Expansion planning for waste‐to‐energy systems using waste forecast prediction sets

We consider an expansion planning problem for Waste‐to‐Energy (WtE) systems facing uncertainty in future waste supplies. The WtE expansion plans are regarded as strategic, long term decisions, while the waste distribution and treatment are medium to short term operational decisions which can adapt to the actual waste collected. We propose a prediction set uncertainty model which integrates a set of waste generation forecasts and is constructed based on user‐specified levels of forecasting errors. Next, we use the prediction sets for WtE expansion scenario analysis. More specifically, for a given WtE expansion plan, the guaranteed net present value (NPV) is evaluated by computing an extreme value forecast trajectory of future waste generation from the prediction set that minimizes the maximum NPV of the WtE project. This problem is essentially a multiple stage min‐max dynamic optimization problem. By exploiting the structure of the WtE problem, we show this is equivalent to a simpler min‐max optimization problem, which can be further transformed into a single mixed‐integer linear program. Furthermore, we extend the model to optimize the guaranteed NPV by searching over the set of all feasible expansion scenarios, and show that this can be solved by an exact cutting plane approach. We also propose a heuristic based on a constant proportion distribution rule for the WtE expansion optimization model, which reduces the problem into a moderate size mixed‐integer program. Finally, our computational studies demonstrate that our proposed expansion model solutions are very stable and competitive in performance compared to scenario tree approaches. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 47–70, 2016     

高双折射光子晶体光纤用于温度传感的研究

文中分析了高双折射光子晶体光纤用于温度传感的应用。在高双折射光子晶体光纤的特定空气孔中填充折射率温度系数高的液体材料,温度的变化会导致光纤传输特性的变化,通过检测其双折射的变化从而实现温度传感。文中运用平面波扩展法计算分析了该新型光子晶体光纤的双折射特性随温度变化的关系。     

圆锥薄壳热应力分析的分布参数传递函数方法

为分析圆锥壳的热应力问题,建立了圆锥壳热弹性问题的基本微分方程,运用分布参数传递函数方法求解了受温度场作用圆锥壳的位移与热应力.计算结果表明,解析解与有限元解吻合良好.该方法可以对不同边界条件下圆锥壳的热变形和热应力问题进行分析,还可以推广到旋转壳母线形状为曲线的情况.     

纤维增强SiO2气凝胶隔热复合材料的制备及其性能

将无机陶瓷纤维与SiO2溶胶混合,经超临界干燥制备了SiO2气凝胶隔热复合材料。SiO2气凝胶纤细的骨架颗粒减少了固态热传导,纳米级孔减少了气体热传导和对流传热,同时无机陶瓷纤维减少了辐射传热。SiO2气凝胶复合材料具有良好的隔热性能,其200℃和800℃的热导率分别为0.017W/m.K和0.042W/m.K。纤维的加入提供了力学支撑,高温处理增强了气凝胶骨架强度,材料在常温和高温下均具有良好的力学性能,其常温的拉伸、弯曲和抗压强度分别为1.44MPa、1.31MPa和0.98MPa(10%应变),800℃的拉伸、弯曲和抗压强度分别为1.95MPa、1.80MPa和1.42MPa(10%应变)。     

多芯片焊球阵列封装体受热载荷作用数值模拟

针对典型高密度多芯片BGA(焊球阵列)封装体建立三维有限元分析模型,研究不同尺寸封装体在稳态热载荷作用下的结构变形和应力情况,在此基础上引入包含等效梁和危险焊球真实几何形状和间距等在内的简化模型以进行序列分析,研究各设计参数对力学参量的影响。数值结果反映了封装体应力分布及其变化特点,表明影响封装体变形和应力的主要参数;提出的建模方法简便有效,可以方便地用来分析不同类型的BGA封装,并扩展应用至不同的分析目的,为此种结构的设计和优化提供一定参考。     

基于加速性能退化的雷达电源板可靠性评估

评估雷达系统可靠性时,失效寿命难以获得,性能退化数据成为评估可靠性的重要信息。对其中器件级信息充足,板级、分系统级、系统级现场试验信息缺乏,而收集这些部分的退化数据仍需较长时间,以雷达某一部分的整体为研究对象进行加速退化试验,验证是否存在累积效应及有规律的退化过程。以某雷达电源整板为例,在温度应力下进行恒加加速退化试验,观测到特征退化量电源板输出电压随温度变化的退化规律,进行统计推断。结果表明基于加速退化数据进行该部分可靠性分析方法可行、结果可信,且更具优势,为雷达系统可靠性评估及增强可信度奠定基础。     

潜艇指控系统技术和发展分析

介绍和分析了国外潜艇指控系统的发展概况和技术特点,然后回顾了国内潜艇指控系统发展。从满足未来海军潜艇作战需求出发,论述了一体化建设对潜艇指挥体系的重要性及下一代潜艇指控系统的能力需求,提出了着重要解决的技术问题。     

Equilibrium customer strategies and social–profit maximization in the single‐server constant retrial queue

We consider the single‐server constant retrial queue with a Poisson arrival process and exponential service and retrial times. This system has not waiting space, so the customers that find the server busy are forced to abandon the system, but they can leave their contact details. Hence, after a service completion, the server seeks for a customer among those that have unsuccessfully applied for service but left their contact details, at a constant retrial rate. We assume that the arriving customers that find the server busy decide whether to leave their contact details or to balk based on a natural reward‐cost structure, which incorporates their desire for service as well as their unwillingness to wait. We examine the customers' behavior, and we identify the Nash equilibrium joining strategies. We also study the corresponding social and profit maximization problems. We consider separately the observable case where the customers get informed about the number of customers waiting for service and the unobservable case where they do not receive this information. Several extensions of the model are also discussed. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

光子晶体光纤的空气孔膨胀和拉锥技术研究

光子晶体光纤的空气孔膨胀和拉锥技术是一种有效的改变光纤结构参数的技术手段.空气孔膨胀可以改变空气孔的填充比例,即改变空气孔直径和孔间距的大小,光纤拉锥可在保持空气孔直径和孔间距比例不变的情况下改变纤芯的大小.光子晶体光纤结构参数的可控性改变可实现一些特殊光子晶体光纤器件的制作,对进一步实现和挖掘光子晶体光纤的潜在应用价...     

Polaris,East of Suez: British Plans for a Nuclear Force in the Indo-Pacific, 1964–1968

This article investigates the little-known plans formulated by Harold Wilson's Labour government to deploy Polaris submarines in the Indo-Pacific region. The scheme was first proposed in 1965 as a response to several problems faced by British policy-makers, including China's acquisition of a nuclear capability, Britain's wish to maintain a meaningful position ‘East of Suez’ at reduced cost, and German pressure for equal treatment within NATO on nuclear matters. Despite extensive high-level discussion, the plans were finally abandoned in mid-1968, as Labour moved more decisively to forsake the world role.