NONPROLIFERATION POLICY CROSSROADS:

On October 1, 2008, Congress enacted a proposal that originated with President George W. Bush in 2005 to approve an unprecedented nuclear trade pact with India by removing a central pillar of US nonproliferation policy. Despite the numerous political challenges confronting the Bush administration, the initiative won strong bipartisan support, including votes from Democratic Senators Joseph Biden, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama. The four-year struggle to pass the controversial US-India nuclear trade agreement offers an exceptionally valuable case study. It demonstrates a classic tradeoff between the pursuit of broad multilateral goals such as nuclear nonproliferation and advancement of a specific bilateral relationship. It reveals enduring fault lines in executive branch relations with Congress. It vividly portrays challenges confronting proponents of a strong nonproliferation regime. This article is based on an analysis of the negotiating record and congressional deliberations, including interviews with key participants. It assesses the lessons learned and focuses on three principal questions: how did the agreement seek to advance US national security interests?; what were the essential elements of the prolonged state-of-the-art lobbying campaign to win approval from skeptics in Congress?; and what are the agreement's actual benefits—and costs—to future US nonproliferation efforts?     

The Problem of Weak Nuclear States

Governments are increasingly recognizing the problem posed by internally weak nuclear-capable states. The problem, however, is under-theorized. This article brings together literature on sovereignty and international order, the nonproliferation regime, and weak states, and introduces new concepts to provide a more structured understanding of this problem. Insight comes from focusing attention on the function and governance of two nuclear estates (termed the production and operational estates), and on their resilience to decay and disorder occurring within the state and society. Drawing on empirical observation, the authors suggest a typology of weakness in nuclear states, involving state fragmentation typified by the former Soviet Union, the “hard weak state” typified by North Korea, and the internally conflicted state typified by Pakistan. Although these types give rise to distinctive difficulties, their alleviation depends heavily on the maintenance of internal authority within the state and estates, the presence or absence of cooperative relations, and the international regulatory framework's vitality.     

SAVING THE NPT

For more than forty years, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) has provided major security benefits to the international community; however, the treaty is suffering from internal and external pressures, and benign neglect on the part of its members is undermining its authority. To ensure the treaty's continued viability, it is time for member states to start showing the NPT the respect it deserves and to renew their commitments to its fundamental purposes. Achieving this requires remedial action in at least four areas of vulnerability: reinvigorating nuclear disarmament; strengthening nonproliferation; overcoming the NPT's institutional deficit; and fostering a rapprochement between NPT and non-NPT states that does not abandon the goal of treaty universalization. There is still time before the 2010 NPT Review Conference for concerted action to restore the NPT's vitality and for the United States to resume its leadership role on behalf of the treaty and its membership.     

基于雷达对抗侦察仿真的雷达生存能力评估系统研究

为合理有效地评估雷达在战场上的生存能力,选取截获概率作为定量评估指标,分析了侦察截获的判断条件,根据截获条件对雷达对抗侦察系统进行功能仿真,建立了基于HLA的评估系统．通过仿真得到了对应时间的截获概率,并以此作为评估雷达生存能力的定量指标．仿真结果表明,采用这种方法得到的截获概率合理,对提高雷达生存能力有一定参考意义．     

Identifying the spoilers in the security sector reform – disarmament demobilisation and reintegration process in the Congo

The Congolese security sector reform – disarmament demobilisation and reintegration (SSR-DDR) process has suffered from setbacks in its military sector during the last 10 years, such as insufficient funding, lack of coordination and domestic reluctance to major changes, with as a result, a very fragile and disjointed Army. These problems have deepened as officers have defected from the Army and caused new instability in the East of the Congo. This article aims to analyse the recent mutinies and the reaction by the Congolese government by applying a capabilities-based approach in combination with a typology of spoilers. The objective is to identify and classify the spoilers and answer the questions of why they emerge now and how they are dealt with on a national level. From the analysis, the author suggests that there are several spoilers involved in the current situation – the most powerful being the Congolese and the Rwandan governments, prompting the question of whether an international involvement is necessary to solve the problem.     

弹丸初速对磁阻型线圈发射器发射性能的影响分析

通过设置弹丸初速并研究其对单级磁阻型线圈发射器发射性能的影响,模拟分析前一级线圈弹丸出口速度对后一级线圈发射性能影响的规律;利用Ansoft有限元仿真软件进行了动态仿真,得到弹丸初速对单级磁阻型线圈发射器驱动电流、驱动线圈感应电压、电磁力、弹丸出VI速度、弹丸位移及能量转换效率等影响的规律．研究表明：弹丸初速越大,经过单级线圈加速后弹丸出口速度也越大,但弹丸出口速度增量减小;随着弹丸初速增大,能量转换效率呈现先增大后减小的趋势．     

基于ANSYS的舰船武器装备基准变化分析方法

舰船武器装备基准在外界环境作用下产生变化,从而影响武器系统的打击精度。应用ANSYS平台建立舰船有限元模型,利用三维波浪载荷的计算方法模拟航行条件下的波浪力,研究了舰船甲板面武器装备基准在两种极限海况下的变化情况,发现针对此类舰船横摇使武器装备基准产生较大的变化,并且靠近尾部和两舷位置处装备的基准变化较为显著。仿真结果表明：当舰船在风浪中航行使用武器系统时,应尽量采取顶浪航行,减少舰船横摇对武器系统基准的影响。     

基于效能的舰艇电子对抗训练效果评估方法

摘 要：为解决舰艇电子对抗专业训练缺乏统一评估标准与方法体系等实际评估难题;采用系统分析方法结合舰艇电子对抗专业训练实际;研究提出了基于“任务要求分解”的作战效能量化指标体系构建方法、训练效果表达方法及实用评估指标体系、定量指标评估模型、评估标准等舰艇电子对抗训练效果评估方法体系;能够满足专业训练效果评估所需,对其它专业军事训练效果评估工作亦具有借鉴意义。     

一种基于层次分析法的舰炮武器系统选型综合评价模型

针对舰炮武器系统选型配置决策中众多制约因素难以平衡兼顾的难题,本文基于层次分析法,综合了作战效能、全寿命周期费用、研制周期、适装性、技术可行性和发展潜力等多变量因素,提出并建立了一套综合优化舰炮武器系统选型配置方案的方法和模型,实现了舰炮武器系统选型配置问题的优化决策,最后以大口径主炮武器系统发展选型为例,给出了模型的应用实例。     

基于北斗、短波的高精度时钟系统研究与设计

介绍了北斗、短波授时技术;对高稳恒温晶振及其频率特性进行分析的基础上,设计了一种基于北斗卫星、短波无线电授时的高精度时钟系统;该系统通过利用北斗接收处理模块、短波授时接收模块得到的秒脉冲信号、时间信息,经过延迟修正处理、脉冲滤波、脉冲补偿、脉冲统计得到标准的秒脉冲信号,实现对恒温晶振频率的校准,获得一个短期及长期频率稳定度都比较优良的时间频率标准,同时利用校频后恒温晶振分频出的1pps信号对时间芯片进行校准,对外输出高精度时间信息;对恒温晶振校频系统的基本工作原理及部分模块电路图进行了说明,试验结果表明,在时间不长于1h内,频率准确度优于1×10-10;该系统实用方便的方法达到了将晶体振荡器校准到较高指标的目的。