基于三角模糊熵的装备维修合同商评价与选择

装备维修合同商保障能力评价是军民融合装备维修招投标过程中合理选择最优合同商的基础.通过对招投标过程及以往资料的研究,在考虑部队装备维修保障特殊性的基础上,从合同商资质、技术能力、管理水平和价格成本4个方面构建装备维修合同商评价指标体系,并运用基于三角模糊熵的综合评价法进行评价.综合运用三角模糊法和熵值法,针对评价指标的模糊性和不确定性,采用三角模糊数对定性指标量化处理,又用熵权反映出指标竞争的相对激烈程度,计算出评价对象与理想点的贴近度和距离,据此对评价对象进行优劣排序,最后通过实例进行了验证.     

空域窗射击毁歼概率解析计算模型

为提高未来空域窗射击技术对空中机动目标的毁伤概率,需要根据目标机动幅度对未来空域窗的大小进行动态设定,故提出“自适应射击窗”的概念.空域窗大小设定的依据是使毁歼概率最优.可以采用解析法来在线计算该毁歼概率值.在分析空域窗射击误差的基础上,演绎了均匀分布法与高斯和法两种毁歼概率解析计算方法的公式.以毁歼概率蒙特卡罗法仿真数据为基准值,对两种解析法的计算精度进行了对比分析.仿真结果表明,高斯和法的计算精度显著优于均匀分布法,且满足实时计算要求,适于在线评估空域窗的射击效能.     

Dynamic regulation on innovation and adoption of green technology with information asymmetry

This study investigates a regulator's dynamic policy to motivate firms' research on and adoption of green technology. In the proposed model, a firm makes unobservable efforts and can hide the technology's arrival from the regulator to avoid adoption costs. We find that the optimal policy follows a simple structure and induces part-time efforts, rather than the maximal effort reported in previous studies. In particular, the regulator should offer no subsidy before the arrival of a technology report, provide a one-time subsidy contingent upon that report, and always set a termination deadline. At the deadline, the firm is forced to select an external option that is associated with social costs. The optimal report-based subsidy decreases with time. Under the optimal policy, the firm works until an effort deadline, makes no effort thereafter, and reports the technology as soon as it arrives. This study also characterizes the necessary and sufficient conditions under which the optimal policy reduces to one that leads, in terms of throughout time, to effort that is maximal or minimal. Our results indicate that policymakers should implement a policy that compensates firms more in the present and less in the future.     

One-bit splitting deceptive jamming against SAR

One-bit quantization is a promising technique due to its performance retention and complexity reduction in a deceptive jammer against synthetic aperture radar (SAR). In this paper, the 1-bit quantization technology is utilized to agilely generate split false targets in the SAR imagery once the radar signal is intercepted, which reduces the complexity of the jammer significantly with guaranteed focusing quality. A single-frequency threshold is used to decompose harmonics incurred by the 1-bit quantization, and its parameters are adjusted through different pulse repetition intervals to provide steerable modulations. In this way, the SAR signal is split into coupled false scatterers during the 1-bit interception. By further deploying amplitude, time-delay, and Doppler frequency modulations on the 1-bit intercepted signal, the split false targets are created. The proposed approach is compared with different deceptive jamming methods to show its validity in effectiveness and cost, and numerical experiments are also presented for verification.     

快速传递对准的抗野值方法研究

快速传递对准对滤波精度与收敛速度有着严格的要求,而测量野点的存在会严重破坏传递对准的精度。提出了一种新的抗野值滤波方法,在线取测量信号的一个小区间,采用正向对称延拓的方法构成新序列并对其进行小波阈值去噪,检测出野点,用前几个周期的信号构造新的测量值进行Kalman滤波,有效地剔除了野点的影响,滤波系统保持了很好的精度,满足了传递对准的要求。     

火灾安全评价方法研究

火灾安全评价是利用系统工程的方法对拟建或已有工程、系统可能存在的危险性及可能产生的后果进行综合评价和预测,并根据可能导致的火灾事故风险的大小,提出相应的安全对策措施,以达到工程、系统安全的过程。主要论述了火灾安全评价的目的、火灾安全评价的意义、火灾安全评价的一般程序、火灾安全评价方法选择、火灾安全评价方法的比较及火灾安全评价方法在消防中应用。     

基于DS/AHP的导弹发射阵地选择方法

战术导弹发射阵地选择是导弹作战兵力运筹的重要组成部分,其本质是一多准则多属性决策问题。传统的层次分析法无法明确描述这类问题中所蕴涵的不确定性,通过DS证据理论的引入,研究了战术导弹发射阵地选择的DS/AHP方法,应用实例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

GNSS多系统联合的探月飞行器轨道定位分析*

为适应深空探测的应用需求,全球卫星导航系统对深空飞行器定位的可行性问题备受关注。针对探月飞行器月球公转轨道上的GNSS定位问题,以高轨道飞行器GNSS定位的研究为基础,采用多系统联合定位的方法进行仿真。分析了载波功率与噪声功率密度比为15dB-Hz的弱信号捕获门限下,各系统联合定位时波束主瓣和旁瓣的可用性,同时对各系统联合情况下的精度因子值进行分析。仿真结果表明：当接收到的卫星天线辐射的主瓣和旁瓣信号均高于载噪比门限时,全球卫星导航系统的三系统或四系统的联合能满足实时定位条件;而旁瓣损耗不加以补偿时,接收信号载噪比低于门限并导致任意联合方式均无法完成定位。各系统联合的精度因子分析表明：单系统或双系统联合的几何精度因子变化剧烈,四系统联合相比三系统联合的几何精度因子下降16.93%;三系统联合定位方案中,美国全球定位系统、中国的北斗卫星导航定位系统与欧洲的伽利略卫星导航定位系统联合方案的几何精度因子值变化最平稳,为最佳选择。理论分析和仿真结果为探月飞行器定位技术研究和星载多系统接收机设计提供参考。     

基于GQM的装备软件可靠性参数选取方法

针对装备软件无可靠性定量要求以及开发过程缺少监管的问题,提出基于GQM(Goal-Question-Metric)的装备软件可靠性参数选取方法。首先构建了软件可靠性通用参数集和装备软件可靠性特有参数集,然后按照GQM方法的框架,从不同角度出发,制定装备软件可靠性度量目标,列出为实现目标需要回答的一系列问题,进而以回答问题的方式,确定不同情况下适用的软件可靠性参数,最终建立装备软件可靠性参数体系。     

A nonatomic‐game model for timing clearance sales under competition

We deal with dynamic revenue management (RM) under competition using the nonatomic‐game approach. Here, a continuum of heterogeneous sellers try to sell the same product over a given time horizon. Each seller can lower his price once at the time of his own choosing, and faces Poisson demand arrival with a rate that is the product of a price‐sensitive term and a market‐dependent term. Different types of sellers interact, and their respective prices help shape the overall market in which they operate, thereby influencing the behavior of all sellers. Using the infinite‐seller approximation, which deprives any individual seller of his influence over the entire market, we show the existence of a certain pattern of seller behaviors that collectively produce an environment to which the behavior pattern forms a best response. Such equilibrium behaviors point to the suitability of threshold‐like pricing policies. Our computational study yields insights to RM under competition, such as profound ways in which consumer and competitor types influence seller behaviors and market conditions. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 365–385, 2014