基于博弈论的装备采办成本控制问题研究

从武器装备采办的理论需求出发,以博弈论为理论工具,对武器装备采办过程中的生产成本控制问题进行了分析;建立了基于激励的生产成本控制模型,并对成本控制模型的特点进行了分析和解释;针对军方在激励合同执行过程中有可能出现的2类错误,对成本控制模型进行了优化。在非对称信息条件下,优化后的成本控制模型不但能有效减少2类错误的发生,而且可提高军方装备采办效用,减少代理方合同风险。     

基于博弈论的装备采购定价激励模型

不同的定价方式和定价参数的选择对于承包商会起到不同程度的激励作用。为提高装备采购效益,在承包商追求效用最大化假设的基础上,建立了装备采购完全信息动态博弈模型。对价格、成本、承包商努力程度和承包商效用之间的关系进行了研究,证明了成本分担和固定价格的定价方式能够有效激励承包商提高自身努力水平降低成本,并提出了2种定价方式的参数定量计算方法。     

基于灰关联的砖混建筑抗震易损性指标重要性研究

采用灰关联分析法,通过对大量工程震害数据分析,得出了各砖混结构建筑抗震易损性评价指标与震害的灰关联系数,建立了建筑抗震易损性评价指标重要性模型,并以此依据对结构抗震易损性评价指标的影响程度进一步分析,筛选出影响其灾害损失的主要因素,使得砖混结构建筑抗震易损性预测结果定量化、合理化。     

一种新的基本概率函数构建方法及应用

针对Dempster-Shafer(D-S)证据推理中基本概率赋值函数的构造问题,基于模糊聚类分析给出了一种新的构建方法.将它应用到雷达目标识别的仿真实验中,并与灰关联法相比较,结果表明该方法切实可行,不仅提高了基本概率赋值的准确性和稳定性,而且利用了数据的结构信息,有效缓解了证据的冲突.     

复杂电磁环境下的电磁频谱管理效能评估研究

针对复杂电磁环境下的电磁频谱管理效能评估问题,提出一套系统地效能评估方法.首先对效能评估的指标体系进行了分析,然后提出了一种多模型混合的效能评估方法,最后对整个过程中效能评估的流程进行研究.通过实例仿真研究表明,该方法可以有效地对复杂电磁频谱下的电磁频谱管理效能进行评估.     

陆军武器装备综合集成体系的系统效能评估模型*

陆军武器装备综合集成体系的系统效能评估是体系建设的的重要内容.给出了基于ADC方法研究的陆军武器装备综合集成体系的可用性和可信性定量评估模型,并结合应用示例评估了两种作战模式下某防空系统的作战能力和系统效能,通过评估结果的比较分析,验证了所建模型的有效性.     

Dynamics in pastoral resource management and conflict in the Borana rangelands of southern Ethiopia

Based on primary and secondary data, this paper provides a qualitative account of current changes in the pattern of natural resource management as a result of resource degradation and conflict in the Borana rangelands of southern Ethiopia. Population pressure, recurrent drought and the depleted carrying capacity of pastoral resources, as well as the encroachment of neighbouring ethnic groups, present the Borana community with a significant challenge. The diminishing resilience of traditional politico-judicial institutions under the famous Gada system often result in the rise of new forms of land use such as farming and private enclosures, which compete with the traditional communal tenure system. The gradual collapse of traditional norms and value systems and the apparent inefficiency in the formal administrative structures have exacerbated the problems of resource degradation and conflict between multiple resource-users.     

A Critique of the Right Intention Condition as an Element of Jus ad Bellum

According to just war theory, a resort to war is justified only if it satisfies the right intention condition. This article offers a critical examination of this condition, defending the thesis that, despite its venerable history as part of the just war tradition, it ought to be jettisoned. When properly understood, it turns out to be an unnecessary element of jus ad bellum, adding nothing essential to our assessments of the justice of armed conflict.     

Defining quantitative criteria for the physical protection system effectiveness of nuclear facilities

The article is devoted to problems of defining quantitative criteria for the physical protection system (PPS) effectiveness of nuclear facilities. The article briefly describes the scheme of the PPS development used in the nuclear industry in Russia, gives a review of existing approaches to defining the minimal acceptable value of the system's effectiveness, and reveals advantages and disadvantages of the approaches. The article describes in detail an approach based on facility categorization by potential losses and a technique of defining the minimal acceptable value of the PPS effectiveness developed on its base.     

North European security after the Ukraine conflict†

Russia’s illegal occupation and annexation of the Crimean peninsula in February–March 2014, and the country’s well-documented involvement in the separatist conflict in Eastern Ukraine, have led to a significant worsening of Russia’s relations with the West. Vladimir Putin’s move to redraw Russia’s southern borders through the use of military force and subversive measures has given rise to an uncertainty that goes well beyond the post-Soviet space. Since 2014, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has had to reassess many aspects of its relationship with Russia. The alliance has also initiated various measures to strengthen the military security of its eastern member states, particularly the Baltic states, Poland, and Romania. Further to the North, NATO’s northernmost member – Norway – is following developments in Russia with a heightened sense of awareness. The same goes for non-aligned Sweden and Finland, which are trying to adapt to the emerging, and increasingly complex, security environment in Northern Europe.