基于灰色AHP方法的综合航电系统效能

针对在对综合航电系统效能进行评估的过程中经常遇到多指标度量效能的情况,提出了一种将层次分析法和灰色系统理论相结合的效能评估方法,对航空电子系统中多指标度量效能进行评估.最后,通过实例计算表明使用这种方法获得的评估结果更加客观、科学,对综合航空电子系统效能的评估具有一定的参考价值.     

基于HLA的防区外空面导弹攻防对抗仿真

针对HLA/RTI在接口规范、对象模型模板等关键技术建立分布式仿真平台的复杂性,提出了利用数字武器开发平台进行开发的方法,构建防区外空面导弹攻防对抗系统体系结构,实现了该体系结构联邦成员划分、设计联邦/仿真对象模型表等HLA仿真关键技术,并采用面向对象建模与仿真技术建立了各联邦成员的数学模型.该仿真结果表明,各联邦成员的数学模型与底层支撑环境能够相互分离,仿真模型具有良好的交互性和互操作性,可通过添加或删除联邦成员仿真不同的复杂战场想定,并可作为验证不同算例的仿真平台.     

基于区间数理论的空战目标威胁评估

针对空战目标威胁评估问题,提出了一种新的基于区间数理论的评估方法。在分析了现有的目标威胁评估方法中距离威胁模型存在不足的基础上,提出了改进的距离威胁模型。给出了区间数特征向量法求解威胁指标权重的计算步骤,建立了基于区间数理论的空战目标威胁评估的数学模型。最后给出了仿真算例,仿真结果表明该方法是合理和有效的。     

Component importance for linear consecutive‐ k ‐Out‐of‐ n and m ‐Consecutive‐ k ‐Out‐of‐ n systems with exchangeable components

Measuring the relative importance of components in a mechanical system is useful for various purposes. In this article, we study Birnbaum and Barlow‐Proschan importance measures for two frequently studied system designs: linear consecutive k ‐out‐of‐ n and m ‐consecutive‐ k ‐out‐of‐ n systems. We obtain explicit expressions for the component importance measures for systems consisting of exchangeable components. We illustrate the results for a system whose components have a Lomax type lifetime distribution. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

When Peacekeepers Fail Thousands are Going to Die. The ETO in Rwanda: a Story of Deception

This study develops the concepts of fourth generation operations and the associated principles. First, the concept of fourth generation operations is introduced and defined. Fourth generation operations are the evolution and extension of third and fourth generation warfare based on a change of tactics, technology, and combatants. These operations are currently ongoing in Afghanistan and Iraq, and with the global war on terrorism. Based on the framework of US joint doctrine, the supporting principles of fourth generation operations are developed. This requires the introduction of the principle of Population Perception.     

The effect of catastrophes on the strategic customer behavior in queueing systems

We consider the single server Markovian queue subject to Poisson generated catastrophes. Whenever a catastrophe occurs, all customers are forced to abandon the system, the server is rendered inoperative and an exponential repair time is set on. During the repair time new arrivals are allowed to join the system. We assume that the arriving customers decide whether to join the system or balk, based on a natural linear reward‐cost structure with two types of rewards: A (usual) service reward for those customers that receive service and a (compensation) failure reward for those customers that are forced to abandon the system due to a catastrophe. We study the strategic behavior of the customers regarding balking and derive the corresponding (Nash) equilibrium strategies for the observable and unobservable cases. We show that both types of strategic behavior may be optimal: to avoid the crowd or to follow it. The crucial factor that determines the type of customer behavior is the relative value of the service reward to the failure compensation. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

Nonparametric bayesian lifetime data analysis using dirichlet process lognormal mixture model

We propose a nonparametric Bayesian lifetime data analysis method using the Dirichlet process mixture model with a lognormal kernel. A simulation‐based algorithm that implements the Gibbs sampling is developed to fit the Dirichlet process lognormal mixture (DPLNM) model using rightly censored failure time data. Five examples are used to illustrate the proposed method, and the DPLNM model is compared to the Dirichlet process Weibull mixture (DPWM) model. Results indicate that the DPLNM model is capable of estimating different lifetime distributions. The DPLNM model outperforms the DPWM model in all the examples, and the DPLNM model shows promising potential to be applied to analyze failure time data when an appropriate parametric model for the data cannot be specified. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

Putin's Wars: The Rise of Russia's New Imperialism

ABSTRACT

This article discusses the Rhodesian Front regime propaganda warfare strategy during Zimbabwe’s war of liberation. It uses the case of the Chilonga area of Chiredzi located in the south-east of Zimbabwe to demonstrate that propaganda warfare was introduced as a measure to counter guerrilla infiltration and civilian cooperation with them. Drawing on ideas of military anthropology vis-à-vis the importance of cultural awareness in counterinsurgency, the paper argues that the efforts of the Rhodesian Front regime to use propaganda were fruitless. This is because they mostly ignored the culture of the Shangani, local people. Despite that, there were other reasons for the failure of the Rhodesian Front’s propaganda strategy, including the lack of conformity between politics and military action.     

Croatia's bitter harvest: Total National Defence's role in the Croatian War of Independence

Croatia's successful bid for independence was one of the defining moments of the immediate post-Cold War period. Nevertheless, the means that Croatia used to obtain independence remains relatively unexamined by academics. This article focuses on the early period of Croatia's bid for secession, and specifically the role that Yugoslavia's policy of Total National Defence played in facilitating its independence. Unlike in Slovenia, where the legacies of Total National Defence facilitated Slovenia's bid for secession, in Croatia the decision of its political leaders meant that the country largely neglected its positive legacies, resulting in a protracted four-year struggle.     

Unraveling the violence in Kazakhstan

There were several high-profile violent incidents in 2011 in Kazakhstan, including several bombings, shootings that targeted police, and a protest turned clash that resulted in a number of deaths. Some of the perpetrators reportedly had links with radical religious groups. An overlooked aspect of the violence is how it is reported in Kazakhstan. There are active, competent media in Kazakhstan, which are largely unknown in the West. An examination of these incidents using the media in Kazakhstan can provide a unique insight into what took place. While Western sources quickly blamed radical religious groups with international connections, media in Kazakhstan have found that there are other reasons for the violence.