,并从唯物论、辨证法及认识论三个方面进行了论证;其次提出科技创新思维的三个本质特征,即新颖性、全维度和多样性;最后从五个方面提出科技创新思维的实践要求,即深刻认识创新对象、紧贴创新目标要求、重视创新实践探索、建构积淀创新知识、忠于坚守创新追求。     

The Gravity of Arms

The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of international arms transfers in a gravity model framework. By distinguishing between the decision to export arms (extensive margin) and the value of the arms exported (intensive margin), while also considering its interdependence, is what differentiates this paper from previous research. A theoretically justified gravity model of trade augmented with political and security motives is estimated using a two-stage panel data approach for 104 exporting countries over the period from 1950 to 2007. In addition to the usual gravity variables related to the economic mass of the trading countries and the trade cost factors, the model is extended with political and security factors. The level of democracy in both trading partners, political differences between trading partners and voting similarity with the United States in the UN General Assembly of the countries engaged in trade are the main political factors, whereas the existence of conflicts, military pacts, and embargoes are taken as security motives. The key result indicates that both political and security motives are an important determinant of an arms trade, but their effects on the extensive margin of exports (the decision to order a transfer) differs from their effect on the intensive margin (average value of exports). Moreover, the relative importance of the factors under study has changed since 1989. In the post-cold war period, countries that are less democratic are more likely to export arms, military pacts are less relevant and embargoes play a role.     

On Government-industry Nexus and Indigenous Armed Resistance

This paper proposes a simple game-theoretic framework for analyzing the relationship between the government, industry and indigenous community, especially in the context of mounting violence surrounding displacement of indigenous communities by governments for the purposes of commercial use of their habitat. It specifically takes into account the possibility of alleged ‘nexus’ between the government and the industry and explores its implications on the level of allocation and utilities of the players. We find that the bias in allocation that occurs when the government and the industry enter a ‘nexus’ can be rectified when there is resistance from the indigenous groups. Moreover, rebellion is a dominant strategy of the indigenous community, irrespective of whether there is ‘nexus’ or not, and being in ‘nexus’ with the government is a best response for the industry. The unique SPNE occurs when there is ‘nexus’ between the industry and the government and resistance by the indigenous groups, corroborating the widespread allegations of ‘nexus’ and evidence of resistance worldwide. We also explore a few extensions of the basic model and present some narrative evidence in support of the theoretical model.     

Military Off the Shelf Procurements: A Norwegian Case Study

Buying off the shelf procurements (OTS) has become an important part of the national acquisition strategy in several countries, and this paper seeks to bring empirical evidence on OTS as the preferred acquisition strategy by use of data from 2015 to 2022 investment portfolio of the Norwegian Armed Forces. We develop definitions for three categories of procurement – OTS, modified OTS and development projects – as well as a method to classify projects into these categories. Our first finding is that the characteristics of OTS projects correspond to modified OTS and development projects. Our second finding indicates that OTS projects perform better when it comes to the completion of projects according to the initial schedule, compared to development projects.     

Optimal control policies for an inventory system with commitment lead time

We consider a firm which faces a Poisson customer demand and uses a base‐stock policy to replenish its inventories from an outside supplier with a fixed lead time. The firm can use a preorder strategy which allows the customers to place their orders before their actual need. The time from a customer's order until the date a product is actually needed is called commitment lead time. The firm pays a commitment cost which is strictly increasing and convex in the length of the commitment lead time. For such a system, we prove the optimality of bang‐bang and all‐or‐nothing policies for the commitment lead time and the base‐stock policy, respectively. We study the case where the commitment cost is linear in the length of the commitment lead time in detail. We show that there exists a unit commitment cost threshold which dictates the optimality of either a buy‐to‐order (BTO) or a buy‐to‐stock strategy. The unit commitment cost threshold is increasing in the unit holding and backordering costs and decreasing in the mean lead time demand. We determine the conditions on the unit commitment cost for profitability of the BTO strategy and study the case with a compound Poisson customer demand.     

Buy now,pay later: American military intervention and the strategic cost paradox

This paper explores the notion that US efforts to evade the political costs of war paradoxically contribute to the subsequent exacerbation of costs over time. Leaders seek to purchase political capital in the short term by limiting the costs and requirements of military operations, but in doing so cause strategic and political liabilities to mount in the long run. While identification of such behaviour is not new, insufficient attention has been devoted to explaining its causes, dynamics, and manifestations in relation to key decisions on and in war. Evidence derived from studies of recent American discretionary campaigns is analysed to advance an argument with respect to this pattern of self-defeating strategic behaviour.     

On the roles of free play in army exercises and the Russians

The article outlines the essential role of free play elements in various types of exercises for the development of in-depth and practical military professionalism. It thereafter argues why such use of free play contradicts the military science founded Russian Way of War.     

目标宽频带RCS的快速算法研究

目标宽带RCS预估算法一直是计算电磁学的一个研究热点,本文分别研究了渐近波形估计技术（AWE）与最佳一致逼近技术在宽频带RCS预估领域内的应用。首先,介绍了传统矩量法计算RCS的原理,并分析了两种快速算法的计算过程。然后,采用这两种技术,分别计算了简易飞机模型的RCS值,并对这两种方法进行比较。计算结果表明相比传统的矩量法,这两种方法在不影响精度的前提下大大提高了计算效率。同时,相比渐近波形估计技术,最佳一致逼近技术在节省内存,节约时间方面更具优势。最后,采用最佳一致逼近理论,结合电磁计算软件,实现较大尺寸目标的宽频带RCS的计算。     

区块链在分队战术协同中的应用构想

从战术分队角度出发,探讨了区块链技术在作战实体之间的信息交互及智能协同方面的应用设想,分析了战术分队信息交互的相关技术及面临的挑战,阐述了区块链在未来战术分队指挥体系构建中的发展构想。